PowellVolz Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 Hook is going to pass very close to me very soon. Frequent thunder. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 Had some quarter to slightly larger hail. No Tornado thankfully. The debris ball passed a but NW of me. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 Had some quarter to slightly larger hail. No Tornado thankfully. The debris ball passed a but NW of me. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 Elementary school hit in Cumberland Co. lots of damage. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 Sunbright area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 Local hail. https://streamable.com/avhs6q 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 Some lines down. A barn destroyed in the area. But so far no reports of injury. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 From 141/Royal Blue exit looking West during storm. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 Straight Creek on the Scott/Campbell border. https://streamable.com/s63jgb 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Risk was marginal, but we did have tornadoes today in a part of the state that rarely sees them. I'll be curious to see if they find anything in Campbell. Generally, as the graphic shows we are the least Tornado prone County in the whole state. The possible Tornado today was just right along the border of Campbell and Scott. The 1 confirmed Tornado in that 70 year period here also barely clipped Campbell County but on the far eastern border. I've always assumed Cross Mtn plays a big role in disrupting storms that are possibly tornadoic here since 99 percent of them seem to move SW to NE and it shoots up to nearly 4000 feet in the SW section of Campbell. The one Tornado that had hit here came from the NW to the SE on the Claiborne line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 10, 2021 Share Posted April 10, 2021 Thursday was an example of Upper Cumberland Plateau yet again. @John1122 very glad you are safe! Did you take that picture? The Great Plains feel! I was unable to get out on Thursday; but, I was wondering if that Upper Plateau effect would spin up something. I would have tried harder to get out if I knew it'd be like that. Seems the elevation improves low level inflow to storms. Plateau is up in the stronger southerly wind those days. I don't see as much of the effect on the Lower Plateau. Perhaps the Upper Plateau is more continuous. Lower Plateau is interrupted by the Sequatchie Valley. NWS has studied the Plateau and found no statistically significant anomaly. I agree overall. Action is usually south and west. However on Marginal days I feel like the Plateau over-performs. Elevation may allow an otherwise meh day to produce up there. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 10, 2021 Share Posted April 10, 2021 Thursday was an example of Upper Cumberland Plateau yet again. [mention=499]John1122[/mention] very glad you are safe! Did you take that picture? The Great Plains feel! I was unable to get out on Thursday; but, I was wondering if that Upper Plateau effect would spin up something. I would have tried harder to get out if I knew it'd be like that. Seems the elevation improves low level inflow to storms. Plateau is up in the stronger southerly wind those days. I don't see as much of the effect on the Lower Plateau. Perhaps the Upper Plateau is more continuous. Lower Plateau is interrupted by the Sequatchie Valley. NWS has studied the Plateau and found no statistically significant anomaly. I agree overall. Action is usually south and west. However on Marginal days I feel like the Plateau over-performs. Elevation may allow an otherwise meh day to produce up there.It would naturally lower LCL and CIN right?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 11, 2021 Author Share Posted April 11, 2021 On 4/8/2021 at 9:10 PM, John1122 said: Straight Creek on the Scott/Campbell border. https://streamable.com/s63jgb Did you catch that like Jeff mentioned?I saw it on my radar at a quick glance, but had to do something at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 11, 2021 Author Share Posted April 11, 2021 Looks like a potential active pattern coming up.Trough going through East Asia and a recurving phoon potentially.Should start around the 25th or 26th i believe in our parts, depending on timing and what it shows the next few days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 GFS 11-15 day does have a low-amplitude trough come through the South, which is a favored pattern in late April. Huge full-latitude troughs are always over-rated. Particularly by late April, low amplitude can be high impact. I know some members are not fond of severe wx. That far out we're just jawboning. Don't worry about it. Just something for enthusiasts to track. Also regarding Plateau LCL and CIN @PowellVolz those are right and probably as important as the low level wind speed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 Maybe we can tee up some severe late this week or the weekend (Fri-Sun Apr. 23-25) timing is way up in the air. GFS goes from not finding the system, to sending through two chunks of energy. Some debacles never change. Euro and its Parallel (new Euro on-deck soon) are consistent on severe somewhere in the