Blue Ridge Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 4 hours ago, WeatherNow said: What you're saying is completely unreal. Link works for me and is a very original site. The problem is entirely yours and related to the sites you entered before. Yeah, no. Doesn’t work like that, buddy. I experienced the same issue as @Windspeed. A similar issue was previously noted on AmWx some time ago. Sometimes it’s the result of malicious script injected w/o the webmaster’s knowledge; other times, an ad can be the culprit. Perhaps don’t be quite so abrasive in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2019 Author Share Posted February 24, 2019 Scam Insight: Personal Information Risk https://www.meteotube.net/video-incredible-tornado-in-columbus-mississippi-feb-23-2019/ This site is safe, but… It asks for personal information and is not well established with the Norton Community. Use caution when entering any of your information on this site. Visit Norton to learn more about personal information risk on Web sites. Age: New This website has been available for a short time. Prevalence: Few Users Very few Norton community members have used this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 24, 2019 Share Posted February 24, 2019 Website does the same to me on mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 I was able to see the video from MS yesterday when another person posted a link to the site in question, but after the ads I saw on that site yesterday, I won't go to anything labelled meteotube unless I have to. "Very original site". Yes. Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 The Columbus, MS tornado has been rated an EF3. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2019 Author Share Posted February 25, 2019 Friday looks uncertain with a lot of model spread.Euro is suppressed ,GFS is North,,BSR looks even more west. Next Friday will be exactly two years that Middle Tn had its severe outbreak in the morning on March 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 1, 2019 Share Posted March 1, 2019 Since no one else has yet, I'll point out that there's a Day 4 risk area out for much of the TN Valley/Dixie Alley region. As usual still a lot of pieces to come together as to exactly how this will play out. Could be about as significant as last Saturday, or more, or less. Worth noting though since model trends have been upward for the possibility of severe weather in the area on Sunday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 1, 2019 Author Share Posted March 1, 2019 https://www.ustornadoes.com/2019/03/01/spring-2019-seasonal-tornado-outlook/ Using analogs of 1995 we had our most 3rd ranked severe of all time,of course during this time frame we was A MORE neutral enso coming of an Nina.Also during this time frame from 1990-1997 we never had a SSWE,would really like to see more study into SSWE's.The last split which was similar to this years was in a weak NINA in 1984 ,on Dec 31st,we broke our all-time record lows temps in Nashville in Jan of 1985 The tornado outbreak in May of 1995 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_1995_tornado_outbreak_sequence Edit:I took out some of the post out because i found some conflicting aspects.Wiki seems to be going by reported tornadoes and not confirmed.80 confirmed tornadoes seemed to be really extreme to me.This by OHX back on May 18,1995, looks more realistic https://www.weather.gov/ohx/19950518 Some of the tornado reports were also wind,hail and thunderstorm reports.But either way that was a heck of a day https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/sp3/plot.php?lat=32.810&lon=87.408&zoom=70&mode=1&bdate=19950518/1200&edate=19950519/1200&torflag=1&windflag=1&hailflag=1&t01=0&t02=5&t03=0&t04=9999&t05=0&t06=9999&t07=0&t08=9999&t09=0&t10=9999&h01=0&h02=9999&w01=0&w02=9999&showt=0&legend=1&showh=-1&showw=-1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 2, 2019 Share Posted March 2, 2019 Well at SPC Broyles goes ENH for Sunday southeast Alabama into parts of southwest Georgia, including 10% hatched tornado. It's aggressive but some CAMs have broken cells. I'm not too interested. Terrain is mostly poor except south side of ENH. The 700 mb level offers wind direction challenges, except farther ahead of the trough. I suppose best cells would be ahead of the main line. Positive tilt just does not give me that feeling. Though 925 mb may be less veered ahead of the line. We'll see. Probably should post in the Southeast Region but I have not been in here for 3-4 days. Happy weekend! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 2, 2019 Author Share Posted March 2, 2019 Nice system showing up next weekend.Potential good system down the road coming off East Asia in the longer range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 I know it's not our area, but portions of Alabama and southern GA are getting rocked this evening. Significant long track tornadoes, some strong and some unfortunately deadly with multiple fatalities. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52142-march-3-2019-severe-threat/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 5 hours ago, Windspeed said: I know it's not our area, but portions of Alabama and southern GA are getting rocked this evening. Significant long track tornadoes, some strong and some unfortunately deadly with multiple fatalities. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52142-march-3-2019-severe-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2019 Author Share Posted March 4, 2019 ERTAF http://atlas.niu.edu/ertaf/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Unfortunately today's event is already the deadliest tornado outbreak since the April 27th-28th outbreak in 2014. I believe there were 34 deaths as a result of that event, though that outbreak covered a much larger region of the country. Of course it only takes one strong EF3+ tornado tracking through a residential area to have a significant number of deaths. The toll in Lee County, Ala. alone stands at 22 and may rise further unfortunately. Datasets located here:http://spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/fatalmap.php 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSVWx Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 4, 2019 Share Posted March 4, 2019 Sunday tornadoes were an example of intersecting boundaries again. While the synoptic WF made it into the Carolinas, the former coastal front became another warm front in South Georgia. Coldest air hanged back in Tennessee, even as the cold front had made it to eastern Alabama. Hence, arctic air did not surge into the risk area. Alabama cold front acted more like a pre-frontal trough, with the coldest air back in Tenn. Georgia warm front intersected Bama trough in Lee County. Damaging tornadoes continued east from there along the WF. Other tornadoes were in the free warm sector. SPC did a good job going hatched in spite for CAMs slop/lines. Of course our thoughts and prayers are with the victims. Next chance of Dixie Alley severe is back in our region, but Day 6 nobody needs to worry yet. If moisture returns (currently questionable after arctic front) the Mid South should see a potent short-wave on Saturday. Main storm system ejects north. Southern energy is progged however, including gradual turning with height. (remember just day 6 models) Later next week, out around Day 9, is another possible day. A little more moisture may be available. First system would start that process, if its front does not get to the Gulf Coast. Both of these could be nothing though. Just things to watch in March. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 5, 2019 Author Share Posted March 5, 2019 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2019 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement through roughly Day 5 (Saturday 3-9), with respect to spatial positioning of the main synoptic features. The GFS remains the more aggressive model with respect to deepening of the upper trough as it crosses the Rockies Day 4 and the Plains Day 5, and thus likewise depicts a much stronger surface cyclone during the Day 5 period. Beyond Day 5, the faster GFS outpaces the slower ECMWF, to the degree that confidence in the potential for accuracy in a convective forecast beyond Day 5 is too low to warrant any areal inclusions. In the Day 4 to 5 time range, when model agreement is higher, it appears that elevated convection will evolve across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, and possibly northward into Nebraska. However, confidence is not high enough that any hail risk evident at this point warrants a Day 4 area. Day 5, a surface cold front is progged to sweep across the central and southern Plains and into Missouri/Arkansas through the day, and then quickly eastward across the Mississippi River into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys overnight. While the strongest large-scale ascent is progged at this time to sweep across the Ozarks vicinity during the day, as the trough takes on a negative tilt, substantial questions remain as to the degree of moistening/destabilization that will be able to occur this far north. Greater severe risk may therefore remain farther south, from east Texas/Louisiana across the Lower Mississippi Valley region, and possibly into the central Gulf Coast states late. Aside from questions regarding instability, this appears likely to be a strongly dynamic system with strong flow/shear covering a broad area. As such, damaging winds, and potential for tornadoes, is evident at this time. At this time, a large 15% probability area will be issued centered on a north-south zone from Missouri to the Lower Mississippi Valley, with additional areal, and risk-level, refinements to be made in subsequent outlooks. ..Goss.. 03/05/2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 6, 2019 Author Share Posted March 6, 2019 ay 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2019 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement over the U.S. through Day 6 (Monday 3-11), with the main upper feature early in the period being a negatively-tilted upper trough that will move quickly out of the central and southern Plains, across the Upper Midwest, and into the Upper Great Lakes Day 4 (Saturday 3-9). As this system continues to progress into eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. Day 5 (Sunday 3-10), a strengthening trough farther west is progged to be digging southward along the West Coast, before shifting more eastward/inland Day 6. At this point, model agreement deteriorates significantly with eastward progression/evolution of this system, and thus forecast confidence remains low during the second half of the period. In the meantime, widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to expand across a large area from eastern portions of the central and southern Plains early Day 4, eastward/northeastward across the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday morning. Given the strength of this system, and the accompanying/strong kinematic field, risk for at least isolated severe storms remains evident -- including potential for damaging winds and some tornado risk. However, a primary limiting factor appears likely to be limited CAPE (in part due to the widespread convective development). As such, will maintain only 15% risk at this time, though strength of this system and accompanying deep-layer wind field warrants attention in future outlooks. Day 5, models suggest that continued cold frontal advance across the East Coast and Gulf Coast states will occur, with the front currently progged to reside near both the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts near the end of the Day 5 period. Ahead of the boundary, modest CAPE but strong shear is expected, warranting introduction of a 15% risk area from the central Gulf Coast to the eastern Carolinas. With the front largely offshore by Day 6, a lull in severe weather risk is evident at this time, prior to the advance of the next western upper system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 On 12Z NAM, hodos are looking very impressive over the AL/MS border region (moreso than further west where instability is greater). Could be another scenario to watch out for prefrontal initiation in that area (as with last Sunday) if it can destabilize. Sounding attached is from a small pocket of higher CAPE depicted near and south of Columbus (ruh roh), MS. I see some slight backing on the wind barbs between 700 and 500 mb, but that doesn't look like game-breaker levels of VBV. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted March 6, 2019 Share Posted March 6, 2019 By no means am I saying this is how it will play out, but it is a little unnerving the date of the analogs on the 18z NAM. April 1998 was the F5 in Davidson Co. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 6 hours ago, TellicoWx said: By no means am I saying this is how it will play out, but it is a little unnerving the date of the analogs on the 18z NAM. April 1998 was the F5 in Davidson Co. The EF5 was in Lawrence County. Only one ever in TN (I think). Also known as the forgotten one. The Nashville one was EF2/3. I am thinking the Nam is way off. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: The EF5 was in Lawrence County. Only one ever in TN (I think). Also known as the forgotten one. The Nashville one was EF2/3. I am thinking the Nam is way off. We shall see. Yeah, I got the counties crossed. 00z backed off. With the main low trending further north, the threat is lessening some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted March 7, 2019 Share Posted March 7, 2019 The common analog on SARS the last several runs is 4/18/69. That system produced an F4 in Greenville, AL killing 2. A total of 13 tornadoes formed, mostly in the F0-F2 range. A 218 mi path was also recorded in southern GA and rated F2. Storm caused 50 injuries, besides the 2 deaths in the F4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 SPC AC 080700 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2019 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLAMISS INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWESTERN TN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday from parts of eastern Oklahoma and Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valleys, lower Ohio Valley, and Southeast. The best potential for scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes appears to be across parts of the ArkLaMiss into northern Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee. A couple of these tornadoes could be strong. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough initially over the southern and central Plains will move rapidly northeastward to the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and OH Valley regions by Saturday evening. An associated surface low over central KS should develop northeastward in the same time frame to the vicinity of eastern IA/northern IL while deepening slightly. A cold front attendant to this surface low will sweep eastward across much of the lower/mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley and Mid-South through the day. The trailing portion of this front should stall over parts of the Southeast Saturday night as this boundary becomes increasingly aligned parallel to the mid-level flow. ...East TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valleys, lower OH Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast... Increasing ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough and a strengthening low-level jet will likely foster an increase in convective coverage and intensity across parts of eastern OK/TX into the ArkLaTex region early Saturday morning. These thunderstorms will have some potential to be surface-based, especially along and south I-40 in central AR where surface dewpoints should reach into the mid 60s to the south of a warm front. A couple tornadoes and isolated damaging winds should be the main threat given the strong low-level shear that will be present, although some large hail could also occur as far northward as the Ozarks in southern MO with any elevated supercells that develop. The main uncertainty regarding the overall magnitude of the severe threat across the lower MS Valley into the Mid South remains the northward extent of potential destabilization. The early morning convection should move quickly east-northeastward in tandem with the low-level jet and surface cold front. It appears that a greater chance for surface-based thunderstorms should occur from parts of the ArkLaMiss region into northern MS and southwestern TN from late Saturday morning into the early afternoon, where MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg could develop. Low-level shear is forecast to be very strong through 18-21Z as a 50-65 kt southwesterly low-level jet overlies this region. Forecast soundings show ample effective SRH to support rotating updrafts, and a few tornadoes could occur, particularly if convection can remain semi-discrete. There is some concern that a couple of these tornadoes could be strong given the very favorable kinematic environment. Scattered damaging winds may also be possible across this region. By late afternoon into the evening, the shortwave trough and strongest mid-level flow will become increasingly displaced to the north of the greater low-level moisture across the TN Valley and Southeast. Still, some severe threat may persist into parts of middle TN and northern/central AL. Farther north into the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley, confidence in sufficient destabilization to support surface-based convection is even more questionable. Regardless, there will be very strong low- and mid-level flow present which could support isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. This threat should wane with eastward extent across southern IN and central KY by Saturday evening as low-level moisture and related instability become increasingly marginal. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight ..Gleason.. 03/08/2019 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0928Z (4:28AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 8, 2019 Author Share Posted March 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 9, 2019 Author Share Posted March 9, 2019 Been in Knoxville for my sons state gymnastics meet ,so i'll miss this one. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHEAST MS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through the early evening. A strong tornado is possible from the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama. ...Synopsis... A vigorous, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Great Plains to the lower MO Valley by mid afternoon and subsequently into the Great Lakes after dark. An intense 90kt 500mb speed max will translate east-northeast from OK into the lower OH Valley by early evening. In the low levels, a surface low will develop northeast from central KS to the IA/IL/MO border by 6pm and into the central Great Lakes overnight. A warm front over the Mid South will advance northward into the lower OH Valley by peak heating and a composite dryline/Pacific front will arc south-southeast from the low into eastern AR and southwestward into east TX by mid afternoon before sweeping east across the OH Valley late. ...Eastern OK/TX into the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys... A complex forecast scenario with associated uncertainty appropriately describes the risk for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes across portions of the Mid South into the lower OH Valley today. At the start of the period, a couple of clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across western portions of the larger-risk area in parts of northeast TX into eastern OK/western AR. Varying possible solutions are evident in model data whether all or parts of this activity moves downstream with intermittent intensification into the MS Valley during the day or whether some of this activity weakens on the southern portion near the Ark-La-Tex during the late morning. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible with the early-day storms over the Ark-La-Tex vicinity. Farther east, an adequately moist/destabilizing warm sector will spread north and northeast in wake of the warm front with surface dewpoints ranging from near 60 degrees F in the lower OH Valley to the middle 60s farther south into TN/AR/MS/AL. Model guidance correspondingly indicates weaker buoyancy will exist farther north (MLCAPEs at or below 500 J/kg north of the OH river to 750-1250 J/kg farther south) but extreme low-level shear. Hodographs become very large by early-mid afternoon with flow increasing from 70-90kt in the 850-500mb layer over the northern half of the Enhanced Risk area. It seems plausible some attempts at storm development will occur during the afternoon near the leading edge of the mid-level dry slot. If the stronger updrafts become sustained, they will likely evolve into supercells with tornado potential. A corridor of possibility for supercell tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears greatest from the OH/MS confluence southward into northern portions of MS on the trailing portion of large-scale ascent moving away from the area. As storms encounter weaker buoyancy farther east and northeast during the evening, a transition to linear structures capable primarily of damaging winds may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 5 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Been in Knoxville for my sons state gymnastics meet ,so i'll miss this one. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Mar 08 2019 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN TN AND NORTHEAST MS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Mid South today through the early evening. A strong tornado is possible from the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers southward into parts of northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama. ...Synopsis... A vigorous, negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central/southern Great Plains to the lower MO Valley by mid afternoon and subsequently into the Great Lakes after dark. An intense 90kt 500mb speed max will translate east-northeast from OK into the lower OH Valley by early evening. In the low levels, a surface low will develop northeast from central KS to the IA/IL/MO border by 6pm and into the central Great Lakes overnight. A warm front over the Mid South will advance northward into the lower OH Valley by peak heating and a composite dryline/Pacific front will arc south-southeast from the low into eastern AR and southwestward into east TX by mid afternoon before sweeping east across the OH Valley late. ...Eastern OK/TX into the mid-MS/lower OH Valleys... A complex forecast scenario with associated uncertainty appropriately describes the risk for severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes across portions of the Mid South into the lower OH Valley today. At the start of the period, a couple of clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast across western portions of the larger-risk area in parts of northeast TX into eastern OK/western AR. Varying possible solutions are evident in model data whether all or parts of this activity moves downstream with intermittent intensification into the MS Valley during the day or whether some of this activity weakens on the southern portion near the Ark-La-Tex during the late morning. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible with the early-day storms over the Ark-La-Tex vicinity. Farther east, an adequately moist/destabilizing warm sector will spread north and northeast in wake of the warm front with surface dewpoints ranging from near 60 degrees F in the lower OH Valley to the middle 60s farther south into TN/AR/MS/AL. Model guidance correspondingly indicates weaker buoyancy will exist farther north (MLCAPEs at or below 500 J/kg north of the OH river to 750-1250 J/kg farther south) but extreme low-level shear. Hodographs become very large by early-mid afternoon with flow increasing from 70-90kt in the 850-500mb layer over the northern half of the Enhanced Risk area. It seems plausible some attempts at storm development will occur during the afternoon near the leading edge of the mid-level dry slot. If the stronger updrafts become sustained, they will likely evolve into supercells with tornado potential. A corridor of possibility for supercell tornadoes (perhaps strong) appears greatest from the OH/MS confluence southward into northern portions of MS on the trailing portion of large-scale ascent moving away from the area. As storms encounter weaker buoyancy farther east and northeast during