Tn Valley Severe Weather

[Chinook]

tornado debris near Memphis radar

[mob1]

The debris signature looked very significant on that storm, I wonder is some of it was radar noise due to the proximity to the radar site. If not, it make have produced a fairly substantial tornado. 

 

Edit; there's now confirmed damage coming out of that area 

[Chinook]

tornado reported about 9 miles north of KNQA Memphis radar-- looks like the rotational signature might be weakening.

[mob1]

 

[janetjanet998]

sounds like they didn't issue a warning until several minutes AFTER the TDS

 

and again using confusing wording like usual (never says CAPABLE of producing a tornado when radar indicated only)

but this time it just happened to be producing when they issued the default warning wording

     
* AT 511 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
  PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MUNFORD, OR 9 MILES NORTH OF  
  MILLINGTON, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  

 

[mob1]

1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

sounds like they didn't issue a warning until several minutes AFTER the TDS

 

and again using confusing wording like usual (never says CAPABLE of producing a tornado when radar indicated only)

but this time it just happened to be producing when they issued the default warning wording

     
* AT 511 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
  PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MUNFORD, OR 9 MILES NORTH OF  
  MILLINGTON, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  

 

Not to derail the discussion, but it's not a new issue with them. Anyways, looks like it was a brief, but intense, spin up. 

[mob1]

 

[mob1]

Embedded rotation near Abbeville, which was hit by a tornado recently 

 

Edit;  TW now. 

[PowellVolz]

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[nrgjeff]

I'm glad my radar is over in Hytop. More and more I'm convinced there's a just-right distance; and, it's not necessarily super close. Of course far gives away vital accuracy, and radar holes still need to be plugged.

Back in Wichita I would often use Vance to interrogate local storms. Wichita radar is right at the airport, which is in town; therefore, the radar beam sometimes undershoots if the storm is right in town.

Memphis radar showed rotation, but not a TVS at the time of the tornado. It was a bit loose for TVS. However the next scan showed that debris in correlation coefficient. That's a confirmed tornado good as a spotter report. Was it part of ground clutter? All I can say, it was juxtaposed with the rotation. Plus old fashioned reflectivity hook and debris ball. 

Some grace is called for with the wording. It was probably the standard warning text; and by that point, they just had to get the warning out without editing ASAP.

[PowellVolz]

I'm glad my radar is over in Hytop. More and more I'm convinced there's a just-right distance; and, it's not necessarily super close. Of course far gives away vital accuracy, and radar holes still need to be plugged.
Back in Wichita I would often use Vance to interrogate local storms. Wichita radar is right at the airport, which is in town; therefore, the radar beam sometimes undershoots if the storm is right in town.
Memphis radar showed rotation, but not a TVS at the time of the tornado. It was a bit loose for TVS. However the next scan showed that debris in correlation coefficient. That's a confirmed tornado good as a spotter report. Was it part of ground clutter? All I can say, it was juxtaposed with the rotation. Plus old fashioned reflectivity hook and debris ball. 
Some grace is called for with the wording. It was probably the standard warning text; and by that point, they just had to get the warning out without editing ASAP.

The radar was acting weird on that cell. It went from signs of a hook on base to a nice tight debris ball a scan or two later. The warning “update” like 5 minutes after the warning was issued said it was confirmed by radar and a ground spotter. I think it caught them off guard.


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[jaxjagman]

[nrgjeff]

Classic 2% Plateau things

[nrgjeff]

Slight Risk in the Mid South includes 5% tornado. MCV magic season. However I figure any tornadoes would be brief and perhaps low contrast. Leading edge of MCS.

Much of the 5% is also in moderate to high flood risk from WPC. Northern part is in just awful terrain where the Tennessee River curves north back into the state, and into tree-filled hills.

[PowellVolz]

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[nrgjeff]

Mississippi has been pummeled two days straight. Some areas have 10+ inches of rainfall and Flash Flood Emergencies posted this morning. I think MEG (Memphis NWS WFO) posted some observed rainfall charts. 

