Calderon Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Tornado confirmed near Ardmore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The strong cell / updraft SE of Addison, AL looks like it may be on the verge of producing. Signs of a couplet forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Damage confirmed to the AL welcome center on I-65. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 And I admit I have concern for the Gadsden area later this evening as that monster cell to their nw moves se along the warm front boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The 18z NAM 3km looks ominous for E Tennessee . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Cullman cell is intense. Looks like they are getting rocked with possible 2-3" hail over downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Cell headed nearAlbertville,nice rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This is pretty stable air correct?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Cell headed towards Albertville,looks like close to sisters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Cell ENE of Arley, AL probably about to be tornado warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Ardmore cell producing again, confirmed near Huntland in Jackson County and will pass less than 5 miles north of the Hytop (HTX) radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Cell ENE of Arley, AL probably about to be tornado warned. Not sure if we are talking about the same thing, but the area near the HTX radar is now tornado warned (8 mi west of radar). Interestingly, google maps shows terrain with 800 ft vertical differences there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Chinook said: Not sure if we are talking about the same thing, but the area near the HTX radar is now tornado warned (8 mi west of radar). Interestingly, google maps shows terrain with 800 ft vertical differences there. I was referring to the cell between Cullman / Good Hope i65 and Arley, AL. Though the rotation has weakened now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 You guys should be stable enough to avoid trouble in northeast Tenn. 46 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: This is pretty stable air correct? . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 There seem to be even more tornado warnings, even into the nighttime. Here's a confirmed tornado -- ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY... At 830 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Jacksonville State University, or near Jacksonville, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 That's ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Headed towards Tallapoosa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I hate to see this cause people could be dying right now but I’ve never seen a sig like this. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 That was likely a violent long-tracker unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Cullman,Al https://www.facebook.com/billy.hulsey.7/videos/1572115492837427/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Congratulations @*Flash* with the successful intercept! Looks about like my Dixie intercept last August in the remains of Harvey (down on Alabama I-22). I gather you were on state highway 24? Is it a good highway with open views and somewhat flat? Google terrain looks OK. Except for a ridge between Hwy-24 and US-72-Alt I may get to expand what I call the chasable area. Thanks! Anyway I did not go out yesterday. My concerns were mainly timing and terrain. Figured the morning cluster out of Mississippi would be really sloppy into western Alabama; elevated trying to root usually is slop. Second cluster out of Mississippi was a little better. Reed Timmer documented a low contrast tornado out that way. Then we see Flash got Russellville! I figured it would take all day for the central Alabama airmass to recover. Then I was worried about northeast Alabama terrain. Actually it recovered well before dark, and back in reasonable terrain, per the above. Should I have chased? Probably. Target forecast was right. However the action looks similar to what I documented in August. Advantage of a desk chase, in addition to being in my cozy home, is being able to follow everything at once. At nightfall east Alabama really got going. Can't chase at night, but one can sure follow Twitter and scanner radio by Broadcastify. I'm sure other apps are available. Anyway I'm glad nobody was seriously hurt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 On 3/19/2018 at 11:15 PM, jaxjagman said: Cullman,Al https://www.facebook.com/billy.hulsey.7/videos/1572115492837427/ That's some big hail for the south https://www.weather.gov/hun/event_03192018_hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 On 3/11/2018 at 10:32 PM, jaxjagman said: Signs of a good system towards the end of March That would be some serious rain in a 48-hour period.Slow moving front with short waves riding it then a developing surface low comes up Mid Tn.Either way, there is a good chance someone in the Valley is going to see some healthy rains with flooding potential next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 The Euro and GFS are going back and forth.The Euro has been further south with the surface low and GFS North.They flip flopped today the GFS is further south and the Euro is coming trough Mid Tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Summary on the Jacksonville, AL tornado that was rated an EF3. Considering the area it passed through, it's amazing there were no deaths and greater numbers of injured.Estimated Maximum Wind: 150 mphInjuries/Fatalities: 4 InjuriesDamage Path Length: 34.29 milesMaximum Path Width: 2000 yardsApproximate Start Point/Time: 3 SSW Silver Lakes Golf Course33.8453/-85.9472 at 8:23 pm CDTApproximate End Point/Time: 4 SSE Mars Hill33.7943/-85.3665 at 9:10 pm CDThttps://www.weather.gov/bmx/event_03192018_jacksonville 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Warning system worked well from TV Mets publicizing the Convective Outlook, though the Watches, and of course good lead-time Warnings. Wish they all ended this way! Severe weather is quite possible in the South middle to late next week. However it might be south of our Region, more Deep South. We'll see how that low/wave tracks along the quasi-stationary front. Either track the wind fields are forecast to be there. One thing with confidence, as Jax mentions, flooding will be a factor. UPDATE: Going with an ECMWF/ICON compromise and throwing out the GFS rubbish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2018 Author Share Posted March 25, 2018 7 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Warning system worked well from TV Mets publicizing the Convective Outlook, though the Watches, and of course good lead-time Warnings. Wish they all ended this way! Severe weather is quite possible in the South middle to late next week. However it might be south of our Region, more Deep South. We'll see how that low/wave tracks along the quasi-stationary front. Either track the wind fields are forecast to be there. One thing with confidence, as Jax mentions, flooding will be a factor. UPDATE: Going with an ECMWF/ICON compromise and throwing out the GFS rubbish. Yeah, i agree, the GFS has no support from any model with the progression it's showing.But the Euro did shift east today.So we'll see.You'd think the models would have this figured out by now without the chaos.Either way by the Euro guidance the the heavy rains would be in the eastern valley as this afternoon's run shows,there is some KI and the showalter is not impressive ,very little instability for convective storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2018 Author Share Posted March 25, 2018 Long range the MJO is being shown by the GEFS getting into phase 7 pretty amped up almost 2 sigma,Euro, comes out into 7 less amped.Either could be right as the Euro don't like phase 6 for some reason,we talked about this is the fall thread.The MJO though after getting into the IO starts to lose it's signal so maybe likely it goes back into the COD,still aways off so some uncertainty Long range models shows a typhoon into the Pacific.Euro yesterday had a upper low into North Korea with a still strong typhoon,today it has a typhoon much weaker and the low is into China.Not sure about the long range towards the 2nd week of April 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2018 Author Share Posted March 25, 2018 Asia shows a trough going through Mongolia by day 7 on the Euro then a upper low into China,the typhoon is still being shown to die out.Either way towards the end of week one into week 2 of April we could be once again looking at a good system.The whole chorus this late winter into early spring has been suppressed systems.But still i see some good signals.On the RRWT lifted Index it's showing the lift tapping into the GOM and coming into the lower OV,with the BSR maps showing a warm front lifting northward into the lower OV with a cold front on it's heels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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