South; however, tracks are all over the place. Mid South, Deep South, Gulf Coast only, poor timing for Tennessee Valley, ideal timing for Tenn. For those who get anxious, this is still just the jawboning stage. One thing about late April is the Deep South is not so sloppy. Proper timing on a weekend and I go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 18, 2021 Author Share Posted April 18, 2021 45 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Maybe we can tee up some severe late this week or the weekend (Fri-Sun Apr. 23-25) timing is way up in the air. GFS goes from not finding the system, to sending through two chunks of energy. Some debacles never change. Euro and its Parallel (new Euro on-deck soon) are consistent on severe somewhere in the South; however, tracks are all over the place. Mid South, Deep South, Gulf Coast only, poor timing for Tennessee Valley, ideal timing for Tenn. For those who get anxious, this is still just the jawboning stage. One thing about late April is the Deep South is not so sloppy. Proper timing on a weekend and I go! Not very exciting for us in the Valley indeed right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Well we may want to look at the 28th or 29th for some severe potential 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 Well we may want to look at the 28th or 29th for some severe potential Yeah this is starting to look like a real event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chip Posted April 20, 2021 Share Posted April 20, 2021 All models are showing the same type setup and timing is really on point too... Impressive this far out! I know I uploaded just two however even the GFS is showing the same idea. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 ECMWF is somewhat on board too. Possible the trough is filling and lifting north at the time, leaving only modest kinematics over the South. We will have instability, but will we have the dynamics? Naturally I wish I was in the Plains for these next 2-3 systems. Soon. Very soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted April 28, 2021 Share Posted April 28, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 29, 2021 Share Posted April 29, 2021 Good chance this is on the ground moving towards Clarksville . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 29, 2021 Author Share Posted April 29, 2021 21 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Good chance this is on the ground moving towards Clarksville . That was a confirmed EF-1,this was the 10th tornado in Tn this year,we avg around 26 per year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 29, 2021 Author Share Posted April 29, 2021 On 4/28/2021 at 2:31 PM, Windspeed said: Seems to be the whole question is going to be what kind of wind shear and how strong of an inversion will be at times.No problem with instability Monday into Tuesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 30, 2021 Share Posted April 30, 2021 That mini-sup Wednesday. Something about slight risks, with stationary fronts, in northern Middle Tenn. Fortunately this one did not get out of hand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 8, 2021 Author Share Posted May 8, 2021 Chance for some strong storms tomorrow. National Weather Service Nashville TN 325 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021 .DISCUSSION... Consensus blended model forecast used through Monday afternoon. Broke out a late afternoon zone grouping dealing with continued area of showers streaming northwest to southeast across western and southwestern portions of mid state region, This area is expected to shift southeastward as late afternoon hours progress and eventually move out of mid state region before the evening hours begin. Otherwise, not much overall change from previous forecast reasoning. The surface front that is hanging around mid state region will push northward as a warm front into Kentucky overnight. This will cause the mid state to experience much warmer and humid conditions on Sunday. From afternoon through evening hours on Sunday some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with strong to damaging winds the main concern. Best chance for strongest convection will be for locations approaching TN River Valley and southwest portions of mid state approaching TN/AL Border region. During this time period also, strong surface pressure gradient influences could cause winds to gust to 25 to 35 MPH at times. Taking a closer look, by the afternoon hours on Sunday, mid state will begin to see some surface instability (>1000 J/kg) accompanied with decent shear and rather strong lapse rates. Instability does still appear to be a limiting factor, but it does look like mid state region will experience just enough instability to support development of some strong to severe thunderstorms. As mentioned above, damaging winds will be the primary concern, but large hail, and with model sounding PWAT`S approaching at or around 1.5 inches, heavy downpours causing localized flooding, especially across locations approaching TN River Valley and southwest portions of mid state region approaching TN/AL border could occur too. Isolated tornado formation certainly can not be ruled out either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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