jaxjagman Posted July 15, 2019 Author Share Posted July 15, 2019 7 hours ago, AMZ8990 said: @jaxjagman- you expecting any severe cells from tropical storm Barry over the next few day? I havent had much time to keep track.I've been at Penn St since Thursday,my son did a gymnastics camp and we toured the campus had dinner with the coaches etc.,etc.I just got back to Maryville a few minutes ago.Best winds right now looks in the western Valley tho,where the marginal risk is showing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted July 15, 2019 Share Posted July 15, 2019 12 hours ago, jaxjagman said: I havent had much time to keep track.I've been at Penn St since Thursday,my son did a gymnastics camp and we toured the campus had dinner with the coaches etc.,etc.I just got back to Maryville a few minutes ago.Best winds right now looks in the western Valley tho,where the marginal risk is showing Penn state- that’s awesome man. I hope it went well for you guys!! Thanks for the update on the severe side of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/14/2019 at 8:28 PM, jaxjagman said: I havent had much time to keep track.I've been at Penn St since Thursday,my son did a gymnastics camp and we toured the campus had dinner with the coaches etc.,etc.I just got back to Maryville a few minutes ago.Best winds right now looks in the western Valley tho,where the marginal risk is showing I have a confirmed tornado on the ground 20 miles from my house right now. I’m under a tornado Warning until 1:30. I’ll keep you guys updated 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 22, 2019 Author Share Posted July 22, 2019 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States into southern New England, as well as the Tennessee Valley, this afternoon to early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England... Additional amplification of the large-scale trough over the eastern CONUS will contribute to a slight cooling of mid-level temperatures and strengthening southwesterly winds aloft coincident with a slow-southeastward-moving front across the central Appalachians toward parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. The coverage of yesterday's storms across most of this region has impacted thermodynamic profiles, with surface temperatures/dewpoints running at least several degrees lower than this time (late morning/midday) yesterday. As noted in the prior Outlook discussion, 12Z soundings from Sterling, Wallops, Upton, Pittsburgh, and Wilmington OH all sampled mean mixing ratios about 2-3 g/kg lower compared to 12Z yesterday and have weaker mid-level lapse rates. That said, moisture will steadily recover and ample insolation is noted at midday across the Mid-Atlantic in the lee of the Appalachians, with MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg possible (highest near the coast). As compared to yesterday, somewhat stronger wind profiles between 2-6km AGL will also be a factor for individual storm longevity/organized storms. Multicells will be common and the possibility exists for a few transient supercells from far southern New York/northern New Jersey into southern New England. Damaging winds will be the most common risk through the afternoon into early evening. ...Mid-South and Tennessee Valley... A moist air mass (70-75F surface dewpoints) remains ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. As morning cloud cover thins, increasing cumuliform/thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon, particularly downstream of a pair of residual MCVs. Wet microbursts yielding localized wind damage will be the main risk. While weak vertical shear will tend to limit overall organization and risk magnitude, a somewhat more focused/organized severe risk may exist this afternoon into early evening across western/middle Tennessee and nearby southern Kentucky and perhaps northern portions of Mississippi/Alabama. Enhanced winds are noted with the MCV near the Mississippi River, with 30-40 kt west-southwesterly winds between 4-6 km in recent (16Z) Paducah, KY WFO-88D VWP data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 Then SPC drops that 'watch not expected' mesoscale discussion. Went about like tropical depression 3. Monday was kind of a choke day on those two fronts, pun intended at the mid-latitudes. However post-frontal paradise, mild temps and low humidity. will verify nicely! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 13, 2019 Author Share Posted August 13, 2019 Lost Power for a few minutes but lost Comcast so have no TV or internet.By far the best storms of the year today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Noticed some big cells in Middle Valley areas. Heavy rain here right now but just a rumble or two of thunder every 4 or 5 minutes so far. Looks like Nashville is getting some flooding too. Looks like cells in Eastern Arkansas might reach West Tennessee. At least the heat may break there. The H.I in Memphis is 111 and 112 in Jackson with an 80 degree dp. