Witness Protection Program Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 The stuff dive bombing Arkansas from MO/KS is flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Tornado warning issued for Rhea and Bledsoe counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, Runman292 said: Tornado warning issued for Rhea and Bledsoe counties. Looks like it's starting to lose it's punch,there was a 3" hail marker earlier from the cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Looks like it's starting to lose it's punch,there was a 3" hail marker earlier from the cell Some rotation again my last scan headed towards Spring City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 headed towards Spring City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 Looks like the rotation died again but some 2" hail marker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, *Flash* said: For west/middle Tennessee, today was essentially the winter storm equivalent of being dry-slotted. Yeah i'm disappointed,all i wanted was a light show instead have temps of 85 at 10pm and dp's in the mid 70's..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 Going S of Spring City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 See if it last.still some rotation headed towards Decatur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Starting to pop up from Hendersonville and the Cumberland River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Extremely heavy t-storm passing my area as we speak. Winds are probably gusting to 60mph, I'd estimate the rainfall at 3+ inches per hour at this rate. Looks like a bow echo on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 You get any damage? That line that just crossed US27 looks pretty nasty, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 New MD: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1113.html And Severe Watch replaces the Tor Watches: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0297.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Wide spread downed trees and power outages here. Power is still out in portions of the county. Rained 1.75 inches and I'd guess peak winds at 60-70mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 This was the biggest joke of a tornado watch. Almost no severe reports in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 You guys in the East have done quite well this summer,rain,severe,etc.etc.We didn't even get a drop of rain yesterday.That's the life of the Valley,someone is going to get screwed any type of season..lol. The Euro actually did well for you guys with this system and it showed this for several runs but for some reason it wigged out at the last minute and showed a more severe in the Mid Valley. Long range models show a more neutral/positive tilted trough around next weekend.With a cold front,timing issues.But instabilities looks weak.The Euro would seem to maybe bring a marginal risk if that .If the Euro were to be right,right now there would seem to be some short waves rotating underneath to cause some more isolated severe threat Longer range could get interesting though.In East Asia there looks to be several tropical systems, typhoons on the maps upcoming the next few days,can we get something to re-curve?.Looks pretty active ,right now in that part of the world.So any long range the models shows will probably struggle some what. Then looking into August the Euro and GEFS wants to kill the MJO,from the Euro aspect and it's biased nature into phase 6 it typically gets finicky.Into the first part of August the MJO seems to be possibly getting into the GOM, signs of KW into the GOM as well right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 51 minutes ago, Chinook said: This was the biggest joke of a tornado watch. Almost no severe reports in it. Perfect example of why more money need to be spent on American modeling.Yesterday CANSips and even SHARPpy showed analogs of 7//4/2004,though this was more wind and hail.I almost posted a pic of it,now i wish i did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 7/4/04 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=MV&fhr=F036&rundt=2018071912&dt=2004070412 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 4 hours ago, jaxjagman said: 7/4/04 http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=MV&fhr=F036&rundt=2018071912&dt=2004070412 July 4, 2004 had quite a few storm reports from Kansas to western and central Tennessee https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040704_rpts.