Blue Ridge Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Breezing through the 12z runs, some of the short-range/hi-res models look pretty interesting across the Appalachian Highlands. I'll leave the analysis to the experts, but the supercell composite and STP in particular caught my eye. Seems like most/all are in agreement on a somewhat potent squall line racing through tomorrow evening; whether discreet cells can form ahead of the line is another story. Eagerly awaiting the 1730 SPC Day 2 update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts are expected across much of the eastern U.S. Thursday -- particularly from areas along and east of the central and southern Appalachians to the mid Atlantic and Carolinas coastal areas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough crossing the central U.S. at the start of the period will evolve into a deepening closed low with time, as the system shifts quickly east-northeastward across the Midwest, and then into the Northeast overnight. As this occurs, the broader trough surrounding the low will gradually take on a more neutral to slightly negative tilt, through the end of the period. As this occurs, a cold front -- initially trailing from a low near the KY vicinity southward across Alabama to near the mouth of the Mississippi River -- will advance steadily eastward during the day. The front should cross the Appalachian crest by afternoon, as the parent low rapidly deepens and eventually occludes over the Lower Great Lakes area, reaching the Atlantic coast after midnight. This front will focus a band of showers and thunderstorms -- and attendant risk for severe weather primarily along and east of the mountains. ...Portions of the PA/NY vicinity southward/southwestward to the southern Appalachians... A zone of showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid Ohio Valley/Mid South region south-southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico, in the vicinity of an advancing surface cold front. A secondary area of showers -- perhaps with some embedded lightning -- will be shifting quickly northeastward across the Carolinas/Virginia vicinity. Only minimal severe risk -- mainly in the form of gusty winds or a brief tornado -- is apparent at this time within either of these areas of convection through the first several hours of the period. With time, the advance of the cold front across the southern, and then the central, Appalachians during the afternoon in conjunction with the strengthening upper system will result in gradual organization of a band of frontal convection. Very strong flow aloft will aid in the convective organization, with upscale evolution toward a semi-continuous band of storms expected. By late afternoon/early evening, storms will likely have become fairly well-organized, crossing south-central and southeastern PA, MD, VA, and the Carolinas along with attendant risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. Low-level wind profiles will become supportive of supercells during the afternoon across the pre-frontal warm sector. While suggestive of some tornado potential, pre-frontal warm-sector storms are largely not anticipated. Still, a few mainly QLCS-type tornadoes will be possible, given the overall dynamic/kinematic set-up -- particularly from late afternoon through mid evening. As storms near the coast overnight, gradual weakening of the convection -- and associated diminishing of the severe risk -- is expected, though limited wind risk will likely extend to near the mid Atlantic/Carolina coasts overnight. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 5% - Marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 SPC expanded the ENH risk southwestward across the far, far northeastern tip of Johnson County. Upper East TN is in 5% TOR. Any severe weather today will be a matter of threading the needle. MRX sees the LLJ ramping up as a primary catalyst, assuming downsloping does its job and warms the area ahead of the area of showers to the west. The best chance appears to be after this current lobe of moderate rain moves out and the dry area currently north and east of Chattanooga envelops the area. This may allow for warming and an increase in instability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 2019 is going to continue doing 2019 things, so it stands to reason this winds up a nothingburger. That said, it's fun to track what may well be the last severe threat of the year for the fer east valley. Some clearing is now visible on GOES East; meanwhile, winds have really cranked up at TYS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Knox County in east Tennessee... Anderson County in east Tennessee... Southeastern Campbell County in east Tennessee... Union County in