nrgjeff Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 Starting Monday it looks cooler again, perhaps for most of next week with scattered thundershowers. Tuesday is currently the day models/NWP highlights for heavier storms in the Valley, but it has shifted around. 36 hours ago NWP favored Monday. At any rate a synoptic system with quality upper level wind fields is forecast early next week for the Valley. Looks mainly eastern half of our region perhaps Tuesday. GFS has upper level wind speed but mostly same direction. Euro has more turning upstairs, upper system a bit more open. If it rains the day before, chance of an outflow boundary increases. If timing changes it could be Mid Atlantic (per NWP 36 hours ago). Finally we'll see if the wind field forecast holds up. Most days with thundershowers should not be severe. Over five days we should be able to absorb that QPF without major flooding concern, at least in Tenn. However the devil is in the local details. Local flash flooding is always possible with thunderstorms. Also with sustained southeast flow, Georgia and up the Blue Ridge could have a lot more precip. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 28, 2018 Author Share Posted July 28, 2018 11 hours ago, *Flash* said: This summer has come full circle from winter. I.e. I can buy into the temps, but I'll believe the precip when I see it the way my lawn is goin... Nashville is going with the Euro.Euro has a shortwave trough coming through the Mid Valley,late night,early morning Tuesday.Wind shear looks weakish right now but at least should be enough for a poor mans severe chance with just thunderstorms,showalter is around -4,in the Mid Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 28, 2018 Author Share Posted July 28, 2018 Euro is slightly different today for us in Mid Tn. from yesterday this time.Monday looks more scattered with weak wind shear but there is a weak shortwave trough coming through..Into the late evening into early morning Tuesday the LLShear starts to pick up.Kinda question the capes the Euro shows with the CAMS,Tuesday.But anyways the LL shear is showing 20 kts into the early afternoon into the early evening here,with the 850mb winds increasing to around 35kts around late afternoon,with another shortwave trough coming though.There would be some decent rains Tuesday afternoon into early evening here at least,if it's right of course.If the CAMS get better we'll have more severe chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 19, 2018 Author Share Posted October 19, 2018 Have to wake this thread up https://www.apnews.com/9ddb3deeec9a49d6a1349b78f1ca0f03 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2.epdf?author_access_token=PQZthaEqlkut62uLi4HlpNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Ofpugx93Jq3uh7IKWsjvSCCm9cT6oavbBDxy4CNfmgPbnVGCtRW0GfAXKcI3DSQ1vbeVbyw-jzqriwQAlEDMNsLcaDsYkvTU-SaxpOcafW-Q%3D%3D 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 The increase in tornado activity on the Delta is convenient because it is flat. However that is just change (delta on the Delta, lol). The Delta is still a local min within Dixie Alley. Maybe it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 19 hours ago, nrgjeff said: The increase in tornado activity on the Delta is convenient because it is flat. However that is just change (delta on the Delta, lol). The Delta is still a local min within Dixie Alley. Maybe it will change. Do you have access to this?Would like to know a little more about the paper,just don't want to spend $35 Not sure if i should ask you that question but i thought i'd give it a shot Abstract The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Gulf of Mexico (GoM) influence winter tornado variability and significant tornado (EF2+) environments. Increases occur in the probability of a significant tornado environment from the southern Plains to Midwest during La Niña, and across the southern contiguous United States (CONUS) during El Niño. Winter significant tornado environments are absent across Florida, Georgia, and the coastal Carolinas during moderate-to-strong La Niña events. Jet stream modulation by ENSO contributes to higher tornado totals during El Niño in December and La Niña in January, especially when simultaneous with a warm GoM. ENSO-neutral phases yield fewer and weaker tornadoes, but proximity to warm GoM climate features can enhance the probability of a significant tornado environment. ENSO intensity matters; stronger ENSO phases generate increases in tornado frequency and the probability of a significant tornado environment, but are characterized by large variance, in which very strong El Niño and La Niña events can produce unfavorable tornado climatological states. This study suggests that it is a feasible undertaking to expand spring seasonal and subseasonal tornado prediction efforts to encompass the winter season, which is of importance given the notable threat posed by winter tornadoes. Significant tornadoes account for 95% of tornado fatalities and winter tornadoes are rated significant more frequently than during other seasons. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0046.