Holston_River_Rambler Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 2 hours ago, Runman292 said: Another Tornado Warning in southern Cumberland county. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Caught this hail shaft or downburst over Erwin, TN around 530 today. Looked like a hailcore on radar at that time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 52 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Caught this hail shaft over Erwin, TN around 530 today. Mountains make such cool pics when storms roll over them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 Maybe we'll see a shelf today Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected to affect the mid Mississippi, Lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. Other severe storms may occur over parts of eastern Colorado and the Dakotas. ...Middle MS Valley into TN... A long-lived mature linear MCS is tracking across eastern MO into western IL. This activity has resulted in several reports of damaging winds, and will likely persist through the afternoon as it moves into portions of IN and northern KY. The air mass will become progressively less unstable farther east, so it is unclear how far up the Ohio valley the damaging wind threat will persist. But due to uncertainties and the significant mesoscale organization of the system, have expanded the MRGL/SLGT risk areas farther east into central/eastern Kentucky. A second mature linear MCS over western MO is immediately following the first, and has also produced several reports of wind damage. This line appears to be taking a slightly more southerly trajectory, and is tapping a very moist and very unstable air mass. It appears likely that this MCS will become dominant through the day and track across parts of southern MO, southern IL and eventually into KY/TN. Have expanded the ENH risk eastward into these regions to account for this scenario. It is unclear how far southeast this activity will maintain severe intensity. However, based on a few CAM solutions, have extended SLGT risk to the mountains of east TN for tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 Should be a Friday night gem. Hope it rolls down I-24 all the way to Chattanooga. Enhanced is probably the right call. We lack the ingredients for Moderate. No 500 mb short-wave or height falls helps avoid the D-word. In fact 500 mb is neutral to slightly rising. Still we have all kinds of WAA at 700/850 mb from the southwest to feed the beast. How about those MEM surface obs? Yeah the scientific word for that is gross, lol! It's evidence of great instability. However it's capped until the MCS arrives. Another MCS is forecast Saturday, but I'm thinking this first one will be the best. Pure undisturbed airmass is ready to rumble. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 Mesoscale show sbcapes of over 6k in SW Ky,these storms should get really fired up shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 Probably one of the biggest watch boxes ive seen in years in the Valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 This sucker is hauling it. 1 - 2 hours ahead of HRRR. Always liked MCSs as long as they don't have a ton of wind. As MRX mentioned, HRRR has been more consistent with at least timing, while other models like NAM and RGEM have already lost it entirely. HRRR gives the northern limb a boost as it swings through KY and TN, will be interesting to see if, regardless of timing, this predicted aspect of it develops. Radar looks auspicious for that, as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 21, 2019 Author Share Posted June 21, 2019 Tornado Cell South of Hopkinsville 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 That cell definitely looks stout on satellite: The setup is interesting to me since there seem to be 2 lines of more intense convection with one? MCS (colder cloud tops and radar are how I'm distinguishing that) that seem to merge over the OH river on the KY and IL border. I've seen this before with two distinct bows and a gap in the middle and always wondered what the cause for that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Forgot to post this video I shot at my house in Halls. It was that northern most cell in Knox Co. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Here’s a few pic I took. The last photo looks like it could have been a wall cloud or possibly a funnel. . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 There seems to be more imbedded cell structures from I-40 north moving onto the plateau. MRX was talking about a boundary, like a warm front draped across the valley and I’m wondering if it will add more shear to the line?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 Powerful storms here and I imagine across the area. Virtually all of Campbell Co is without power right now. Trees are down everywhere. One fell on a car as it was driving. Just a fast moving bull dozer. It made it across the county in 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 8 hours ago, John1122 said: Powerful storms here and I imagine across the area. Virtually all of Campbell Co is without power right now. Trees are down everywhere. One fell on a car as it was driving. Just a fast moving bull dozer. It made it across the county in 10 minutes. Thankfully, the power only flickered for a few seconds at my place. I did hear a tree fall on my property during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 22, 2019 Author Share Posted June 22, 2019 HRW did well this morning in Middle Tn,it showed the system weaken and break up before it got to Nashville.Weather Channel even showed a shelf North of Nashville this morning.Looks like a MCS coming from the Mo/Valley and lower OV is fixing to swing through later on,seen