nrgjeff Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 While I can remember some New Years thunder, it's usually after Martin Luther King Day. Well, here we are! Funny we say that about both snow and thunder. Well, both require a decent system so there's the link. Monday Jan. 25 looks interesting but no concerns; also, it's still several days out. Couple things look more like spring than winter. Upper level winds are forecast WSW with the wave vs some big ol' teardrop SSW wind. Also allows a just right 700 mb temp forecast, but that's too detailed seven days out. Still the 700 mb forecast is probably why models don't break out a Gulf Coast MCS. All that's subject to change. Climo sure says so. Another reason the Deep South may have little convection is wave timing. Again seven days is too early. Of course there's two waves forecast. Early wave would have subsidence behind it. Also the LLJ could get veered off that way. All these problems sound more like early season climo. Such a LLJ from the moist sector would support heavy rain on the warm front and or in the Mid South though. Bottom line: I have little concern about severe weather next week - except heavy rain. However I'd rather talk about thunderstorms than the winter pattern right now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 APEC SHOWS A MORE +TNI but not well into early spring ,more late spring into early summer,but you can still see how volatile 1+2 can be at times. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Maybe the atmosphere will lead the SSTs which can happen. It's a package deal. I almost wrote hopefully, but maybe I should take a more neutral approach to the topic. A delayed +TNI response would not hurt my feelings. Honestly I'd rather travel to the open Plains late season. Early season Dixie is sloppy. In other news, I don't think Monday Jan. 25 will be a thing. Maybe just enjoy the warm temps in the warm sector when it's not raining. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 On 1/23/2021 at 5:53 PM, nrgjeff said: Maybe the atmosphere will lead the SSTs which can happen. It's a package deal. I almost wrote hopefully, but maybe I should take a more neutral approach to the topic. A delayed +TNI response would not hurt my feelings. Honestly I'd rather travel to the open Plains late season. Early season Dixie is sloppy. In other news, I don't think Monday Jan. 25 will be a thing. Maybe just enjoy the warm temps in the warm sector when it's not raining. system to watch should be the one around the 5th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Surely we can squeeze out a rumble or flash from this? I mean that literally. Atmosphere IMBY seems like it has been hibernating lately. I think I can, I think I can... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The warm sector had entered Middle Tennessee. January thunder is nice, especially if February snow follows it, haha. Figure they'll keep the Marginal. Instability is there, though modest. Despite some warm air in the sounding, there's SRH and low LCLs - Dixie Alley things, lol! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Upgraded to slight. After downtrending quite a bit from some ominous longer range model solutions, the mesoscale has swung the ceiling for today's threat modestly back in the other direction (rather like the accompanying Midwest/western Great Lakes winter storm). @andyhb posted a sounding elsewhere showing a significant EML on today's 12Z Shreveport sounding, the type which could move problematic should they accompany later systems that hold together better with eastward extent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Suspicious rotation near Germantown. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 Areas affected...Northern/Central Mississippi...Western/Middle Tennessee...Northwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252249Z - 260015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South into Middle TN this evening. Some risk for tornadoes may necessitate a watch in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across the central Plains this evening. The more appreciable height falls will spread across the Mid-MS into the OH Valley region. Along the southern fringe of this stronger large-scale forcing, robust convection has recently developed across portions of western TN where surface dew points have risen into the mid 60s with surface temperatures in the lower 70s. This activity should spread east-northeast along a corridor that is destabilizing just south of a well-defined warm front. Ample shear/buoyancy exist for supercells (possibly tornadic supercell ongoing over Fayette County TN) and there is increasing concern/confidence that other organized longer-lived storms may develop. Farther south along the Pacific front, showers are gradually deepening from northwest MS into northeast LA. Some lightning is noted with the stronger updrafts but activity has struggled to organize. It's not entirely clear how many organized supercells can/will develop along this zone, but shear/buoyancy do favor some tornado threat. Tornado watch may be warranted for this activity in the next couple of hours. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/25/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Tornado watch issued for parts of middle Tennessee . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 73 dBZ on that squally linear cell south of Tellico Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Didn't get a tornado but by far the best fireworks i have seen in the past couple years here.Went on my back patio to watch and a bolt hit about a quarter mile away,scared the piss out out me..lol 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Nothing remotely severe here but lots of thunder and lightning and very heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: Nothing remotely severe here but lots of thunder and lightning and very heavy rain. Yeah we got a good dose of rain also Flood Advisory Flood Advisory National Weather Service Nashville TN 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 TNC037-187-260645- /O.EXT.KOHX.FA.