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0249.1 Try this Jax, similar subject matter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 19 minutes ago, John1122 said: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0249.1 Try this Jax. Good article,thanks John.I was wanting to know more what her findings were about in Dec. or late autumn into early winter.We are a time time in an El Nino year where tornado activity starts to spike and actually we are only a few weeks to where it peaks in fall severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Why hello there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Why hello there. Definite would be some nice winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 Other than slight timing differences,it's not an outlier right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 Nice system like we talked about in the fall thread last week with the trough going through East Asia and Yutu not re-curving and going into the Phillippines but there still was the trough either way.Storm starts to go -ve tilt somewhere around the Central plains.Would be a nice system but still a long way out but still nice it has some backing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 31, 2018 Author Share Posted October 31, 2018 Euro has a much weaker system,has some KI.Some better showalter in the eastern valley during the day,maybe some thunder.Overall weaker system that stays neutral tilt and don't really go negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 I'll go with the ECMWF Euro as usual. Either way it is rainy crap weather on Election Day. Consider early voting if not already done, weighing the next two days also. Halloween is today and looks like rain tomorrow (Thursday) which is the last day of early voting. I respect no politics on the weather board; we love weather first. Just a note on weather related logistics. Happy and safe Halloween! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 I'll go with the ECMWF Euro as usual. Either way it is rainy crap weather on Election Day. Consider early voting if not already done, weighing the next two days also. Halloween is today and looks like rain tomorrow (Thursday) which is the last day of early voting. I respect no politics on the weather board; we love weather first. Just a note on weather related logistics. Happy and safe Halloween!Thanks, Jeff! No need to remind when you are merely being informative about what to expect weather-wise while people are out exercising their right as citizens. Hopefully no severe variety storms or high wind impact events, and crap rain is all anybody has to deal with that day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 Some better capes down in the Southern Valley,pretty dynamical negative tilted fall storm though shaping up.Still some slight differences in the GFS and Euro.We'll see if the SPC puts anyone in a risk area tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 2, 2018 Author Share Posted November 2, 2018 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0407 AM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Potential exists for a significant severe event to transpire day 4 (Monday) into day 5 (Tuesday) mainly from the lower MS Valley into the Southeast States. Model solutions have converged and demonstrated run to run consistency, depicting significant cyclogenesis to commence by Monday evening over the lower MS Valley in response to an approaching intense upper jet within base of an amplifying shortwave trough. The low is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeast into IL overnight with trailing cold front advancing through the TN and lower MS valley regions. Richer low-level moisture residing over the northern Gulf will advect rapidly northward through the warm sector in response to the strengthening low-level jet, contributing to destabilization with moderate instability possible from east TX into a portion of the Gulf Coast states. Severe storms are likely to develop along advancing cold front Monday afternoon initially from southeast OK into east TX, then spreading into the lower MS Valley and TN Valley regions Monday night. Impressive wind profiles with large hodographs and an intense upper jet will promote a threat for damaging wind, tornadoes and large hail. Severe threat will continue east through portions of the Southeast states and Middle Atlantic Tuesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 12, 2018 Author Share Posted November 12, 2018 Suspect if we get any severe it's going to be into the weekend after next.You have a trough going through East Asia around the 18-19th and a big dip in the PNA which would suggest some volatility .Just a hunch at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 European weeklies have a possible pattern the week after Thanksgiving week; so, a little later into the end of November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 14, 2018 Author Share Posted November 14, 2018 23 hours ago, nrgjeff said: European weeklies have a possible pattern the week after Thanksgiving week; so, a little later into the end of November. Some of the long range models don't really show much of a warm up now,guess we'll see,think the date you are talking about is around the 28-29 ?Right now looks more winter than