east Tennessee... * Until 1145 AM EDT. * At 1057 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Clinton, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 New warning for Knoxville: The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Knox County in east Tennessee... Northwestern Jefferson County in east Tennessee... Southwestern Grainger County in east Tennessee... * Until noon EDT. * At 1124 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Knoxville, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Several reports thus far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Eastern Claiborne County in east Tennessee... Northwestern Hancock County in east Tennessee... Lee County in southwestern Virginia... West central Scott County in southwestern Virginia... * Until 1230 PM EDT. * At 1150 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Tazewell, or 13 miles southeast of Middlesboro, moving northeast at 65 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Jonesville around 1220 PM EDT. Pennington Gap around 1225 PM EDT. The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Eastern Claiborne County in east Tennessee... Northwestern Hancock County in east Tennessee... Lee County in southwestern Virginia... West central Scott County in southwestern Virginia... * Until 1230 PM EDT. * At 1150 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Tazewell, or 13 miles southeast of Middlesboro, moving northeast at 65 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Jonesville around 1220 PM EDT. Pennington Gap around 1225 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Oh lovely. Anything really happening up that way? How much wind is really mixing down? Appreciate ground reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 We have some posters in that area...hopefully they will post a report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 The Claiborne Progress reported that they received a report of a tornado on the ground in Tazewell, but it may have been a prank, because apparently the report says the touchdown was on the football field at a local middle school. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Tornado Watch #685 is now in effect for Carter, Johnson, Sullivan, Unicoi, and Washington counties in TN as well as all of Southwest VA excluding Lee Co. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 48 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Claiborne Progress reported that they received a report of a tornado on the ground in Tazewell, but it may have been a prank, because apparently the report says the touchdown was on the football field at a local middle school. LOL. That is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Oh lovely. Anything really happening up that way? How much wind is really mixing down? Appreciate ground reports. Knoxville got hit pretty good. We had 16 major roads closed because of down trees and power lines. 10 schools still without power. 40k without power at one time. Took this pic close to my house on Broadway, this is the same tree. . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 I was just a couple of miles north of that scene and I’d say the winds were 45ish mph but just west of that area of N Knoxville, velocity was interesting . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted November 1, 2019 Share Posted November 1, 2019 The Claiborne Progress reported that they received a report of a tornado on the ground in Tazewell, but it may have been a prank, because apparently the report says the touchdown was on the football field at a local middle school. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 Have to see further model runs but right now CIPS and the Euro would suggest some strong storms into the warm sector in the long range towards the end of next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will be possible over a portion of the lower to middle Mississippi Valley region Tuesday. ...Lower to middle Mississippi Valley region... A strong shortwave trough now approaching the Great Basin will emerge over the central and southern Plains early Tuesday. A mid-upper jet within base of this feature will strengthen to 120 kt as the shortwave trough ejects negatively tilted through the middle MS Valley region. Lee cyclone initially over the southern High Plains will deepen within exit region of the upper jet as it develops northeast through the middle MS Valley by Tuesday evening. Trailing cold front will advance east and southeast through the central and southern Plains and MS Valley. By the end of the period the front should extend from a surface low over upper Great lakes southwest through LA and the TX coastal area. The boundary layer over the northwestern Gulf is in the