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 23, 2018 Author Share Posted July 23, 2018 Euro got slightly better into the weekend,around Sunday/Monday.GFS even shows some capes now.Not a great severe look but it's still 7 days out. Euro this afternoon shows a shortwave trough going through the Tn Valley during this time,instabilities still look weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 23, 2018 Author Share Posted July 23, 2018 SOI took a big dip recently the last couple days.Asia is more or less showing the HP into Korea getting shifted more into China upcoming .Should be a warmup into the first of August and potentially a nice system into the 2nd week of August.Also potential of a CCKW into wk 2 of August,watch the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 23, 2018 Author Share Posted July 23, 2018 Severe fall the models seems to be getting away from any Modoki,more crap look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 Friday night set up east of the highest SPC probabilities. Believe the main problem was a warmer layer (cap) for Middle Tenn. Meanwhile a boundary set up from Kentucky to North Georgia. It started out in Middle Tenn. but was capped. Despite lower overall parameters east, the low levels closed the deal. Boundary enhanced low level shear. It got real near Spring City for a bit. Neighbors and I were watching the distant lightning. Watching the lightning reminded me of waiting for nocturnal storms back in the Plains. However we were concerned for the people up in the tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 I might have missed a post about this...We were out of town last week as mentioned in the banter thread. However, because we were two hours behind in the Rockies, I saw the thunderstorm lines approaching Kingsport. I actually contacted my family to let them know that they were incoming. Colonial Heights go absolutely hammered. My house was without power for 24 hours after initially not being without power. A tree came down the next night which I assume was damaged on Friday. As of last night some homes had been without power for 48 hours. Heck, I even think the NOAA transmitter was knocked out... I would not be surprised if other posters in the area were/are without power. Cooks Valley was hit pretty hard as well. @Windspeed, how did you fair? https://www.wjhl.com/local/nws-noaa-weather-radio-transmitter-knocked-out-by-storms/1316293579 Here is the Kingsport power outage story.... https://www.wjhl.com/local/thousands-without-power-in-the-tri-cities/1313358631 Here are some slide shows... https://www.wjhl.com/news/viewer-photos-720-severe-thunderstorms/1315189683 https://www.wjhl.com/local/nightwatchman-pinned-inside-truck-tree-crashed-onto-camper-at-warriors-path-state-park/1314446733 https://www.timesnews.net/gallery/Friday-night-storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 1 hour ago, *Flash* said: Still a bit sore about this in my attempt to find 'lessons learned'. Clearly, with respect to the outlook/risk zones pre-Friday PM, this system overachieved on the east side. Curious if any could make a case that this was NOT a low verification score event. I guess for now I'll hang my 'future reference' hat on this: On sharp right turning systems, pay close attention to stable/sinking air intrusion from the northwest. Storms will likely fire on both sides of this zone as the SPC storm report graphic confirms (per NashvilleSevereWx). Or to put it another way, perhaps this system was the winter storm equivalent of dry-slotting. Just some raw ideas for thought... Flash, great share and post. I wonder if time of day saved Nashville along w the ideas that you mentioned? I think NE TN took it on the chin because the storms fired and held together late in the day into the evening. But totally agree that systems that turn sharp, right-turning systems have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 24, 2018 Author Share Posted July 24, 2018 The Euro would have done great with this system if it wouldn't have crapped out at the last minute.For several runs before it showed a "LID" in place over Mid Tn. and the strongest storms over east of I-65 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted July 24, 2018 Author Share Posted July 24, 2018 Kinda Modoki look into fall by Jamstec,we haven't had a good fall severe for some time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 7 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Kinda Modoki look into fall by Jamstec,we haven't had a good fall severe for some time. Good find. The Euro Weeklies from yesterday likely support that. BN heights and AN precip over the SE, though they certainly have the coldest temps in the lee of the Rockies. That look is pretty consistent throughout its 46 day run with maybe some weakening of the cold in the lee of the central Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 24, 2018 Share Posted July 24, 2018 I can handle temps in the mid 80s during the worst of summer, even upper 80s. Every day we steal from the grips of Dog Days is one less day from potentially the hottest time of the year. Kind of like the reverse of winter when we sometimes get AN temps during the middle of our coldest time frame in January. The LR models and Euro Weeklies(see also the JAMSTEC that Jax posted...) seem to be transitioning to a Nino-is pattern. Seems like they jumped the gun once...but I suspect this is a legit transition now w the amount of rain we are receiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Looks like the Euro try’s to cool off significantly towards the end of its ten day run, potential flooding look for Chattanooga over to Atlanta around the 4th of August. Still a ways out but North GA was showing 7.5 inches of rain for that timeframe, 2.5 for chatt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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