yoda Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 Mid South some of these short range models coming in might have a rough night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 The FV3 is vicious. I've noticed it likes to go supercell crazy though. HRRR and NAM have much more of a linear storm mode vs discreet cells. but man this fv3 supercell is nasty. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Moderate risk, large 15% area now also. Not good with a nocturnal event. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Pretty quiet in here, although to be fair meat of this threat looks to have shifted slightly north/west of the TN Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1982 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas...southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...southeast Indiana...and western Kentucky. Concerning...Tornado Watch 552... Valid 102245Z - 110015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 552 continues. SUMMARY...A slow increase in storm intensity/coverage is expected over the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Initial storms which developed near Little Rock have not shown much organization thus far. In addition, weak cellular convection is developing across much of the Mississippi River region. However, a strong capping inversion, sampled by the 19Z LZK RAOB is likely limiting more robust storm development thus far. As heights continue to fall this evening, expect these warmer mid-level temperatures to erode further and expect greater storm coverage and intensity. Once mature supercells can develop, all severe hazards remain possible as the environment remains favorable with 0 to 1 km shear now in excess of 35 knots per KLZK VWP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 How are you Mr.Bob,dont see you around much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST AR/SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN TN/KY AND SOUTHERN IL... AMENDED TO INCREASE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ...SUMMARY... A few strong tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail are all expected beginning this evening across Arkansas and Missouri, with the greatest tornado threat close to the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. The damaging wind and tornado threat will persist overnight while spreading eastward into the Tennessee Valley and northeastward across the Ohio Valley overnight. Northeast Texas: Isolated thunderstorms are developing a bit farther west across northeast Texas than earlier anticipated. With ample moisture/instability across this region ahead of the front will increase severe probabilities across this region. The previous forecast appears to be on track, and little change is needed at 20Z. At 19Z, a dryline was located near the I-35 corridor from north TX into OK, with gradual warming and destabilization noted eastward into AR. Upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is already in place there, with further warming along with dewpoints holding in the upper 60s F. While capping currently exists over most areas, the deepening moist boundary layer is forecast become uncapped prior to 00Z over AR, and this will support possible supercell development with tornado threat evolving east-northeastward into western KY/TN through the evening. Otherwise, expanding storm coverage is likely around 03Z along/ahead of the cold front as large scale lift increases across the MS and OH Valleys, with very strong shear favoring tornadoes, possibly strong. For more information on the AR and southeast MO area, see mesoscale discussion 1978. ..Darrow.. 12/10/2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Pretty quiet in here, although to be fair meat of this threat looks to have shifted slightly north/west of the TN Valley. HRR shows the cap breaking around 10pm here and discrete storms start to pop up shortly after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1986 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 Areas affected...portions of far northeast Arkansas into the Missouri Bootheel...far western Tennessee...extreme southwest Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 552... Valid 110022Z - 110115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 552 continues. SUMMARY...Locally higher tornado threat potentially materializing with a maturing supercell across northeast Arkansas. Potential exists for this supercell to become long-lived, with sustained/strong tornadoes possible over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...KLZK, KNQA, and MRMS mosaic radar data all depict an intense supercell in progress across the Jackson/Woodruff County AR area, where deep-layer ascent and LLJ intensity both continue to increase in magnitude. Latest LZK and NQA radar data also depicts a possible TDS, suggesting that the supercell may have already produced a tornado. The 00Z LZK sounding shows that the convective inhibition above the boundary layer has eroded, with a moist and unstable boundary layer likely advecting ahead of the ongoing storm. The 00Z sounding, along with the 2352Z NQA VWP shows a relatively long/curved hodograph with 0-1 and 0-3 km SRH at/over 300 m2/s2. Low-level shear is only expected to increase with further intensification of the LLJ over the MS river. Furthermore, several of the recent HRRR runs have also depicted a long-tracked supercell across this region. As such, this supercell may obtain a steady-state structure, with additional tornadoes (some strong) potentially accompanying this storm through early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 Getting active to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 By Weiner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 Looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 NDOT,is up to 2.5,some SERIOUS ROATION in that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 3 NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 PDS now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: 3 NOW That NROT was off the top of the chart when it went pink/white Large debris ball and CC drop out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 1 minute ago, OKTWISTER said: That NROT was off the top of the chart when it went pink/white Large debris ball and CC drop out now. No kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Pretty quite over here for an ongoing outbreak. Looks like a major tornado hit close to Monette AR and is moving into Leachville AR with a lot of debris showing up on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 Weaking now,see if recycles back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 so much for weaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 now it is weaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 South of Pleasant Plains,rotation is getting better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 Its coming back that strong cell.south of Rives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 Dont see no big towns but its recycling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Mississippi AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-Dyer TN-Lake TN- 753 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR Southern Dunklin and Pemiscot counties including Denton and Steele... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...PEMISCOT...SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN...NORTHWESTERN DYER AND SOUTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTIES... At 751 PM CST, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near Hornersville, or 7 miles north of Gosnell, moving northeast at 50 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Southern Dunklin and Pemiscot counties including Denton and Steele. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 Weakened a bit but still TOG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2021 Author Share Posted December 11, 2021 Died again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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