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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

One thing to watch regarding another flip flop....   The 12z op track of the low is almost an identical track to the 00z slp mean track.

Yes, it is all in the depth of the trough, and lord knows Euro can overly dig a trough.

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Consensus seems to be converging on a STL-IND-DTX special based on today. 3 days out, and I'm still not to dissapointed where I sit as a lot still to be told in this tale. Just nice to see a big winter storm lighting up the board.Could be worse I could live in Caledonia.:lol:

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the frustrating thing about this one for mby is most of the models have a track that I would draw on paper...  and yet we're still slopp'n n slott'n.

Low from the AL/MS border to E. TN to Central WV to White Plains NY...   If you asked me if I'd rather be in Indy or CMH with a track like that I'd choose CMH every time...and yet :axe:

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For Ohio...the track of the surface low is perfect for a big dog. The question becomes....how quickly will the cold air get pulled in once the cold front passes. May not know for a day or two....or even more...if the track now holds. IF there was antecedent cold air prior to the storm....much more certain of snow...and not ice/sleet/rain.

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5 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

I still like 2004 now that the Euro is caving east.  Don't give up just yet.

I mentioned that one yesterday as one of the few NE moving lows in this region that also had a corridor of significant ice.  This storm may actually be more robust at 500mb if the models are reasonably correct at the moment, but the SLP track could be pretty close. 

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The dumb Detroit free press put out a headline about more snow coming to southeast MI Friday with 5-8". That irritates me to no end. Now the public will have a field day as word spreads like wildfire.

I tweeted the writer of the article, I am pretty sure he doesn't know the difference between NWS and TWC...

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22 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

I still like 2004 now that the Euro is caving east.  Don't give up just yet.

Ugh 2004, I remember that storm well.  The age of, can’t exactly work remote just yet and worked for a bank at Easton.  I literally slid the whole way into work and Easton looked like a nuclear bomb went off and everyone perished, it was eerily quiet and dark.

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1 minute ago, NTXYankee said:

Ugh 2004, I remember that storm well.  The age of, can’t exactly work remote just yet and worked for a bank at Easton.  I literally slid the whole way into work and Easton looked like a nuclear bomb went off and everyone perished, it was eerily quiet and dark.

Easton!!!   That's one of the first places I think of when I think of that 2004 storm.    Franklin County was the dividing county between epic icestorm and massive snow storm.   I was right in between.  But Easton got CLOCKED with ice being on the east side.   My folk lived near there and were without power for a week.   If you remember temps dropped into the singles and teens in the wake of that storm which drove the misery factor to a 10 when you figure in all the power outtages.   Then add in the fact that it was a week before Christmas.   Brutal.

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Easton!!!   That's one of the first places I think of when I think of that 2004 storm.    Franklin County was the dividing county between epic icestorm and massive snow storm.   I was right in between.  But Easton got CLOCKED with ice being on the east side.   My folk lived near there and were without power for a week.   If you remember temps dropped into the singles and teens in the wake of that storm which drove the misery factor to a 10 when you figure in all the power outtages.   Then add in the fact that it was a week before Christmas.   Brutal.

Actually just a couple of days. But whose counting.:lol:

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What's the spread like?  A lot of variance or pretty clustered?

Not sure how the board feels about WxBell images, so if this is bad then please remove the images...but since I'm pretty callous with my subscription...

5a551b54bc12d_EPS1.thumb.png.d1f2c9e0a6f050995dcffe4bd96aa4ec.png

5a551b6ba9972_EPS2.thumb.png.773e348197a4c31b614a09bba5df3682.png

I would say that's actually decent clustering.  I think it lost a number of western outliers and maybe added a couple of crappier/weak/SE outliers from the last run, but decent clustering there from central IN to the Lake Erie region as a bullseye.  The bigger cluster definitely shifted SE.  

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