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 Chattanooga hit 100 degrees (dews 72+) before the thunderstorms Tuesday. Normally dews dip into the 60s at 100 deg, but not this time. Glad that's over. Saw Nashville storm anvils but those cells did not make it into Chatty. Lightning and thunder started slowly since it was new development for Chatty. By evening the light and thunder show improved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 26, 2019 Author Share Posted August 26, 2019 This is really cool,had to post 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 Be nice to watch and hear some good t-storms Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive pattern at mid/upper levels is forecast through the extended forecast period. An upper trough/low should move quickly eastward across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Thursday. A cold front is also expected to shift quickly eastward parts of these regions. Minimal instability is currently shown by medium-range guidance ahead of the front, owing mainly to poor low and mid-level lapse rates. Therefore, severe potential Thursday afternoon ahead of the front appears low. Another upper trough should amplify and shift eastward across the western CONUS and into the Plains from Day 4/Thursday into Day 5/Friday. There is still variability with the amplitude of this feature by Day 5/Friday, which impacts the degree of low-level mass response and moisture return across the Plains. Some severe risk may ultimately develop Friday evening/night across part of the central Plains, but this threat may remain rather isolated. There is currently too much uncertainty regarding instability and the evolution of the upper trough to include any probabilities for organized severe thunderstorms. Differences regarding the evolution of the upper trough across the Plains and eastern CONUS become much more pronounced from Day 6/Saturday onward. Still, depending on low-level moisture return, there may be isolated severe potential across parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast next weekend into early next week ahead of a cold front. However, overall predictability remains far too low to include any areas at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 30, 2019 Share Posted September 30, 2019 ECMWF is saber rattling Dixie Alley 2nd run in a row. GFS is less interested. SPC seems to be leaning Euro. It's way out of climo. Dixie does not have the October rebound like the Plains. I'd like to see this for a few more days. Also the Euro mysteriously has the LLJ totally AWOL. Odd. At any rate it's something more interesting to watch than the SER. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 1, 2019 Author Share Posted October 1, 2019 Seems like the GFS and Euro met somewhat halfway last night,weak and weaker instability.Nothing much to see right now.Good news i reckon seems like over an inch of rain,least right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 Yeah we won't see anything in Dixie. Another win for climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 1, 2019 Share Posted October 1, 2019 4 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Yeah we won't see anything in Dixie. Another win for climo. ....but the current heat ridge gets the W!!! LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 looks more wind by the outflows,either way,HRRR is not doing very well,we are fixing to get some good rains soon into the Mid Valley Tornado Warning TNC023-039-071-077-109-070445- /O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0033.191007T0400Z-191007T0445Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Memphis TN 1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2019 The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Henderson County in western Tennessee... Northeastern McNairy County in western Tennessee... Northern Hardin County in western Tennessee... East central Chester County in western Tennessee... Southern Decatur County in western Tennessee... * Until 1145 PM CDT. * At 1100 PM CDT, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm producing a tornado was located near Jacks Creek, or 10 miles southeast of Henderson, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Adamsville, Decaturville, Sardis, Jacks Creek, Morris Chapel, Montgomery, Scotts Hill, Saltillo, Milledgeville, Enville, Right, Haney, Hinkle, Roby, Pleasant Grove, Cabo, Red Walnut, Thurman, Lick Skillet and Sibley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 12, 2019 Author Share Posted October 12, 2019 Hagibis is crushing Japan,some amazing pics being posted on twitter https://twitter.com/search?q=japan&src=typd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 16, 2019 Author Share Posted October 16, 2019 Subtle changes each run by the Euro.OZ run Euro wants to develop a potent shortwave into the lower MS/Valley which comes through west of Nashville OZ Tuesday. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Day 4/Saturday: A weak upper shortwave trough over eastern portions of the Plains on Saturday will quickly lift northeast. At the surface, a weak cold front will sweep across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes while stalling over the southern Plains. Meanwhile, guidance varies on the intensity of a tropical disturbance as it tracks near the northern Gulf coast/southeastern U.S. on Saturday. Reference the Tropical Weather Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center for more details on this system. How this low evolves could influence severe potential across parts of the northern and eastern Gulf coast states into GA/SC on Saturday, though severe potential appears low at this time. Days 5-7/Sunday-Tuesday: Severe potential is expected to increase on Sunday as a more intense shortwave trough ejects eastward from the Rockies into the Plains on Monday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will