January Mid-Long Range Disco

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Bologna dude. We had plenty of warm and snowless periods in the 70s and 80s. Stop posting BS. It may be more common the last 20 years but saying the 70s and 80s were wall to wall cold is a steaming pile of crap. 

You’re wasting your time Bob.  This guy is so bad, there aren’t words.

Im sure he’s still changing the world from the basement.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

You’re wasting your time Bob.  This guy is so bad, there aren’t words.

Im sure he’s still changing the world from the basement.

I'm always going to call total BS out regardless. There's a lot of younger folks on the board who weren't alive during the 70s and 80s who probably think they were "the good ole days gone by" but that is far from the truth. The 70s pretty much sucked for snow until 78-79. No big storms at all and a couple near shutouts. The 80's had some great periods but plenty of rain and warmth there too. If anything, the period from 02-03 to 14-15 is arguably the best 12 year stretch of winters since the 60s. 

[Bob Chill]

Euro jumps on the train of activity after fropa next weekend. Would be a light event verbatim but closing off h5 behind the front is one of those juiced clipper types of setups. Parsing details is silly but seeing energy embedded in the flow like that gives credence to the gefs' active idea and it's not all that far down the road. The waves running the boundary are awful hard to get right in these parts but something digging behind is a much easier way and very believable. Resolving those features is a med/short range process. 

[wxdude64]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm always going to call total BS out regardless. There's a lot of younger folks on the board who weren't alive during the 70s and 80s who probably think they were "the good ole days gone by" but that is far from the truth. The 70s pretty much sucked for snow until 78-79. No big storms at all and a couple near shutouts. The 80's had some great periods but plenty of rain and warmth there too. If anything, the period from 02-03 to 14-15 is arguably the best 12 year stretch of winters since the 60s. 

I'd agree with this MINUS the 10-11 winter, that was trash.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm always going to call total BS out regardless. There's a lot of younger folks on the board who weren't alive during the 70s and 80s who probably think they were "the good ole days gone by" but that is far from the truth. The 70s pretty much sucked for snow until 78-79. No big storms at all and a couple near shutouts. The 80's had some great periods but plenty of rain and warmth there too. If anything, the period from 02-03 to 14-15 is arguably the best 12 year stretch of winters since the 60s. 

Please continue to. There is too much BS going around from people who have an agenda or don't know climo. 

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Euro jumps on the train of activity after fropa next weekend. Would be a light event verbatim but closing off h5 behind the front is one of those juiced clipper types of setups. Parsing details is silly but seeing energy embedded in the flow like that gives credence to the gefs's active idea and it's not all that far down the road. The waves running the boundary are awful hard to get right in these parts but something digging behind is a much easier way and very believable. Resolving those features is a med/short range process. 

When the gfs and ggem both held the look for several runs and euro started to slowly trend that way I bought in. Not to snow but to the general pattern idea on the gfs. I can't remember a time when the euro was getting schooled by the gfs on pattern recognition day 6-10 this bad and for this long.  Until that changes when the ggem and gfs agree and are supported by the geps and gefs the euro is hard to give much stock too. 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

I'd agree with this MINUS the 10-11 winter, that was trash.

There were a lot of big storms and some really close misses like Feb 2007 and another in 04 or 05 (can't remember specifics but it was close).

For the MA we had an unusual amount of 12"+ storms in the burbs. Feb 03, Feb 06, Dec 09, Feb 10 x 2, Jan 11, Feb 14, and Feb 16. That's a solid line up right there. March 14 for honorable mention too. 

[Ji]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm always going to call total BS out regardless. There's a lot of younger folks on the board who weren't alive during the 70s and 80s who probably think they were "the good ole days gone by" but that is far from the truth. The 70s pretty much sucked for snow until 78-79. No big storms at all and a couple near shutouts. The 80's had some great periods but plenty of rain and warmth there too. If anything, the period from 02-03 to 14-15 is arguably the best 12 year stretch of winters since the 60s. 

since 02-03, we have seen  1(Feb 03) 2 (Dec 09) 3 (Feb 10) 4(feb 10) 5(Jan 16)....5 once in a lifetime storms.

in addition, the VD sleet storm was historic in 2007. Plus I am not counting anything from 13-14 and 14-15 lol

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

since 02-03, we have seen  1(Feb 03) 2 (Dec 09) 3 (Feb 10) 4(feb 10) 5(Jan 16)....5 once in a lifetime storms.

in addition, the VD sleet storm was historic in 2007. Plus I am not counting anything from 13-14 and 14-15 lol

i agree with all this and what bob said regarding the big events, and 13/14-14/15 might have been the single greatest 2 year stretch i've seen here, but i do think we're a bit more boom/bust then back in the day.  i felt like smaller (2-4/3-6") events were easier to come by, though i could be wrong.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i agree with all this and what bob said regarding the big events, and 13/14-14/15 might have been the single greatest 2 year stretch i've seen here, but i do think we're a bit more boom/bust then back in the day.  i felt like smaller (2-4/3-6") events were easier to come by, though i could be wrong.

we do need more January 82 type storms...4-8 inches with snow heavy at times. Storms that start around 7am and end around 6pm...pouring snow at Noon

[BristowWx]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro jumps on the train of activity after fropa next weekend. Would be a light event verbatim but closing off h5 behind the front is one of those juiced clipper types of setups. Parsing details is silly but seeing energy embedded in the flow like that gives credence to the gefs' active idea and it's not all that far down the road. The waves running the boundary are awful hard to get right in these parts but something digging behind is a much easier way and very believable. Resolving those features is a med/short range process. 