process of modifying with latest observations showing dewpoints already in the upper 60s F. Positive theta-e advection promoted by southerly low-level winds will persist through Tuesday contributing to surface dewpoints near 70 F as far north as southern AR with upper 50s F into central MO. Widespread clouds should limit diabatic heating in warm sector, but MLCAPE should approach 1000 J/kg over the lower MS Valley. Farther north from eastern KS into MO the development of steeper lapse rates with colder air aloft (-14 to -16 C at 500 mb) will contribute to marginal MLCAPE with 500-800 J/kg possible within a more shallow convective layer. Two primary zones of surface based thunderstorm development are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, including along the warm conveyor belt from northern LA into AR, western MS and TN, and farther north within zone of stronger pre-frontal forcing ahead of the cold front from eastern KS into MO and western IL. Broken bands of storms including potential for a few supercells and bowing segments will be possible in both of these regimes where vertical shear profiles will be more than adequate for organized structures with sizeable 0-1 km hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear. Primary limiting factor for higher severe probabilities is the expected marginal thermodynamic environment. Nevertheless, at least isolated damaging wind and a couple tornadoes will be possible with the stronger storms. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 Very cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Saturday has more instability than Tuesday night's debacle. However Saturday low level winds look a bit veered. Probably be more interesting Friday in the Plains. At any rate Saturday would require some sort of meso-scale boundary set-up if those 850/925 winds don't back a bit on the models. I'm not counting on that. Good thing we have plenty of football, basketball and other sports this long weekend. Happy Thanksgiving! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 On 10/21/2019 at 5:31 PM, AMZ8990 said: Interesting morning in west TN today. Had multiple severe cells come thru, lots of rain and wind. Apparently Memphis had a tornado touch down around the cottonwood apartment complex area. HRRR don't look half bad for your area later this afternoon into the early evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 6 hours ago, jaxjagman said: HRRR don't look half bad for your area later this afternoon into the early evening Had some serious thunder and some lighting come thru. Thought it was a tornado coming cause it was so loud, haven’t had that happen to me before. Outside of that nothing to out of the ordinary happened. Definitely some power in a few if those cells though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 11, 2019 Author Share Posted December 11, 2019 See what happens Monday,probably a better chance into Ms right now where better instability should be. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active upper pattern will continue from the weekend into next week with several systems expected to rotate through the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday. Thunderstorms are anticipated across FL (and perhaps eastern NC) as a the cold front associated with this shortwave moves through. Instability will be limited but vertical shear will be strong and a few stronger storms are possible. Another strong shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great Basin/northern Rockies through the central/southern Plains and mid MS Valley into the OH Valley D5/Sunday through D7/Tuesday. Some timing and strength differences exist within the guidance but the overall pattern has shown reasonably good run-to-run and model-to-model consistency. Period between this shortwave and the one before it is enough for decent moisture from the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. As a result, a moderately moist and unstable air mass is forecast to be place ahead of this maturing system. Given the active pattern, a bit more consistency is needed within the guidance to have enough confidence to delineate any threat areas. However, if current trends continue, probabilities will likely be needed in a succeeding outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Always fun to saber rattle severe in December, a holiday tradition for me, though I enjoyed the snow yesterday. Moisture looks a little JIT and the wave has a slight positive tilt on the ECMWF. I can see why SPC waits. However the upper level wind fields are robust. Currently no VBV issues and 500 mb is nearly straight west. Things like this can work out in December when it's more about dynamics than thermodynamics. We'll see... If Monday does not work out there's always Christmas severe saber rattling. Big warm-up is forecast that holiday week before a front. Little more of a West trough is forecast for a few days before advancing into the Plains and Mid South. Funny a few days ago one GFS run had snow for Christmas. Anything is possible 2 weeks out! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin into the southern/central Plains on D4/Sunday, continuing through the mid MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Guidance differs on the location of the surface low associated with this shortwave trough, with current forecasts of its position at 12Z D5/Monday ranging from the KS/OK/MO border intersection to central TX. Even with these differences, consensus is good for a moist and moderately unstable environment from the Lower MS Valley through the TN Valley on D5/Monday ahead of the approaching shortwave. Strong vertical shear will extend across this region, supporting long hodographs and supercell wind profiles. Consequently, there is a threat for severe thunderstorms D5/Monday afternoon and evening from the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley as the shortwave trough and associated cold front move through. Forecast confidence is high enough to introduce severe probabilities. Refinements to this area are likely in subsequent forecast as mesoscale details become more apparent. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along the front as it continues eastward through the remainder of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Tuesday. However, favorable low-level moisture and instability will become increasingly displaced south of the better large-scale forcing for ascent, suggesting a more limited severe risk. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected across the CONUS on D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday - Lower MS and TN Valley Vicinity... A positively tilted shortwave mid/upper trough will eject from the Plains northeastward through the Ohio Valley on Monday, bringing a band of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across much of the south-central and Midwestern states. At the surface, low pressure over Arkansas will track northeast along the Ohio River toward western PA by Tuesday morning. Strong south/southwesterly low-level flow will bring Gulf moisture north and east across much of the southern U.S., with 60s dewpoints reaching as far north northern AL and perhaps middle TN. Forecast soundings indicate shear supportive of rotating updrafts and supercell structures. However, deep-layer flow will mostly parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front, likely leading to messy storm mode. Nevertheless, MUCAPE of around 500-1500 J/kg is expected across the warm sector and a southwesterly low level jet greater than 40 kt is forecast by most guidance. This should be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered severe cells and line segments capable of damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and possibly hail (where cells can remain discrete). Some uncertainty in north and east extent of the severe threat remains, and some changes are likely in coming outlook updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 SPC still has Monday highlighted. Lots of kinematics including close to the surface, so a little straight line wind would not surprise me. However now the 850 mb level is veered off and precip may be sloppy. 925 mb is trying not to veer off and surface to just aloft is south. Still I think given the frontal orientation along the upper winds, it's a mess. Models continue to trend more positive tilt on the trough. At one point a few days ago it was almost neutral, but that's long gone. Can't imagine anything more than 15% even on game day. Not all D4-8 go big. This one was just evident on the synoptic scale, but slight all the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 14, 2019 Author Share Posted December 14, 2019 TNI broke the record again in Sept for most -ve,this makes two consecutive months which it has done this,August and Sept. 1981 -1.350 -1.094 -0.835 -0.558 -0.496 -0.464 -0.533 -0.605 -0.708 -0.617 -0.621 -0.708 1982 -1.067 -1.466 -1.922 -2.359 -2.364 -1.924 -1.418 -0.811 0.196 0.981 1.440 1.683 1983 1.822 1.991 2.282 2.929 3.734 4.227 4.143 3.867 3.183 2.462 1.814 1.411 1984 1.080 0.907 0.603 0.369 0.148 -0.183 -0.516 -0.536 -0.277 0.186 0.207 0.255 1985 0.366 0.147 -0.506 -0.572 -0.762 -1.244 -1.452 -1.337 -1.499 -1.379 -0.950 -0.623 1986 -0.564 -0.458 -0.515 -0.968 -1.395 -1.529 -1.727 -1.860 -1.769 -1.689 -1.616 -1.322 1987 -0.980 -0.584 -0.221 -0.192 -0.289 -0.497 -0.835 -1.008 -1.191 -1.283 -1.465 -1.566 1988 -1.718 -1.557 -1.350 -1.229 -1.016 -0.911 -0.771 -0.447 0.274 0.875 1.614 2.362 1989 2.629 2.577 2.039 1.436 0.658 0.103 -0.400 -0.420 -0.404 -0.559 -0.839 -1.019 1990 -1.314 -1.647 -1.634 -1.573 -1.714 -1.810 -1.880 -2.165 -2.399 -2.380 -2.437 -2.357 1991 -2.109 -2.090 -2.002 -1.793 -1.766 -1.843 -1.672 -1.706 -1.655 -1.657 -1.664 -1.625 1992 -1.363 -0.945 -0.480 -0.278 -0.363 -0.564 -0.992 -1.276 -1.317 -1.219 -1.146 -0.878 1993 -0.819 -0.668 -0.417 -0.267 -0.481 -0.629 -0.854 -1.028 -1.186 -1.170 -1.162 -1.005 1994 -1.203 -1.399 -1.611 -1.847 -2.339 -2.750 -2.800 -2.609 -2.500 -2.194 -1.657 -1.493 1995 -1.726 -1.911 -2.190 -2.296 -2.263 -2.004 -1.533 -1.006 -0.569 -0.342 -0.188 -0.028 1996 0.036 -0.373 -0.600 -0.911 -1.525 -1.984 -2.020 -1.961 -1.890 -1.730 -1.662 -1.505 1997 -1.345 -1.149 -0.538 0.297 1.055 1.783 2.510 2.833 2.944 3.090 3.037 2.858 1998 2.716 2.870 3.045 2.983 3.164 3.210 2.762 2.450 2.368 2.262 2.225 2.475 1999 2.451 2.095 1.700 1.138 0.449 -0.101 -0.311 -0.369 -0.200 0.152 0.477 1.065 2000 1.452 1.827 1.857 1.494 0.783 0.170 -0.465 -0.707 -0.798 -0.377 -0.097 0.362 2001 0.785 1.250 0.853 0.239 -0.568 -1.504 -2.452 -2.846 -2.858 -2.637 -2.674 -2.370 2002 -1.780 -1.343 -1.287 -1.326 -1.663 -2.335 -2.871 -3.001 -2.878 -2.546 -2.413 -2.311 2003 -2.523 -2.644 -2.910 -2.995 -3.040 -2.895 -2.723 -2.412 -2.082 -1.738 -1.596 -1.522 2004 -1.600 -1.571 -1.913 -2.272 -2.637 -2.999 -3.376 -3.253 -2.993 -2.731 -2.505 -2.393 2005 -2.598 -2.605 -2.408 -2.383 -2.284 -1.897 -1.885 -2.124 -1.999 -1.668 -1.264 -0.475 2006 0.151 0.067 -0.099 -0.601 -1.170 -1.501 -1.289 -1.087 -0.991 -1.131 -1.184 -1.204 2007 -1.594 -1.834 -2.022 -2.341 -2.655 -2.697 -2.565 -2.305 -1.865 -1.291 -0.302 0.850 2008 1.836 2.404 2.671 2.493 2.015 1.613 1.429 1.173 0.955 0.839 0.787 0.779 2009 0.793 0.753 0.514 0.107 -0.284 -0.476 -0.848 -1.309 -1.687 -2.025 -2.418 -2.571 2010 -2.649 -2.398 -2.127 -1.750 -1.548 -0.957 -0.564 -0.218 0.113 0.681 1.167 1.530 2011 1.523 1.577 1.546 1.271 0.844 0.675 0.387 0.168 -0.029 0.070 0.363 0.844 2012 1.082 1.479 1.613 1.596 1.191 0.601 -0.046 -0.718 -1.412 -1.740 -1.626 -1.515 2013 -1.149 -0.999 -1.167 -1.528 -1.929 -2.379 -2.398 -2.185 -1.936 -1.583 -1.043 -1.077 2014 -1.358 -1.503 -1.408 -1.483 -1.122 -0.636 -0.406 -0.499 -0.813 -1.238 -1.715 -2.117 2015 -2.476 -2.435 -1.984 -1.434 -0.702 -0.198 0.100 0.112 -0.139 -0.404 -0.676 -1.188 2016 -1.630 -1.802 -1.946 -1.978 -1.763 -1.441 -0.968 -0.508 -0.101 0.324 0.690 1.097 2017 1.447 1.465 1.268 0.592 -0.267 -1.150 -1.575 -1.925 -1.847 -1.735 -1.548 -1.264 2018 -1.134 -1.260 -1.320 -1.650 -1.978 -2.118 -2.089 -2.159 -1.979 -1.890 -1.734 -1.700 2019 -1.725 -1.774 -1.892 -2.226 -2.535 -2.750 -3.045 -3.344 -3.286 -99.990 -99.990 -99.990 -99.99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 15, 2019 Author Share Posted December 15, 2019 On 12/13/2019 at 10:15 AM, nrgjeff said: SPC still has Monday highlighted. Lots of kinematics including close to the surface, so a little straight line wind would not surprise me. However now the 850 mb level is veered off and precip may be sloppy. 925 mb is trying not to veer off and surface to just aloft is south. Still I think given the frontal orientation along the upper winds, it's a mess. Models continue to trend more positive tilt on the trough. At one point a few days ago it was almost neutral, but that's long gone. Can't imagine anything more than 15% even on game day. Not all D4-8 go big. This one was just evident on the synoptic scale, but slight all the way. I give credit to the Euro,it did rather well with this even in the long range,It just missed the timing in the short range with the LP passing through Mid Tn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 On 12/13/2019 at 11:15 AM, nrgjeff said: SPC still has Monday highlighted. Lots of kinematics including close to the surface, so a little straight line wind would not surprise me. However now the 850 mb level is veered off and precip may be sloppy. 925 mb is trying not to veer off and surface to just aloft is south. Still I think given the frontal orientation along the upper winds, it's a mess. Models continue to trend more positive tilt on the trough. At one point a few days ago it was almost neutral, but that's long gone. Can't imagine anything more than 15% even on game day. Not all D4-8 go big. This one was just evident on the synoptic scale, but slight all the way. 17 hours ago, jaxjagman said: I give credit to the Euro,it did rather well with this even in the long range,It just missed the timing in the short range with the LP passing through Mid Tn Just south of you guys... MOD risk issued with the 1630 OTLK for LA into MS and SLGT reaching towards Nashville and S TN 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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