the evening, a transition to linear structures capable primarily of damaging winds may occur. Can tell a difference in the air mass this morning versus yesterday morning, most certainly feels like a late Spring morning, hope we can get a pass on this one too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 Saturday March 9, 11:30 central time: Differential heating boundary is evident in North Mississippi, noted by 70s temps south and thicker clouds north. This is south of the synoptic WF which is in Kentucky. The Miss boundary should lift to the Tennessee border, perhaps into West Tenn. As the Arkansas front/dry line approaches, it should create intersecting boundaries, Low level convergence is forecast to increase in MS/TN when the Arkansas front approaches. Conceptual and some numerical models have slightly higher storm relative helicity near the lifting MS/TN boundary. SPC and some CAMs have started to highlight this more southern boundary intersection. Compared to the Kentucky triple point, storms should move slower in the Mid South, esp down in Mississippi. Upper winds are strong both areas, but not quite as much South. Storms are a mess in the Delta right now. We'll see if the line breaks up a bit into Mississippi later this afternoon. We can do without human impacts either way. Perhaps the strongest upper dynamics will outrun surface features, but still plenty of winds aloft into evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 13, 2019 Author Share Posted March 13, 2019 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and an isolated tornado threat are expected to develop across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible over portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... Upper-level low pressure over southeast Colorado will deepen early Wednesday while lifting northeast towards southeast Nebraska late Wednesday night. Intense surface low pressure will remain vertically aligned with the upper system, resulting in very strong low/mid-level wind fields across the central/southern Plains east to the lower/mid-Mississippi Valley region. An occluded front will arc northeast from the surface low across Iowa by 00Z and then extend south/southwest as a cold front from eastern sections of Missouri into western Louisiana. ...East Texas/Arklatex to the mid-Mississippi Valley... Remnants of overnight linear MCS should continue to weaken this morning as instability diminishes with eastward extent, however an isolated severe gust will remain possible as stronger convective elements developing ahead of the gust front transport higher momentum air to the surface in the presence of a very strong (60 kt) low-level jet. Despite generally weak mid-level lapse rates, a narrow corridor of lower 60s surface dew points will contribute to surface-based instability of 500 to locally 1000 J/kg by late afternoon/evening just ahead of the cold front from the vicinity of southeast Missouri southward. Strong wind fields will result in deep-layer shear on the order of 60 kts, with curved low-level hodographs supportive of supercells and bowing segments. One limiting factor remains the lack of greater instability, and with large-scale lift shifting north of the area with time, there remains uncertainty regarding storm coverage. High-resolution guidance suggests that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorms with the cold front remains possible, along with more discrete thunderstorm development within the favorable shear-instability region preceding the front. Damaging winds will be primary threat with these storms, and some tornado potential will exist with the more discrete storms and QLCS circulations. No major changes have been made to the risk categories/probabilities with this outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 13, 2019 Author Share Posted March 13, 2019 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and an isolated tornado threat are expected to develop across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible over portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ...Synopsis... Upper-level low pressure over southeast Colorado will deepen early Wednesday while lifting northeast towards southeast Nebraska late Wednesday night. Intense surface low pressure will remain vertically aligned with the upper system, resulting in very strong low/mid-level wind fields across the central/southern Plains east to the lower/mid-Mississippi Valley region. An occluded front will arc northeast from the surface low across Iowa by 00Z and then extend south/southwest as a cold front from eastern sections of Missouri into western Louisiana. ...East Texas/Arklatex to the mid-Mississippi Valley... Remnants of overnight linear MCS should continue to weaken this morning as instability diminishes with eastward extent, however an isolated severe gust will remain possible as stronger convective elements developing ahead of the gust front transport higher momentum air to the surface in the presence of a very strong (60 kt) low-level jet. Despite generally weak mid-level lapse rates, a narrow corridor of lower 60s surface dew points will contribute to surface-based instability of 500 to locally 1000 J/kg by late afternoon/evening just ahead of the cold front from the vicinity of southeast Missouri southward. Strong wind fields will result in deep-layer shear on the order of 60 kts, with curved low-level hodographs supportive of supercells and bowing segments. One limiting factor remains the lack of greater instability, and with large-scale lift shifting north of the area with time, there remains uncertainty regarding storm coverage. High-resolution guidance suggests that redevelopment/re-intensification of thunderstorms with the cold front remains possible, along with more discrete thunderstorm development within the favorable shear-instability region preceding the front. Damaging winds will be primary threat with these storms, and some tornado potential will exist with the more discrete storms and QLCS circulations. No major changes have been made to the risk categories/probabilities with this outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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