develop from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest as the trough deepens over the Plains. The ECMWF and GFS are in better agreement over the position of an intensifying surface low compared to yesterday, with the low tracking across SD through the afternoon before lifting northeast into MN overnight. A trailing cold front will push eastward across the Plains, with some timing differences among various guidance. Despite this, models are fairly consistent in moist return flow bringing 60s surface dewpoints northward to at least the Ozark Plateau eastward toward the Mid-South. At least a narrow corridor of severe potential is expected ahead of the cold front where a favorable combination of instability, steepening midlevel lapse rates, strong shear and upper forcing for ascent will align. Over the past few days, this corridor has been most consistently indicated by medium-range guidance across parts of north TX, eastern OK into adjacent parts of KS/MO/AR. Confidence has increased sufficiently to include 15% severe probabilities, through this area likely will change some in come days as forecast details hopefully become more clear. A severe threat could continue into Monday across parts of the mid/lower MS Valley vicinity eastward toward the Appalachians as the cold front continues to surge eastward. A very moist airmass will be in place downstream of the front, but timing differences in the eastward progression of the front among various model output is large, decreasing forecast confidence. The cold front will continue to shift eastward across the eastern U.S. and is expected to move offshore most of the Atlantic coast by Wednesday morning. Depending on timing, some severe threat is possible across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, but again, confidence remains low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 Alright time to get serious* after two cynical posts today (other threads). GFS and Euro are finally lined up on the Plains Sunday. That's going into Ozarks trash so no travel for me. Monday could go in the Lower Miss Valley into the Tennessee Valley if everything lined up. Turning with height has improved over previously forecast junk hodos. Moisture is there. Probably have an ongoing line of storms in progress. That would keep things mainly wind. While I'm not too excited about Monday, it's a whole lot more exciting than praying the October weather pattern somehow holds on into November. Think KC Chiefs blowing leads. Kills my optimism about anything. *Sorry I guess it's all relative, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 19, 2019 Author Share Posted October 19, 2019 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, into portions of the lower Ohio Valley, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Discussion... Rather amplified large-scale troughing over the interior U.S. may take on more of a negative tilt while progressing across the Mississippi Valley during this period. Smaller-scale embedded perturbations/developments remain more unclear due to sizable spread within model output, but it does appear that there may be substantive further deepening of the primary associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone. The center of this feature is expected to migrate from the mid Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest Monday through Monday night, with an occluding surface front surging east of the Mississippi Valley toward the Appalachians. Lapse rates within much of the moistening portion of the warm sector of the cyclone are generally forecast to remain weak, which may limit CAPE to around 500-1000 J/kg within a pre-frontal plume across the lower Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly lower/mid tropospheric flow may include 50-70 kt at 850 mb, and 70-90+ kt at 500 mb, but there may be a tendency for the strongest deep-layer mean wind fields to shift north of the destabilizing warm sector early in the period. Still, there appears potential for the environment to become conducive to the development of a combination of one or more broken lines of storms and discrete supercells, particularly during the day Monday across Louisiana, Mississippi, and adjacent portions of southeast Arkansas and western Alabama, into portions of middle Tennessee, which probably will be accompanied by a risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 Sunday afternoon SPC gave the Monday outlook a haircut. Probably valid. LLJ weakens going into eveing. That's just ugly. One looks for it to strengthen going into evening. HRRR has stuff ahead of the line, but it's the HRRR out 36 hours LOL. WRF versions don't and I think I'll believe meh for HSV to CHA. Wake me up in May. Edit: Wake me up when Mahomes is back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 21, 2019 Author Share Posted October 21, 2019 Have to wait and see into next weekend,WPC seems to be going half way with the Euro and GFS but right now the GFS is much faster.Euro shows the upper level ridge building into the Valley,with a more Bermuda high with a warm front lifting into the lower OV, this would put the Valley into the warm sector,but the lapse rates look really poor right now.But either way what the Euro shows right now this should be some sort of flood threat somewhere in the Valley with the low level shear getting cranked up along with the LLJ,least that what it shows