Tn Valley Severe Weather

[PowellVolz]

Skies are really starting to clear up in the valley. Maybe see a little action later on?


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[nrgjeff]

They write a 20% of watch issuance. So you're saying there's a chance...

My only goal is shelfie. Not much turning with height. However I like any day in Dixie with good visibility! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Todd Howell said a possible velocity couplet passed over my house. I was not impressed, the rain was pretty intense though. 

 

[nrgjeff]

It might have tried, or a bird may have farted. We actually have the instability and juuust enough wind shear. However just enough usually does not sustain anything. 

Unless it's Midnight with fog of course, haha!

[PowellVolz]

Pretty good rotation on this cell north of Knoxville




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[Knoxtron]

[PowellVolz]

Monday is starting to look like a High shear low CAPE but if ETn gets a good amount of sunshine on Monday, it might get interesting.




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[PowellVolz]

Mostly clear so far with some thin low level clouds in Knoxville. These clouds are booking it though.


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[PowellVolz]

These low top CAA showers have beautiful structures





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[PowellVolz]

Pictures from this cell




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[nrgjeff]

Nice pictures @PowellVolz from Monday. Back on Thursday I bet you were watching that cell like a hawk. Don't mess with Mom!

I remember a couple times in Kansas calling Mom when a hook was approaching her. Of course she's on it (aware not chasing) but we look out for family.

[nrgjeff]

Welp. Fall foliage goes down the shitter in the southern Apps. Hopefully the Cumberland Plateau does much better holding foliage. 

[PowellVolz]

Tornado earlier today with a TDS near Beaumont Tx




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[John1122]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Welp. Fall foliage goes down the shitter in the southern Apps. Hopefully the Cumberland Plateau does much better holding foliage. 

The rain may do a number here. Last year a rain storm around this time of the month stripped trees bare. 

[nrgjeff]

I was waiting for peak up there. Looks like I waited too long. It's peak but ruined. When did fall foliage become as frustrating as storm chasing?

Meanwhile the Gulf Coast got hammered Wednesday. Surprising contrast on not so grungy tornadoes. 

[jaxjagman]

Come on,lets do this.Don't mean it will happen this far out.Sure miss those strong autumn cold fronts

[jaxjagman]

On 11/22/2021 at 8:36 AM, jaxjagman said:

Come on,lets do this.Don't mean it will happen this far out.Sure miss those strong autumn cold fronts

That didn't work out very well,nothing severe but some heavy rains.Bought some new tires yesterday morn and was driving down Old Hickory,all the sudden several cars in front of me saw a brick mailbox explode from a car hitting it,ran over a few boulders,poor tires

[PowellVolz]

That didn't work out very well,nothing severe but some heavy rains.Bought some new tires yesterday morn and was driving down Old Hickory,all the sudden several cars in front of me saw a brick mailbox explode from a car hitting it,ran over a few boulders,poor tires

I’ve got to get tires for my Jeep. They are 35/12.50r18 and around 400$ a piece for what I run.


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[nrgjeff]

Sunday Dec. 5 does not interest me. Lets try teeing up that ECMWF on Sat. Dec. 11

Winter is stuck on a containership off the coast of Calif. - Facebook meme

[PowellVolz]

Sunday Dec. 5 does not interest me. Lets try teeing up that ECMWF on Sat. Dec. 11
Winter is stuck on a containership off the coast of Calif. - Facebook meme

Friday into Saturday is definitely worth watching


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[jaxjagman]

Some strong storms possible over night,especailly if the NAM is right.LLJ starts to kivk in 50-60kts.See what the afternoon models show us.

 

 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1016 AM CST Sun Dec 05 2021

   Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER DARK
   FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex region to the
   Mid-South and lower Ohio River Valley.

   ...Lower OH into Mid/Lower MS Valleys...
   Morning water vapor loop shows an upper trough amplifying over the
   northern Plains.  The associated surface cold front is now over
   NE/KS, and is forecast to sweep southeastward across much of the MS
   and lower OH valleys by tomorrow morning.  The result will be
   scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

   Present indications are that the capping inversion will weaken this
   evening ahead of the front, with strong southwesterly low-level
   winds transporting dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s into the
   region.  This will encourage shower and scattered thunderstorm
   development along the front after dark from southern IL into
   southern MO and northern AR.  CAM solutions suggest that initial
   robust activity will be sparse, but sufficient CAPE and shear
   through the cloud-bearing layer could pose a risk of hail in the
   strongest cores over parts of MO/AR.  Farther northeast, linear
   convective segments could result in gusty/damaging wind gusts.

   As the night progresses, coverage of deep convection along the front
   will likely increase.  It is uncertain how many organized storm
   clusters will form along the front, but 40-50 knot southwesterly
   low-level winds and considerable shear will promote a risk of bowing
   structures capable of damaging winds and/or QLCS tornadoes.  This
   threat will persist through the early morning as storms develop
   southeastward into parts of MS/TN/KY.

