Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 12z CMC and 12z GFS are quite similar track wise. 12z CMC is a bit slower, thus gets better interaction with the kicker, but overall it remains consistent with near similar H5 pattern and vort placement between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said: I think the Euro is too far west now and will nudge east. Only question is where they all meet in the middle. I keep thinking about December 2004. Would be a heartbreaker for Central Ohio in terms of snow (2004 was 6.6" and lots of ice), but not horrible for a storm. I thought about that one too (2004). Similar in that the cold air came in with it rather than being in place. In fact it was suppose to be primarily a rain to mix event but the cold came in quicker and it was a surprise snow storm....turning to ice. Of course the artic air mass that came in was also stronger for that one. I think for this storm the truth lies between the euro and gfs which doesn't bode to well for us since we can't take too much of a nw or warmer solution than what the gfs shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 First call jackpots Detriot to Toronto. Lots of ice potential on the eastern side of the storm. Copious amounts of QPF with this one. Should be one of the biggest winter storms in awhile around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: I thought about that one too (2004). Similar in that the cold air came in with it rather than being in place. In fact it was suppose to be primarily a rain to mix event but the cold came in quicker and it was a surprise snow storm....turning to ice. Of course the artic air mass that came in was also stronger for that one. I think for this storm the truth lies between the euro and gfs which doesn't bode to well for us since we can't take too much of a nw or warmer solution than what the gfs shows. The one difference is that, as you said, 2004 was snow to ice. This one looks like rain to ice to snow at the tail end. Only question is when the changeover occurs. Rain to snow scenarios are notoriously difficult to predict along 71, which is so often the literal dividing line. Of course, if the Euro is right, that line will be well west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 hour ago, King James said: We haven’t seen snow in Chicago in so long that we’d throw stones at it . The GHD Storm, The Super bowl Sunday storm and the historic winter of 2014 argue differently. We've had many great winters in the past 10-15 years begs to differ. To keep this post relevant to the existing storm I hope it hits Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, mimillman said: Unchanged? It just shifted a solid 100-150 miles northwest... The writing is on the wall for this one... GFS has started the trend to the Euro as expected. Michigan may end up with some rather remarkable snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, MikeGold said: The writing is on the wall for this one... GFS has started the trend to the Euro as expected. Michigan may end up with some rather remarkable snow totals. No one is really mentioning the comparable shift west in the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, MikeGold said: The writing is on the wall for this one... GFS has started the trend to the Euro as expected. Michigan may end up with some rather remarkable snow totals. Keep in mind, it’s not like the Euro has been a pillar of run to run consistency. It’s been waffling east/west too. So it’s hard to say the GFS is “caving” to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 buckeye shouldn't be sweating, the GFS is in agreement with the FIM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, JayPSU said: Keep in mind, it’s not like the Euro has been a pillar of run to run consistency. It’s been waffling east/west too. So it’s hard to say the GFS is “caving” to the Euro. True but the 0Z run was consistent with its own ensemble members which probably means future model shifts will be minimal. QPF's totals may come down as really that can't realistically go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 That's a scary gradient on the 12z GFS. Goes from 10" on the lower east side of the city to 1" on the far NW side of the city (Detroit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looks like extreme NW Ohio is missing out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, sparky333 said: Looks like extreme NW Ohio is missing out on this one. Na you're good. West of Toledo lots of snow, Cleveland ice, Columbus rain/some ice is my current lean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, sparky333 said: Looks like extreme NW Ohio is missing out on this one. You are very much still in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, IWXwx said: buckeye shouldn't be sweating, the GFS is in agreement with the FIM: AWESOME! I understand there was a FIM upgrade this fall too!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, OHweather said: Na you're good. West of Toledo lots of snow, Cleveland ice, Columbus rain/some ice is my current lean I was sweating it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 It's times like this I really miss the DGEX. Could always count on getting a stroke or two from it when you needed one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 3 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: That was quite a nw shift on 0z euro. If this secondary energy goes negative tilt quicker could see see a more nw track. Curious if this trend continues. Cutoff is quite brutal with this. LOT had an excellent write up this morning Wanted to second the point about the great LOT afd. Valuable to read even if you're not in their zone. There are good arguments either way for this trending north or south, so I really have no idea about which way it ends up going. The problem with this one for areas like mine is that the 00z Euro basically has to be 100% correct... there is no room for compromise as even a 70-80% Euro solution is not good enough. Could it be that far northwest? Maybe, but it's not necessarily a good predicament to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I’ll take the “make everyone happy” solution from the CMC which gives my back yard 9” of snow after a change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 At first glance, the 12z Ukie seems relatively like the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 12z UK appears very close to the 0z run from the low-res 24 hourly meteocentre graphics. Edit: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: At first glance, the 12z Ukie seems relatively like the 00z run. looks that way to me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 where the hell is that progressive trend that has been shafting us for the last 3 seasons??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 minute ago, buckeye said: where the hell is that progressive trend that has been shafting us for the last 3 seasons??? Shhhh, you might make it mad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: At first glance, the 12z Ukie seems relatively like the 00z run. Based on the meteocentre maps, yes, it looks quite similar in fact almost identical. We'll see when the precip/vort maps update past 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 in the spirit of the FIM and all the 'special' models, the navgem almost whiffs us to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Wanted to second the point about the great LOT afd. Valuable to read even if you're not in their zone. There are good arguments either way for this trending north or south, so I really have no idea about which way it ends up going. The problem with this one for areas like mine is that the 00z Euro basically has to be 100% correct... there is no room for compromise as even a 70-80% Euro solution is not good enough. Could it be that far northwest? Maybe, but it's not necessarily a good predicament to be in. Interesting point they raised about a stronger surge from the gulf pumping the SE ridge. Still a lot to iron out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Comparing 12z UKMET at 72hr vs Euro at 84hr, the UKMET is west of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: in the spirit of the FIM and all the 'special' models, the navgem almost whiffs us to the southeast. The German model is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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