right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Interesting morning in west TN today. Had multiple severe cells come thru, lots of rain and wind. Apparently Memphis had a tornado touch down around the cottonwood apartment complex area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Sure enough MEM damage survey rates EF-1. Little drama for the Mid South to round out an active 12 hours starting back in OK/AR and of course Dallas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 On 10/22/2019 at 9:35 AM, nrgjeff said: Sure enough MEM damage survey rates EF-1. Little drama for the Mid South to round out an active 12 hours starting back in OK/AR and of course Dallas. I guess it’s a good thing that this system moved through just after sunrise instead of during the night. There’s a few neighborhoods that got hit pretty hard. I Have a friend in Memphis who sent me a picture, his neighbor had a enormous Oak tree fall thru the front of the house. Lots of power outages as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 26, 2019 Author Share Posted October 26, 2019 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Recent runs of the medium-range guidance have come into better agreement regarding the position of a deep and broad upper trough expected to be over the CONUS on D4/Tuesday. Model consensus now places this trough from the Hudson Bay through northern CA at 12Z D4/Tuesday. Model consensus regarding the overall evolution of this upper trough is also good, although the speed of eastward progression differs. The faster GFS solution is currently the outlier. Progression of this system and its attendant cold front will dictate the quality of moisture return ahead of it as well as the location for any potential severe thunderstorms. Some severe threat may materialize across the Southeast/TN Valley mid-week but model differences are too high for enough forecast confidence to outlook any areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 @jaxjagman did you see the pictures of multiple big trucks blown over on the Tennessee River Bridge I-40 in Decatur county. Looks like 4 or 5 guys had a rough day, wind gust atop the bridge must of been insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 27, 2019 Author Share Posted October 27, 2019 45 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: @jaxjagman did you see the pictures of multiple big trucks blown over on the Tennessee River Bridge I-40 in Decatur county. Looks like 4 or 5 guys had a rough day, wind gust atop the bridge must of been insane. Those straight line winds must have been howling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 28, 2019 Author Share Posted October 28, 2019 Have to wait and see upcoming,both the GFS and Euro this afternoon shows a chance of severe thunderstorms even Wed NOW.The last run of the Euro, last nights 0Z run compared to this afternoons run has sped the front up almost 6 hours and now brings it across the Mid Valley now 18z Thursday and then to the east but it strenghtens the LLJ as it seemingly crosses east of I-65,GFS is still faster and WPC shows it as the outlier.Looks like the heaviest rain by the Euro is east of I-65 could get 3-4",could even be higher with convection 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 30, 2019 Author Share Posted October 30, 2019 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast States to the Cumberland Plateau through early morning Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast to the Cumberland Plateau... Two primary convective scenarios are apparent through the period. A leading low-level warm advection regime is supporting a swath of ongoing showers with embedded thunder from the central Gulf Coast through AL. A belt of strong low-level flow centered on northern AL will pivot northeast, becoming increasingly separated from the gradient of weak buoyancy to the south. Poor mid-level lapse rates and pervasive stratus should support only meager buoyancy overlapping where enlarged low-level hodographs can persist. While it seems unlikely that any of the clusters will have sustained intensification, a low probability risk for locally strong gusts and a brief tornado will exist through the afternoon. Upstream convective development will be tied to an initially weak warm conveyor region across the Lower MS Valley. Some thinning of cloud coverage is apparent across southern LA into far southern MS which should aid in a confined plume of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg at peak heating). This should aid in late afternoon/early evening storm development just ahead of a weak surface cyclone tracking from the Sabine Valley to the Ark-La-Miss. However, the bulk of strong mid/upper-level flow attendant to a shortwave trough ejecting from the southern Rockies to the Lower MO Valley will lag behind the warm sector through mid to late evening. Cyclogenesis will ensue farther north tonight as tropospheric flow amplifies. However, stronger shear and forcing for ascent should remain misaligned north of where the northern extent of weak surface-based buoyancy can advect across portions of northern MS/AL to middle/eastern TN. The most likely scenario is still for low probability coverage of wind/tornado hazards across the Lower MS and TN Valleys, though the region will be monitored for a possible level 2 categorical risk in later updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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