1/8/18 Wintry Mix Event OBS and last minute forecasts.

[John1122]

Trying to keep the longer range thread for forecasting.  

Now cast situation here.

Temps from the Plateau and East seem to be between 28 and 32 with wet bulbs in the low to mid 20s. Ground is extremely frozen and any precip that falls should produce a nice sheen.  Unfortunately west of the plateau the WAA was unfettered with temps from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Will have to see if the WWA can verify for places like Cookeville. 

[Kasper]

Currently 28, Dewpoint 12 wind north at 3mph here in Athens! 

[jaxjagman]

Cool,just seen this or i'd be posting here

[jaxjagman]

Duh,i see you just started this..lol

[realdeal2414]

28 here with a DP of a whopping 7

[Kasper]

Radar obs are overachieving big time it seems!

[JCVol]

29 here cloudy in Jeff County

[BlunderStorm]

Currently 26 with a Dew Point of 4. Little to no wind whatsoever.

[John1122]

As Jax pointed out, the WAA is a beast. Crossville has warmed from 31 to 33 with clear skies. We will see if they can wet bulb or not. 

[ShawnEastTN]

29, Dewpoint -0.9

[Stovepipe]

31 dewpoint 9 in west knox.

[Kasper]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

As Jax pointed out, the WAA is a beast. Crossville has warmed from 31 to 33 with clear skies. We will see if they can wet bulb or not. 

Would this not be more of a Valley Event? With the ridges, plateau and mountains warming sooner? Of course I guess with the precip breaking out sooner than expected, could the WAA be stronger than modeled?

[Chattownsnow]

Just now, Kasper said:

Would this not be more of a Valley Event? With the ridges, plateau and mountains warming sooner? Of course I guess with the precip breaking out sooner than expected, could the WAA be stronger than modeled?

The precip to our west looks fairly robust. I would think if precipitation over preforms that means more WAA. Winds have been from the south here all day. 

[PowellVolz]

Would this not be more of a Valley Event? With the ridges, plateau and mountains warming sooner? Of course I guess with the precip breaking out sooner than expected, could the WAA be stronger than modeled?

If WAA is stronger than modeled, that would be very rare. In fact it’s usually the opposite.


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[John1122]

5 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Would this not be more of a Valley Event? With the ridges, plateau and mountains warming sooner? Of course I guess with the precip breaking out sooner than expected, could the WAA be stronger than modeled?

The mountain tops will always warm faster and Crossville is a pretty prime spot for warming because it's comparitively flat. But they still were fprecast to get down to 27 tonight.  On the west side, Cookeville is forecast to hit 32 but they've warmed to 37. 

[JCVol]

28 now with partly cloudy skies...still very little wind

[Bango]

29, north side of kingsport, seems like these forecasted lows are gonna bust quite hard...i expect a quicker then expected switch to rain...

[Carvers Gap]

0z NAM appears to be initializing way west w the precip compared to radar and what is hitting the ground.  That look suspect to anyone?

[Stovepipe]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

0z NAM appears to be initializing way west w the precip compared to radar and what is hitting the ground.  That look suspect to anyone?

Yep, the 3km doesn't show the precip even touching the plateau until 12z.

[Kasper]

These clouds moving in have become the enemy! 

[Jed33]

Got 27 here at the house. No wind to speak of. However, I can see stars through the clouds, not entirely clear, but not thick overcast either.

[Blue Ridge]

28 w/ wet bulb of 22.35 in Greeneville. Very light breeze at times. 

[John1122]

Temp has fallen to 30 here. Been waves of virga moving across. Not sure if the drop is in response to wet bulbing or not. 

Areas seeing warming are seeing strong S winds. Crossville has winds out of the South at 18.  Cookeville S at 11. 

[EastKnox]

30 with a wetbulb of 24 in East Knoxville.  No wind.

[JCVol]

27...mostly clear skies in Jeff City wet bulb 22.6

[ShawnEastTN]

29 Wetbulb 25, dewpoint has risen considerable after some virga moved over.  Went from 0 to now 15.

[TellicoWx]

27.7 with a wb of 25 here on the ridge in SE Monroe....wind is still light (2.2) out of NNE.

[TellicoWx]

When the wind picks up here you can tell the downsloping starts....dp falls until wind lets up.

[PowellVolz]

Down to 28 on the north Knox co line. Very little wind


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[ShawnEastTN]

No wind here at all or at least not measurable.