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-210126T0645Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Davidson TN-Williamson TN- 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 The National Weather Service in Nashville has extended the * Flood Advisory for... Southern Davidson County in middle Tennessee... Northern Williamson County in middle Tennessee... * Until 1245 AM CST. * At 1114 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Some locations that will experience flooding include... Franklin, Brentwood, La Vergne, Nolensville, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Pegram, Bellevue, Antioch, Fairview, Hermitage, Rural Hill, Berry Hill, Natchez Trace At Highway 96, Leipers Fork and Percy Priest Lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Not a single mention of the destructive, likely significant tornado in the northern suburbs of Birmingham (Fultondale/Center Point) tonight? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 4 hours ago, andyhb said: Not a single mention of the destructive, likely significant tornado in the northern suburbs of Birmingham (Fultondale/Center Point) tonight? I was beat and getting ready for bed,i seen it in east Ms earlier,should have said something like you said at that time I've always thought the TN Valley should be renamed and more parts of MS/AL/GA should be added in since no one covers that area,you'd get more posters here just as well.To be honest here,we are not even considered the TN Valley here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Wow... Jeez... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I was beat and getting ready for bed,i seen it in east Ms earlier,should have said something like you said at that time I've always thought the TN Valley should be renamed and more parts of MS/AL/GA should be added in since no one covers that area,you'd get more posters here just as well.To be honest here,we are not even considered the TN Valley hereWhere are you located,@jaxjagman ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Yeah this unfortunately has the look of at least an EF3. Definitely a sigtor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 41 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Where are you located,@jaxjagman ? Brentwood,Williamson County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 46 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Well, it was nocturnal and didn't affect our forum area, so naturally people wouldn't post about it until the morning. I always thought of northern Alabama as part of the Tennessee Valley region, is the Birmingham area too far south? As @jaxjagman pointed out, the Southeastern States forum tends to be dominated by Carolinas and perhaps Florida/coastal GA discussion. The heart of Dixie Alley seems to kind of get glossed over on this board apart from the huge events like 4/27/11. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 47 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: The only association Birmingham has with the Tennessee Valley that I can think of is it has some municipalities serviced by TVA. Birmingham/Jefferson County, AL is not in the Tennessee Valley watershed. It's close, though. Huntsville, which is just 90 miles north, is most definitely in the Tennessee Valley region. This map explains it pretty well, I think: I always found it interesting that the only portion of TN that doesn’t drain to the Mississippi River is a very small slice of southern Bradley and Southwest Polk Counties. Conasauga river watershed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I agree that maybe those areas of the Upland South should be included such as Birmingham, Atlanta. We could rename the subforum could be renamed "Tennessee Valley and Upland South". These areas are typically undeserved by the Southeastern subforum. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 hours ago, kayman said: I agree that maybe those areas of the Upland South should be included such as Birmingham, Atlanta. We could rename the subforum could be renamed "Tennessee Valley and Upland South". These areas are typically undeserved by the Southeastern subforum. Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 It seems the Southeastern Forum is dominated by perpetual winter discussions about the slightest chance of snow in the Carolinas. Perhaps the Carolinas should have their own forum. And have Eastern MS, AL, TN, GA, FL for the Southeast. Just my two cents. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 This regional forum was created to separate the NE GA and the Carolinas from the west side of the Apps as it is generally two different discussions when it comes to winter weather. There are no definitive lines for weather in Alabama/Mississippi etc for discussion in here. That discussion is welcome and was evident in the last snow that came through MS...we just happen to have more active TN Valley posters than the rest of this side of the Apps... 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 The flashes of lightning and the sounds of thunder Monday evening were particularly sweet! I feel like last thunder was early this fall, creating a longer than usual wait. Also... First thunder after the new year is always nice; but, I felt extra content this year. Almost a feeling of peace, tbh. Why those descriptions? It has been a trying ten and a half months so far with the pandemic, damaging tornadoes* and not chasing much last year. Lightning and thunder felt like a preview of a possibly (hopefully likely) more normal spring and summer. *While I'm interested in severe, high impact tornadoes are a turn-off. I'm hoping spring 2021 offers safe chase days in Dixie, and a Plains season later. For some thunder Monday brought snow Wednesday! Does that count? Anyway we are flexible on severe wx. Birmingham tornado was late and nobody was watching. By morning Twitter had it. Then TLH is Southeast. If it's not middle of the night we'll talk about North Alabama, most of Mississippi and southern Kentucky. Huntsville and Muscle Shoals, AL are definitely Tennessee Valley. We sometimes go as far west as the Delta and south as Birmingham. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Had some lighting strikes in Hardeman county tonight, decent little cell pushed through around dinner. All rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 25 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Had some lighting strikes in Hardeman county tonight, decent little cell pushed through around dinner. All rain now Heard a few rumbles here a few minutes ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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