Meanwhile an MCV is in Alabama this Noon hour Thursday. Mostly cloudy ahead of it should keep things stable. Suppose I agree with SPC. General. Snooze. When's the next hurricane?

[VOLtage]

 

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for a few
   strong to damaging gusts through about 00Z, followed by an overall
   decrease in intensities. Due to the limited duration of remaining
   threat, a WW will probably not be necessary.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms continue
   developing in the pre-frontal warm sector across eastern TN where
   the atmosphere remains moderately unstable with up to 2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE. Latest VAD wind profile from Morristown shows unidirectional
   west southwest winds from 30-40 kt in the 2 - 6 km layer but with
   weak vertical shear. This environment is supportive of multicells
   capable of producing locally strong to damaging gusts. The primary
   threat should persist another couple of hours, but storms should
   begin a weakening trend after 00Z as the boundary layer stabilizes
   with loss of diurnal heating.

[jaxjagman]

Tornado Warning
ALC083-190015-
/O.NEW.KHUN.TO.W.0008.210818T2347Z-210819T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
647 PM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021

The National Weather Service in Huntsville Alabama has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Limestone County in north central Alabama...

* Until 715 PM CDT

* At 647 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Athens, moving
  east at 35 mph.

[PowellVolz]

Wondering if next week will bring in a tornado threat to the valley? I’d say the plateau and southern valley will like usually have a better opportunity


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[PowellVolz]

The way this storm is going to be running from SW to NE through middle Tennessee, I believe will put ETn in a greater threat for tornadoes. Seems like a storm tracking S to N would cause a lot of downsloping off the mountains and would limit low level flow.


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[PowellVolz]

Pretty good sig for a hurricane spun tornado just north of Mobile Ala




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[VOLtage]

Is it just me or does that look like two separate debris signatures?

 

[nrgjeff]

Starting off Fall Break with a bang! Minimal probabilities, but it's better than the summer doldrums. No special plans from Chattanooga. Who wants to take the over/under for Cullman, AL? 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0513.html expires 10pm Central October 6, Wednesday.

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

News said it was a TOG

[PowellVolz]

News said it was a TOG

Possible damage around Crossville


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[PowellVolz]

This is awesome

.

[jaxjagman]

22 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Possible damage around Crossville


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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
512 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TORNADO          4 N CROSSVILLE          36.01N  85.03W
10/06/2021                   CUMBERLAND         TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AN EF1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
            CROSSVILLE NEAR THE OBED RIVER AND MOVED NORTHWARD
            ACROSS RYE WOODY RD...LAWSON RD AND TABOR LOOP BEFORE
            LIFTING. AT LEAST SIX HOMES AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS
            WERE DAMAGED ON RYE WOODY RD AND LAWSON RD WITH THREE
            HOMES AND ANOTHER UNDER CONSTRUCTION SUFFERING
            SIGNIFICANT ROOF AND EXTERIOR DAMAGE. NUMEROUS TREES
            WERE ALSO SNAPPED AND UPROOTED IN ALL DIRECTIONS AND
            POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN. PATH LENGTH 1 MILE AND PATH
            WIDTH 50 YARDS. MAX WINDS 90 MPH.

[nrgjeff]

SPC will probably keep the 5% for West Tenn.

Boundary intersection is already set up around Dyersbug, TN. The LLJ will be a bit veered; however, should be just enough SRH right on the boundary with any right mover. Moisture will pool on the boundary. 

Terrain is great west of town, and OK east for a bit before rolling too much. Jog north into KY would be dreadful terrain. Finally south toward Jackson, TN is doable. Wish I'm there!

MD leans severe box, but it might depend on who issues and coordination with WFOs. Also might save it for a small tornado box northeast of there later.

[nrgjeff]

Latest MD mentions possible watch downstream KY/TN. Also notes 850 mb and I not 925 mb will increase in strength toward evening. SPC leaves the door open for either severe or tornado box downstream. Boundary lurks from Dyersburg toward Clarksville. Said west-east boundary should promote more SRH than the junk cold font.