the SPC is fixing to throw up a possible T-Storm watch up soon.HRRR looks contaminated showing some PW's 2.35",should though see some potential strong storms as it seems to be hitting some better capes getting into Tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 22, 2019 Author Share Posted June 22, 2019 Been awhile since we've seen these type MCS's come through in the summer time, unusual for us in the Valley.We certainly have not seen this in years.Looks like the pattern finally breaks down the first part of the work week then returns with more diurnal rain towards the end of the work week maybe.least this is what the Euro looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 22, 2019 Author Share Posted June 22, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 22, 2019 Author Share Posted June 22, 2019 Storms fell apart in our area but they did hit the OFB in the SW Valley,some good storms going on down S/West and South of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 Really hope we can catch a break with the storms tomorrow. This has been the year of downed trees. Ground is extra saturated from non-stop rain and tree loss is increased significantly in these severe thunderstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 24, 2019 Author Share Posted June 24, 2019 11 hours ago, John1122 said: Really hope we can catch a break with the storms tomorrow. This has been the year of downed trees. Ground is extra saturated from non-stop rain and tree loss is increased significantly in these severe thunderstorms. Models were showing a drying period this week now it's not looking so dry,Looks more diurnal though after today,no big system like the past,right now anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 Definitely juice for the storms that are starting to pop out there. Currently 80 degrees with a DP of 73. Tornado warning popped in Eastern Ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 The SPC did upgrade to a slight risk for much of the eastern TN Valley including an enhanced risk for the northeastern portion. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AREA SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AREA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA...ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds will continue to evolve over the central/southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley today. Other more isolated severe activity may yet occur over northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin and vicinity, and is expected to develop in the next couple of hours over west-central/southwest Texas. ...Discussion... Convection continues to evolve this afternoon as anticipated; with reasoning communicated in prior outlooks still appearing valid at this time, no outlook changes are needed. ..Goss.. 06/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/ ...Central/Southern Appalachians... Morning satellite and radar imagery show a well-defined remnant MCV over southern KY. This trough is embedded with a larger upper trough rotating across the OH/TN valleys. The air mass ahead of the feature is heating rapidly and will become very unstable by mid-afternoon. Strengthening midlevel winds, coupled with strong instability and affects of the MCV will pose a more substantial risk of bowing thunderstorm structures capable of damaging wind gusts. A few supercells cannot be ruled out, along with a risk of isolated tornadoes. Therefore have upgraded much of WV and vicinity to an ENH risk and 30% severe wind probabilities. ...AL/GA... A very warm/humid air mass remains in place today over this region with strong CAPE values expected. Most 12z CAM solutions suggest pockets of afternoon thunderstorm development, although models differ on placement and timing. Those storms that form will pose a risk of strong/damaging wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 Tornado warning north of Knoxville. Rotation/strong winds moving towards Maynardville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 24, 2019 Share Posted June 24, 2019 Strong storms moved through TYS and MRX but most things have calmed down and seem rather tame at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted June 25, 2019 Share Posted June 25, 2019 Tornado warning north of Knoxville. Rotation/strong winds moving towards Maynardville.It’s crazy that Knoxville area has had 2 tornado warnings in less than a week at the end of June. The one Thursday afternoon was on top of me. The one today was 5 miles or so north. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 25, 2019 Author Share Posted June 25, 2019 4 hours ago, PowellVolz said: It’s crazy that Knoxville area has had 2 tornado warnings in less than a week at the end of June. The one Thursday afternoon was on top of me. The one today was 5 miles or so north. . June is generally a quiet month,then gets even more so the next couple months. http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/06/annual-and-monthly-tornado-averages-across-the-united-states/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 6, 2019 Author Share Posted July 6, 2019 MCS dropped down from Kansas into the the Valley today has been showing signs of tropical genesis into the Northern gulf for a few days.We'll have to keep an eye out the next few days,could be some decent rains upcoming anyways for some especially the Eastern Valley ,but alot of uncertainty right now for tornado potential and the track it takes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted July 14, 2019 Share Posted July 14, 2019 @jaxjagman- you expecting any severe cells from tropical storm Barry over the next few day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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