nrgjeff Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 Models are consolidated quite a bit today. Ensemble spread is lower. Operational models zig zag less run to run. Looks like a robust warm sector with strong wind fields. Mesoscale details still TBD. Expect a Day 4 outlook Monday morning - valid for Thursday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 3 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Models are consolidated quite a bit today. Ensemble spread is lower. Operational models zig zag less run to run. Looks like a robust warm sector with strong wind fields. Mesoscale details still TBD. Expect a Day 4 outlook Monday morning - valid for Thursday. SPC has been surprisingly bearish to this point, but if I recall correctly a few days ago the models were showing the warm sector barely making it onshore the Gulf Coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 That split jet formation is looking concerning... now how far north does the warm front get? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: Yikes! I just pulled the STP from the 06Z NAM. Double-yikes. This is at 03Z Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 If nothing else, this one does not have the upper low getting shunted east like last week, but racing off to the lakes. IMO that is a stronger signal for the possibility (not guarantee) of some of the more unstable atmo. making into east TN and plateau areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Yikes! I just pulled the STP from the 06Z NAM. Double-yikes. This is at 03Z Friday. Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 23, 2021 Author Share Posted March 23, 2021 2 hours ago, McMinnWx said: Yikes! I just pulled the STP from the 06Z NAM. Double-yikes. This is at 03Z Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 45 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Forgive my ignorance - what is this? It doesn't look good, whatever it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Wow... that ain’t pretty . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 23, 2021 Author Share Posted March 23, 2021 35 minutes ago, McMinnWx said: Forgive my ignorance - what is this? It doesn't look good, whatever it is. Just some guidance from the map i ran off of.I would not trust it this far out tho.It basically just shows where a possibility of strong tornadoes could be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 23, 2021 Author Share Posted March 23, 2021 The 6Z Euro is further west, it now tightens it up more into the MO/V,it was showing the LLJ 55-65 KTS in the Valley now it's more 60-70 kts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 The 6Z Euro is further west, it now tightens it up more into the MO/V,it was showing the LLJ 55-65 KTS in the Valley now it's more 60-70 ktsYuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 Are we having fun yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 23, 2021 Share Posted March 23, 2021 3 hours ago, Bob's Burgers said: Are we having fun yet? "WOOO-HOOOO! HEY YOU GUYS! WOOO-HOOOOO!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2021 Author Share Posted March 25, 2021 Couple days ago there was hardly any low level shear ay 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Saturday across the lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions. Other strong to severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest. Isolated damaging wind and large hail are the main threats. ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley region... Some thunderstorms will probably be ongoing early Saturday, mainly across a portion of the TN Valley. There is some uncertainty regarding how these early storms evolve, but this activity will probably shift northeast and weaken with time. Under the influence of a broad fetch of southwesterly low-level winds, richer moisture with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F will advect northward into this region contributing to moderate instability with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Other storms might develop during the evening or overnight within the warm advection regime as the low-level jet strengthens. A cold front associated with a northern stream shortwave trough will approach this region from the northwest and likely contribute to the development of additional storms overnight, likely consolidating into lines and clusters. This activity will be embedded within strong vertical wind profiles supporting the potential for a few organized structures capable of mainly isolated strong to damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Midwest region... Low-level moisture will be more limited in this region. However, cold air aloft will compensate and the atmosphere could become at least marginally unstable as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Storms may initiate along frontal zone within a strongly sheared environment supportive of a few organized storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind. ..Dial.. 03/25/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 26, 2021 Share Posted March 26, 2021 ENH risk with 10 percent TOR in W TN -- includes Memphis and is literally knocking on Nashville's door Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Saturday across the lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions. All hazards are possible including large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. Other severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest with isolated damaging wind and large hail the main threats. ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions... Early Saturday morning a warm front will likely extend across the central or northern portions of the Gulf Coast states. It is likely that elevated thunderstorms will be in progress within a broad warm advection regime north of this boundary, mainly across a portion of the TN Valley. Some of this activity could pose a risk for mainly hail before shifting northeast and weakening with time. Under the influence of a broad fetch of southwesterly low-level winds, richer moisture with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F will advect northward into this region contributing to a corridor of moderate instability with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of the warm front. Additional storms are expected develop during the evening within an evolving warm advection regime accompanying a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Strengthening vertical wind profiles associated with an approaching northern-stream upper trough will favor organized storms including supercells. Some of these storms will be rooted close enough to the surface to pose a risk for tornadoes given expected favorable low-level hodographs. Otherwise damaging wind and large hail will also be possible. A cold front accompanying the northern stream shortwave trough will approach this region from the northwest and will contribute to the development of additional storms overnight, likely consolidating into lines and clusters with the primary severe threat eventually transitioning to isolated damaging wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Just for sake of showing.... the HRRR nailed that one long track supercell that formed SW of Jackson and tracked to the SE of Nashville. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 Yes the HRRR started keying in on that at the 15Z run. Appears that a north-south line of convergence ran from Corinth, Miss into Tenn. Intersected with outflow boundary. When the HRRR at 15Z matched my conceptual model (March 27 thread) I immediately departed. Had packed car. Memphis buddies met me in Corinth. Then we gave chase. Also in the March 27 thread. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2, 2021 Author Share Posted April 2, 2021 Models are hinting at a ULL diving down towards the Valley next week.Overall the Global winds are meh.1+2 ENSO is meh as well right now.Troughs going to East Asia but not really impressive looking but still troughs. CFS has a Kelvin coming through next week,so this should be a uptick to a severe weather potential period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 Def some nice shear on satellite for the tornado warning in my neck of the woods: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 Got a time lapse of the rotation in the atmosphere: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 Fire Department reported Tornado on the ground in Scott County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 Starting to get a lot of thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VOLtage Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 Very nasty looking couplet on the Campbell county storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 1 minute ago, VOLtage said: Very nasty looking couplet on the Campbell county storm. Likely a TDS for 2 scans that came close or crossed SR 63. Luckily I remembered that place as being pretty rural, however there are definitely structures scattered about there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 Starting to get a lot of thunder here.Is that tornado close to you? Probably on the ground . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Likely a TDS for 2 scans that came close or crossed SR 63. Luckily I remembered that place as being pretty rural, however there are definitely structures scattered about there. There are some reports of damage to homes coming in from that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 Hook is going to pass very close to me very soon. Frequent thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 HRRR has been consistent on developing cells further south into the valley. Curious to see if this occurs or not and what those cells will do given the tornadic cells in North TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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