severe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Like John brought up in the winter threads a potential severe threat would be this coming Saturday.The question would be what kind of convection happens south of us which could choke off instabilities.But this system is starting to look like the system we saw earlier this month with a nose of cape with some very good helicities like the GFS shows this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 GFS backed off tonight,convection down south like the Euro has been showing,still could be severe in some parts especially more western to southern Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 ECMWF remains consistent with a chance of severe weather Friday night and Saturday from the Mid-South to the eastern Tennessee Valley. Many details need to work out from instability to short-wave timing. Looks like multiple waves, which can giveth or taketh away. I infer from the text SPC really wants to outlook Saturday, but I agree it would be hard to place the 15%. Too early to worry for those who dislike severe. Just those of us who like it, we want to track it. Honestly, at Day 6, it is not any more likely than snow in Dixie, lol! PS.. I will comment on December after the ECMWF weeklies update. Maybe I should have stayed with Carver for Dec. Did I go cold too fast? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: ECMWF remains consistent with a chance of severe weather Friday night and Saturday from the Mid-South to the eastern Tennessee Valley. Many details need to work out from instability to short-wave timing. Looks like multiple waves, which can giveth or taketh away. I infer from the text SPC really wants to outlook Saturday, but I agree it would be hard to place the 15%. Too early to worry for those who dislike severe. Just those of us who like it, we want to track it. Honestly, at Day 6, it is not any more likely than snow in Dixie, lol! PS.. I will comment on December after the ECMWF weeklies update. Maybe I should have stayed with Carver for Dec. Did I go cold too fast? Nah, man. I think you all will be right. If that cold is anywhere close to being what is on the EPS, I have a difficult time seeing the back half of December getting us back to normal. Same deal with this month. As for severe, I just want some decent wind to knock these last leaves down. Today has been good for that. Right now, I still have like two more weeks of leaves thanks to this tree in my front yard! It always drops them last. Also in terms of severe(pretty much a novice on my part), but I thought today how strong this front was that brought in the cold. Seems like we are in a pattern with strong fronts and those can definitely favor storms. We are also in the time frame where I think if we see severe near the mountains that snow follows within two weeks...or something like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 26, 2018 Author Share Posted November 26, 2018 Euro looked better today.System looks more - tilt, plus this run it has a decent shortwave coming through the Valley.Just like the last system some large hodos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 27, 2018 Author Share Posted November 27, 2018 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Tue Nov 27 2018 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Though minor differences in amplitude exist, ensemble members are in good agreement regarding a progressive shortwave trough that is forecast to advance through the lower MS and TN Valley regions Friday night (day 4) into Early Saturday (day 5). Modifying air from the Gulf with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will advect through the lower MS Valley warm sector Friday resulting in marginal near-surface based CAPE within a weak lapse rate environment. Areas of clouds and a few showers and thunderstorms will likely be in progress along warm conveyor belt during the day, and this lowers confidence in degree of destabilization. Winds aloft and vertical shear will strengthen overnight, becoming supportive of organized storms including supercells with damaging wind and a few tornadoes possible. For Saturday (day 5) though some severe threat may linger ahead of the advancing cold front from the Gulf Coast states into a portion of the TN Valley, tendency will be for the stronger winds aloft and deeper forcing to gradually move away from the more unstable portion of the warm sector. This along with ongoing widespread precipitation, lowers overall confidence in degree of any severe threat at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 The local Christmas parade is Saturday evening around 6 but there will be lots of float and parade prep from 3-6 as well. I'm hoping we can avoid the severe during that time frame if we can't avoid the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 4 hours ago, John1122 said: The local Christmas parade is Saturday evening around 6 but there will be lots of float and parade prep from 3-6 as well. I'm hoping we can avoid the severe during that time frame if we can't avoid the rain. Realized the same thing this afternoon. Same deal here. Any updates on timing for the forum area would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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