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January 11-13 Winter Storm


Hoosier

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21 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wanted to second the point about the great LOT afd.  Valuable to read even if you're not in their zone.

There are good arguments either way for this trending north or south, so I really have no idea about which way it ends up going.  The problem with this one for areas like mine is that the 00z Euro basically has to be 100% correct... there is no room for compromise as even a 70-80% Euro solution is not good enough. Could it be that far northwest?  Maybe, but it's not necessarily a good predicament to be in.

I feel your pain. Even if euro verifies 100% right now I still wouldn't see much. I would need an even more nw shift to happen

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13 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I feel your pain. Even if euro verifies 100% right now I still wouldn't see much. I would need an even more nw shift to happen

Whatever happens happens.  Best advice is to not get too personally invested.  I might start getting more invested if I were farther south though :P

 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Whatever happens happens.  Best advice is to not get too personally invested.  I might start getting more invested if I were farther south though :P

 

Agree with you 100%. Before everyone here starts to get worked up about this storm - at this point it is 50/50 - still much to be known and still some guidance wanting to transfer this sucker to the east coast just to leave us with pixie dust and a broken heart. 

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Whatever happens happens.  Best advice is to not get too personally invested.  I might start getting more invested if I were farther south though :P

 

Hoosier, I am one to normally be a downer, but seriously wouldn't write this off for you, particularly with the LE possibility.

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6 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Hoosier, I am one to normally be a downer, but seriously wouldn't write this off for you, particularly with the LE possibility.

It's got my attention and am certainly not writing it off.  I am very guarded though.

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Since I was catching up on things, I am glad to see the GFS jumped left considerably. The NAM extrapolated would be even further left than that. Both are still wonky with the low tracks due to convective feedback issues, wanting to force the low with the convective blob down south. Otherwise the consensus is narrowing and this is really starting to look damn good for places like STL IND DTW YYZ with places like ORD GRR potentially in the snow game and Ohio would get crushed with ice same with far western NY.

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7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Since I was catching up on things, I am glad to see the GFS jumped left considerably. The NAM extrapolated would be even further left than that. Both are still wonky with the low tracks due to convective feedback issues, wanting to force the low with the convective blob down south. Otherwise the consensus is narrowing and this is really starting to look damn good for places like STL IND DTW YYZ with places like ORD GRR potentially in the snow game and Ohio would get crushed with ice same with far western NY.

Would love a good ice storm here. It’s been a decade since the last good one. 

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