[nrgjeff]

Next weekend (Dec 11) went to crap in a hurry. Positively tilted and south, not ideal for severe. LOL even talking winter wx in the main thread. Can't make up this stuff!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

[jaxjagman]

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 550
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   855 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northern and central Arkansas
     Southern Missouri
     Eastern Oklahoma
     Northwest Tennessee

   * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 855 PM
     until 400 AM CST.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify along and
   ahead of a cold front tonight, with a severe storm risk expected to
   continue through much of the overnight.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
   statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest
   of Fort Smith AR to 50 miles northeast of Dyersburg TN. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

[PowellVolz]

There was a short lived TDS this morning around 6am cst NE of Nashville in Hartsville. Velocity was kinda one sided but had strong winds




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[jaxjagman]

On 12/6/2021 at 7:58 AM, PowellVolz said:

There was a short lived TDS this morning around 6am cst NE of Nashville in Hartsville. Velocity was kinda one sided but had strong winds




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https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

Your pic should be the Trousdale Co one

[PowellVolz]

 
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
 
Your pic should be the Trousdale Co one

I read about that. That stretch north of 40 has been active the last several years.


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[PowellVolz]

Not looking so severe now for the weekend. Another trough for the middle of next week though


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[nrgjeff]

I still like Friday...

for another weather disappointment. 

[yoda]

15 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

I still like Friday...

for another weather disappointment. 

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CST Thu Dec 09 2021

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of producing several tornadoes and
   scattered to numerous damaging winds appear probable from mainly
   Friday evening into Friday night across parts of the lower/mid
   Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.
   Some of these nocturnal tornadoes may be strong.

   ...Synopsis...
   A highly amplified upper trough initially over the western states
   Friday morning will advance eastward across the Plains through the
   day, eventually reaching the MS Valley by late Friday night into
   early Saturday morning. A broad area of enhanced southwesterly
   mid-level flow will be present ahead of the upper trough over much
   of the lower/mid MS Valley and OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a low
   over southeastern CO Friday morning will develop eastward across the
   southern/central Plains through the day, before turning
   northeastward while deepening across parts of the Midwest to Great
   Lakes Friday evening/night.

   Substantial low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally
   ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s, will likely already be
   established at the start of the period Friday morning across
   central/east TX into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. As both the
   large-scale upper trough and related surface low move eastward, this
   moist low-level airmass is expected to spread quickly northward in
   tandem with a warm front into parts of the mid MS Valley, OH/TN
   Valleys, and Southeast by Friday evening. A cold front attendant to
   the surface low will sweep eastward from the southern/central Plains
   to the vicinity of the TX Coast and MS River by the end of the
   period early Saturday morning.

   ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and
   Southeast...
   A low-level inversion should tend to limit robust thunderstorm
   development through much of the morning and afternoon on Friday.
   But, with continued low-level moistening and diurnal heating,
   between 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will probably develop across the
   warm sector by early Friday evening. This instability will be more
   than sufficient to support severe, surface-based thunderstorms.
   Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough will eventually erode
   the cap, and convective initiation appears increasingly likely
   around 00-03Z Friday evening. Even so, there is still some signal in
   guidance that surface-based thunderstorms may develop slightly
   earlier along a pre-frontal confluence band across the lower MS
   Valley and perhaps into the Mid-South as a subtle embedded shortwave
   trough overspreads this region through the day. Regardless of the
   timing of convective initiation, thunderstorms will increase in
   coverage and intensity by late Friday evening through early Saturday
   morning along/ahead of the cold front as strong forcing/mid-level
   height falls preceding the upper trough overspread the warm sector.

   Deep-layer shear will become quite strong by Friday evening owing to
   the broad area of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds. 50-60+ kt
   of effective bulk shear will easily support updraft organization,
   including supercells. There remains uncertainty regarding dominant
   convective mode and overall evolution Friday night. Thunderstorms
   may develop ahead of the cold front along one or more pre-frontal
   confluence bands late Friday evening. If this occurs, then a broken
   band of supercells may develop, with additional thunderstorms
   forming later along the cold front farther west. Eventually, this
   convection should congeal into broken line segments and small
   clusters ahead of the front, while a squall line develops along the
   cold front itself. The southwesterly winds around 850 mb are still
   forecast to rapidly increase to 50-60+ kt Friday night across most
   of the warm sector. Even though winds may not veer much with height
   through the boundary layer, there will be ample speed shear. Strong
   0-1-km SRH will likely support low-level rotation and the potential
   for tornadoes in any supercell than can develop, and with
   circulations embedded within the QLCS. Isolated large hail may also
   occur with any initially discrete storms. In addition, scattered to
   numerous severe/damaging winds appear likely given the strength of
   the low/mid-level flow, as it will not take much for convective
   downdrafts to bring the enhanced flow aloft to the surface.

   Confidence has increased in a more favorable corridor for organized
   severe thunderstorms Friday night into early Saturday morning from
   roughly the vicinity of the MS River in eastern AR and northern MS
   northward into parts of the lower OH Valley. Across this region, the
   best overlap of sufficient instability, strong low-level and
   deep-layer shear, and a potentially favorable supercell mode may
   overlap for several hours (generally around 03-09Z). Have therefore
   increased severe wind and tornado probabilities across this region
   and have introduced and Enhanced Risk. Various forecast soundings
   from the 00Z NAM across this region show around 1000-1500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE, and effective SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2. This suggests some
   potential for nocturnal strong tornadoes. The northern extent of the
   severe risk across the Midwest and OH Valley remains uncertain. Some
   northward expansion of severe wind and tornado probabilities was
   made across this region based on latest guidance showing upper 50s
   to low 60s surface dewpoints possibly advancing a little farther
   north. The Slight Risk was also expanded eastward and southward
   across parts of the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley to account
   for a line of convection along or ahead of the cold front likely
   continuing to pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps
   a few tornadoes through the end of the period.

   ..Gleason.. 12/09/2021