Radtechwxman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 4:44 PM, Hoosier said: Wanted to second the point about the great LOT afd. Valuable to read even if you're not in their zone. There are good arguments either way for this trending north or south, so I really have no idea about which way it ends up going. The problem with this one for areas like mine is that the 00z Euro basically has to be 100% correct... there is no room for compromise as even a 70-80% Euro solution is not good enough. Could it be that far northwest? Maybe, but it's not necessarily a good predicament to be in. Expand I feel your pain. Even if euro verifies 100% right now I still wouldn't see much. I would need an even more nw shift to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Seems like the only areas guaranteed at this point are parts of Indiana. Euro would be north and west Indiana and GFS far south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 5:11 PM, jbcmh81 said: Seems like the only areas guaranteed at this point are parts of Indiana. Euro would be north and west Indiana and GFS far south and east. Expand Yea, Indy is in a sweetspot right now. They have been in the same boat as us so I wouldn't mind seeing them score one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 5:06 PM, StormChaser4Life said: I feel your pain. Even if euro verifies 100% right now I still wouldn't see much. I would need an even more nw shift to happen Expand Whatever happens happens. Best advice is to not get too personally invested. I might start getting more invested if I were farther south though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 5:22 PM, Hoosier said: Whatever happens happens. Best advice is to not get too personally invested. I might start getting more invested if I were farther south though Expand Agree with you 100%. Before everyone here starts to get worked up about this storm - at this point it is 50/50 - still much to be known and still some guidance wanting to transfer this sucker to the east coast just to leave us with pixie dust and a broken heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 12z UK did make another nw jog, even brings the snow band up into Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Are you guys paying for the UKMET qpf maps on that new Maue site? If not, could you link me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 5:31 PM, hawkeye_wx said: 12z UK did make another nw jog, even brings the snow band up into Chicago. Expand Wow, that Ukie run would be one of the best options for a wide area of the Midwest to get a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 5:22 PM, Hoosier said: Whatever happens happens. Best advice is to not get too personally invested. I might start getting more invested if I were farther south though Expand Hoosier, I am one to normally be a downer, but seriously wouldn't write this off for you, particularly with the LE possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Hmmm, 12z Ukmet did make a pretty significant shift NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 5:31 PM, hawkeye_wx said: 12z UK did make another nw jog, even brings the snow band up into Chicago. Expand Yeah, definitely a bit north of 00z. Here was 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 5:35 PM, mimillman said: Hoosier, I am one to normally be a downer, but seriously wouldn't write this off for you, particularly with the LE possibility. Expand It's got my attention and am certainly not writing it off. I am very guarded though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 5:33 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Are you guys paying for the UKMET qpf maps on that new Maue site? If not, could you link me. Expand http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 5:39 PM, ams30721us said: Hmmm, 12z Ukmet did make a pretty significant shift NW... Expand It starts off heading N (being the most western solution of the 12z suite) then veers east. Unique run to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IlliniWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Long time lurker here. Really significant spread on the 12z runs especially if the Euro holds steady. Will be interesting to see how this one plays out. IMO if the Euro remains unchanged along with good ensemble consensus then I think we will start to see the GFS cave in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 5:42 PM, Snowstorms said: It starts off heading N (being the most western solution of the 12z suite) then veers east. Unique run to say the least. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 By hour 72 12z Euro has a low in AL. Think that's already east of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Since I was catching up on things, I am glad to see the GFS jumped left considerably. The NAM extrapolated would be even further left than that. Both are still wonky with the low tracks due to convective feedback issues, wanting to force the low with the convective blob down south. Otherwise the consensus is narrowing and this is really starting to look damn good for places like STL IND DTW YYZ with places like ORD GRR potentially in the snow game and Ohio would get crushed with ice same with far western NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 6:09 PM, snowlover2 said: By hour 72 12z Euro has a low in AL. Think that's already east of 0z. Expand It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro back on the east solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro @96 hours is east of 0z. In fact, its slightly east of the 12z GFS and 12z CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Pretty significant jump east on the Euro. Goes to show how fickle this setup is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 6:09 PM, Stebo said: Since I was catching up on things, I am glad to see the GFS jumped left considerably. The NAM extrapolated would be even further left than that. Both are still wonky with the low tracks due to convective feedback issues, wanting to force the low with the convective blob down south. Otherwise the consensus is narrowing and this is really starting to look damn good for places like STL IND DTW YYZ with places like ORD GRR potentially in the snow game and Ohio would get crushed with ice same with far western NY. Expand Would love a good ice storm here. It’s been a decade since the last good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 6:15 PM, Snowstorms said: Euro @96 hours is east of 0z. In fact, its slightly east of the 12z GFS and 12z CMC. Expand Actually almost identical to the 12z CMC, but not nearly as dismal as the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Models west of me are coming easy, models east of me coming west....not bad What it really means? Can't trust any of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Euro dug the low too far south this run compared to last run. Other than that nothing else changed. That would be the part to watch, though in my opinion I don't see this digging as far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 east has been the play for yrs. compromise the trash together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 The area between Evansville and Detroit gets hammered with more than a foot (in some cases down near central Indiana well over a foot) of snow per the 12z Euro. Not a bad run for much of Indiana and NW Ohio, but boy what a huge leap east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Pretty impressive lake effect signal for the western shore on the Euro. Would rival our total seasonal snowfall thus far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Man, Euro has 40-50MPH gusts in northern Ohio where it drops 0.75-1" of ZR. Even if you run some of that off before it accretes it'd be ugly. I'm hoping not! Actually, those temp profiles look more sleety on the Euro up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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