Chinook Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 There have been about 9 recent severe wind reports with this line of storms, nearing the Mississippi River. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Looks like the real deal to me. Funny everything goes earlier than season this year. Nashville tornado along an east-west boundary in March seemed more like a May set-up. Now here we are with a quasi-derecho situation almost a month earlier than normal. I'm not saying it'll be a true derecho, but it's an MCS riding / sliding ESE on the nose of high CAPE (for early May) with moist southwest winds feeding the beast. Storms sinking south of, drifting away from, the upper-level wave may be what prevents the strongest scenario. Should be several damaging wind reports in Tenn. Hopefully nice shelfie pix are incoming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 3, 2020 Author Share Posted May 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Looks like the real deal to me. Funny everything goes earlier than season this year. Nashville tornado along an east-west boundary in March seemed more like a May set-up. Now here we are with a quasi-derecho situation almost a month earlier than normal. I'm not saying it'll be a true derecho, but it's an MCS riding / sliding ESE on the nose of high CAPE (for early May) with moist southwest winds feeding the beast. Should be several damaging wind reports in Tenn. Hopefully nice shelfie pix are incoming. Yeah its fixing to run into SBcapes around 2800 in West Tn,per mesoscale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 3, 2020 Author Share Posted May 3, 2020 Mesoscale Discussion 0519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020 Areas affected...Much of Tennessee and adjacent portions of southern Kentucky and northern Alabama Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158... Valid 032008Z - 032115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158 continues. SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of relatively brief and weak tornadoes, across Middle Tennessee, including the Greater Nashville Metropolitan area by 4-5 PM CDT. A new severe weather watch likely will be issued to the east of WW 158 shortly. DISCUSSION...Supported by inflow of moist boundary layer air with CAPE on the order of 1500+ J/kg, a relatively compact but organized and vigorous mesoscale convective system is maintaining intensity as it progresses east of the Mississippi River. Based on recent radar trends, the severe hail threat appears to have diminished, at least somewhat. However, damaging wind gusts continue to be observed, particularly to the southeast of the lower/mid tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex which may turn eastward near/along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. System motion has shown little signs of slowing, and at around 50 kts, convection appears on track to impact the Nashville metroplitan area between 4 and 5 PM CDT. Maintenance of convective intensity, and continuation of associated severe wind and potential for relatively brief, weak tornadoes, into the Cumberland Plateau remains more unclear. Based on its current motion, this possible by 7-8 PM EDT. However, drier air emanating from southeastern U.S. surface ridging may result in less unstable inflow and weakening convective trends as suggested by at least some model output, including the last few runs of the High-resolution Rapid Refresh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 3, 2020 Author Share Posted May 3, 2020 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are likely this afternoon over Kentucky and Tennessee. Other strong to severe storms are possible farther east extending from West Virginia to the Delmarva, across the northern and central High Plains, and over a small portion of west-central Texas. ...KY/TN area... Updates to this outlook include expanding the 30% wind probabilities east ahead of the ongoing MCS, and expanding the 15 and 5% farther southeast toward northern AL. While a capping inversion may limit the southern threat areas, the deep cold pool associated with this system may allow for a threat farther southeast than expected. The greatest threat will continue to be over the Enhanced Risk area, closer to the instability axis and ahead of the apex of the bow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 3, 2020 Author Share Posted May 3, 2020 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A long-lived and fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms over western Tennessee will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds along the leading edge of the storms is the primary threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Nashville TN to 30 miles south southeast of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Radar base velocity shows up to 75 knots aloft heading for Nashville 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Radar base velocity shows up to 75 knots aloft heading for NashvilleThat’s about to be a pretty big problem for the areas hit by the EF3 in March. So many tarps and weakened trees aren’t a good combination. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 3, 2020 Author Share Posted May 3, 2020 Wind gust around Ashland City should be over 80mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Max gust at BNA measured at 62kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 3, 2020 Author Share Posted May 3, 2020 Internet finally came on,lots of wind damage on Concord Rd by my house with trees down some small hail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Max gust at KMQY (Smyrna/Rutherford County) of 53kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 3, 2020 Author Share Posted May 3, 2020 113000 folks without power in Davidson Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 3, 2020 Author Share Posted May 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: NIA reported gust to 71MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 Likely tornado in progress north of Carthage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 3, 2020 Share Posted May 3, 2020 SPC's web page is breaking all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 It completely died before it made it to my place in Morgan County; I didn't even see a drop of rain. Some nice wind gusts as what was left came through, but that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Was fairly localized in the Middle TN area; I am in Sumner county, northeast of Nashville near White House and while it did storm, we got lots of rain and wind maybe 30 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Brutal 14 hours ago, jaxjagman said: 113000 folks without power in Davidson Co Mutual aid restoration crews have been so busy this year. We still have work going on in the EF-3 damage area of Chattanooga, basically rebuilding from scratch. However most everyone else was restored within 10 days after Easter. I'm still amazed at how quickly they rebuilt the main lines. Why can't road construction be that fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Brutal Mutual aid restoration crews have been so busy this year. We still have work going on in the EF-3 damage area of Chattanooga, basically rebuilding from scratch. However most everyone else was restored within 10 days after Easter. I'm still amazed at how quickly they rebuilt the main lines. Why can't road construction be that fast?Hazardous pay gets it done, fast. Seriously. People can tolerate the inconveniences of road construction. They cannot/will not tolerate life without electricity. Those folks that rebuild those lines are incredibly focused both mentally and physically. And they get paid for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 4, 2020 Author Share Posted May 4, 2020 Using my Verizon2Go,our Comcast went out and still is out since my last post.Lots of trees down and power outage,luckily we still have power but internet is extremely slow and hard to use This was a crazy vid tho during the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 4, 2020 Share Posted May 4, 2020 Old Hickory is itching for some action. Cooking boundary in May often produces. However the LLJ is DOA east of I-65. It's weak west of there. Probably would just maintain any MCS with straight line winds up to I-65. It's really not strong enough for tornadoes; but, you never know around a boundary in May. Pulse type thunderstorms are progged over here near KCHA. We've got zero LLJ out the window or on the models. These Cu are just sitting like in the middle of summer, no movement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 5, 2020 Author Share Posted May 5, 2020 Starting to see a few wind damage reports URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 935 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 TNZ005>008-023>028-057-059-050500- /O.NEW.KOHX.HW.W.0001.200505T0235Z-200505T0500Z/ Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Houston-Humphreys-Dickson- Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Hickman-Williamson- Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield, Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Centerville, Franklin, and Brentwood 935 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT... * WHAT...Wind gusts up to 60 mph * WHERE...Portions of Middle Tennessee. * WHEN...Until midnight CDT tonight. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 Nashville escaped the storms, but now a wake low event is raking the metro. 2020 has is out for Davidson County apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 5, 2020 Author Share Posted May 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, Calderon said: Nashville escaped the storms, but now a wake low event is raking the metro. 2020 has is out for Davidson County apparently. No doubt about Nashville.Last i heard they still have thousands without power plus some won't have it back for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: No doubt about Nashville.Last i heard they still have thousands without power plus some won't have it back for a week This wake low pushed it from roughly 80k back to over 100k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted May 5, 2020 Author Share Posted May 5, 2020 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 The feel to the air has really changed in Knoxville the last hour or so. I’m assuming the WF has gone through. The wind has picked up and it has that feel to it. Temps are low to mid 70’s and DP’s are mid/upper 60’s. Sun isn’t out but it is juicy out here. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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