NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 For what is worth, long range RAP and HRRR are much warmer at the surface than the other guidance. Some instances over 10* warmer especially in far North VA/Far E WV. NAM solutions being the coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 41 minutes ago, NinjaWarrior2 said: For what is worth, long range RAP and HRRR are much warmer at the surface than the other guidance. Some instances over 10* warmer especially in far North VA/Far E WV. NAM solutions being the coldest. 3k NAM nailed Thursday and RAP/HRRR were hot garbage as usual. You could run a flamethrower on my street for an hour and every flake/pellet would still stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 26 minutes ago, feloniousq said: 3k NAM nailed Thursday and RAP/HRRR were hot garbage as usual. You could run a flamethrower on my street for an hour and every flake/pellet would still stick. Hi res rgem did well last week. Very light qpf on the edge while other guidance was much further west and higher qpf. 0z nams insist on not much nw of dc. 18z hi res rgem would be a legit event. Temps are dicey close in but would be a legit ice/sleet event nw. We'll see if the 0z run dries up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I've gotten sleeted on more than once the last few years. Must....resist...reply....Fighting the RR monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Must....resist...reply....Fighting the RR monster Slow pitch softball. I've been waiting for RR since I posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 RGEM bumped up the amount of freezing rain a little. Whether it's right or wrong, it hasn't changed much over its last 5 runs. I'd be suspicious of its surface temps, but it has support from the 3k NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 59 minutes ago, cae said: RGEM bumped up the amount of freezing rain a little. Whether it's right or wrong, it hasn't changed much over its last 5 runs. I'd be suspicious of its surface temps, but it has support from the 3k NAM and GFS. All it takes is .00000001 QPF of that stuff to cause havoc... No thank you... I rather have rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Slow pitch softball. I've been waiting for RR since I posted it. I’m overseas. I was sleeping. Now you and Randy ruined all the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Nam says it's a sunny day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 14 hours ago, yoda said: SE MD and parts of C VA are not in the WWA That’s because they don’t get winter weather in those parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: That’s because they don’t get winter weather in those parts. ok.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8, 2018 Author Share Posted January 8, 2018 Loudoun and Fairfax closed lol. 22 outside. Can’t see how it warms up like the HRRR shows but it wouldn’t surprise me if we fail, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 It's partly cloudy right now. We need those clouds to thicken up by 8 to keep that sun from torching the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 If the nam wins this it will be my go to model for the rest of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Hi res RGEM keeps central and northern MD below freezing and drops 0.1” precip beginning around 3. DC in the 0.05” but is mid to upper 30s. Highest impacts would be confined to areas north of DC as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: 17/6 . If..... anything falls it's instant stickage 3k has most areas staying in the 20s 15/4 IMBY -- will be interesting to see if we make it above freezing today or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 31 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: If the nam wins this it will be my go to model for the rest of the year You're late to the party. It's been mine for the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 was 18.2 at 5:40 when I left. I'm sure I will hit 40 before any precip comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Not sure what to make of the Hrrr. ...it's coming in a little wetter but has everyone above freezing by like 11am -12 ...... 10 degree difference between it and the 3knam This winter, whenever the High Rez NAM has been correct, it has been 24 karat correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 I caught a segment this morning before work on The Weather Channel. They are just calling for a regular cold rain in the cities and southeast of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Have some light snow just on my doorstep it appears. It would be nice to get a small layer of snow down before the unavoidable change to rain. 23/5 Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 The RAP and HRRR tend to be too aggressive with mixing and often scour out low-level cold air too quickly. In the Dec 2016 ice event, they consistently warmed our area into the 40s when we were stuck at freezing. The NAM nest is usually much better with low-level cold air, but it can actually keep it in too long. Granted, the Dec 16 event was a much bigger storm, and no two cases are the same, but I’d probably lean NAM nest for this one, especially over central MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Everything's salted to hell and back and QPF is going to be incredibly light. I don't see how this is an issue at all. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Pavement temps in MD seem largely in the teens and low to mid-20s. http://www.chart.state.md.us/travinfo/weatherstationdata.asp Can't find similar data for VA but I assume they're similar. Seems like onset time is the key. If this becomes a noon to 1 event instead of a 4-6 PM event, that's gonna have a lot of people stuck at work. 21/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Everything's salted to hell and back and QPF is going to be incredibly light. I don't see how this is an issue at all. Am I missing something? Depends on the road temps. Salt is ineffective below 15 degrees I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: Depends on the road temps. Salt is ineffective below 15 degrees I believe. True, but we don't use straight sodium chloride...we mix with calcium chloride and beet juice. Works down to -5 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 BaltCo and HoCo closing three hours early. Sorry we let you down, Mattie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Ice events in D.C. are just like high ratio snow events....Unicorns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: BaltCo and HoCo closing three hours early. Sorry we let you down, Mattie Think about the traffic doing that creates. Should have just closed...that decision wasn't just made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: BaltCo and HoCo closing three hours early. Sorry we let you down, Mattie MoCo is holding firm for now and I don't blame them. I would guess they'll shutdown after school activities, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.