Thanks Bob. Good info and we will watch it.  The rest of this crap can go to banter or panic.  h5 looked good on 12z GFS for something follow up after front.  Let’s see what happy hour does...or crappy hour as it can be known

[Vice-Regent]

48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Bologna dude. We had plenty of warm and snowless periods in the 70s and 80s. Stop posting BS. It may be more common the last 20 years but saying the 70s and 80s were wall to wall cold is a steaming pile of crap. 

What is to be expected in the end? I think you know the answer. DC must be a warm hole.

[coh]

Were the 70s as bad in the mid Atlantic as they were where I was (Long Island)? For me,  the 70s were mostly, a giant wasteland for snow, except for 78-79 as someone mentioned. We did cash in with the Feb 78 blizzard, which remains the single most intense snowstorm I've experienced (24", strong winds, very high snow rates), though a couple of upstate storms have come close since we've been up here.

[Ji]

12z jma looks interesting

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[yoda]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

12z jma looks interesting

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

It does.... It looks to be a Sat into Sun event lol... Though not sure when the 850s get below zero in our area as 144 we are above and 168 we are below... wish there was a 156 panel

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

It does.... It looks to be a Sat into Sun event lol... Though not sure when the 850s get below zero in our area as 144 we are above and 168 we are below... wish there was a 156 panel

144 we are barely above normal lol

[frd]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs throws out a weenie run in the face of the sucky op. Lol. Very active and complicated process happening over the next 10 days. There is no way to know how any of it works out until the fropa is resolved and how the trough aligns behind it. 

Would not be surprised to see the Euro change up on the long range in reducing the duration of the thaw. The thaw is coming, but not so sure its going to be as long as some say. After a few days of strengthening the PV , the reverse starts up again with further disruptions appearing more and more likely. Many indications that we go back to cold. I like the deep snowcover in Southeat Canada as a very cold source region myself, and as HM alluded to today , just because the MJO might say warm phases it does not have to go down like that at all.       

[Negnao]

41 minutes ago, coh said:

Were the 70s as bad in the mid Atlantic as they were where I was (Long Island)? For me,  the 70s were mostly, a giant wasteland for snow, except for 78-79 as someone mentioned. We did cash in with the Feb 78 blizzard, which remains the single most intense snowstorm I've experienced (24", strong winds, very high snow rates), though a couple of upstate storms have come close since we've been up here.

Late 70s were pretty good. Annual snowfall at DCA:

77-78- 22.7

78-79: 37.7

79-80: 20.1

[WeathermanB]

2014 all over again: i can walk on the side of a frozen river, just not in the center today

[Cobalt]

Just now, WeathermanB said:

2014 all over again: i can walk on the side of a frozen river, just not in the center today

Save that for the OBS thread. This is for long range disco just so you know

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

144 we are barely above normal lol

Yes... looks like +4 or so.  But who knows about the 2m temps

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yes... looks like +4 or so.  But who knows about the 2m temps

anyway...its not happening so it dosent matter

[yoda]

12z EPS look terrible if you want any snow... few members here and there with an inch or two, and one or two with 2 to 3 inches for the entire run... but nothing looking good in that department

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z EPS look terrible if you want any snow... few members here and there with an inch or two, and one or two with 2 to 3 inches for the entire run... but nothing looking good in that department

I think the eps is in catchup mode in general. Snow isn't going to come easy but our chances from sun-thurs next week are as good as any we've had so far honeslty. Active northern stream and cold around. 

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, frd said:

Would not be surprised to see the Euro change up on the long range in reducing the duration of the thaw. The thaw is coming, but not so sure its going to be as long as some say. After a few days of strengthening the PV , the reverse starts up again with further disruptions appear more and more likely. Many indications that we go back to cold. I like the deep snowcover in Southeat Canada as a very cold source region myself, and as HM alluded to today , just because the MJO might say warm phases it does not have to go down like that at all.       

It started already with the 12z eps. You can see warmth on the way out of north America by d14-15. Looks like a -ao building as well. Just need to lose the +epo/-pna and we're right back in it. 

[frd]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It started already with the 12z eps. You can see warmth on the way out of north America by d14-15. Looks like a -ao building as well. Just need to lose the +epo/-pna and we're right back in it. 

Bob, maybe we get the- AO and also go back to a - EPO too, not sure about the + PNA, maybe we go towards an over running pattern in Feb  , like the one forecasted before,  but it never got going. Plus,  after Jan 20 th , as Matt said a few days ago,  we enter (  the DC area ) peak snow climo , I guess that lasts until just after President's day time frme.   

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

Bob, maybe we get the- AO and also go back to a - EPO too, not sure about the + PNA, maybe we go towards an over running pattern in Feb  , like the one forecasted before,  but it never got going. Plus,  after Jan 20 th , as Matt said a few days ago,  we enter (  the DC area ) peak snow climo , I guess that lasts until just after President's day time frme.   

It's an intesting period d10-15 honestly. There's been a fairly abrupt shift in ens mean guidance showing that the d11-15 warm period is going to be trasnient instead of a "new regime". If we get a legit -ao going by the last week of Jan then we'll prob be in good shape for chances. 

The next 2 weeks look like a typical roller coaster right now. Warm leading into the next 2 weekends with a break to cold or seasonal after both. That's a lot different than 2 weeks of a shutout pattern. 

[mitchnick]

What a waste of a beautiful short wave on the 18z gfs at 156-168 hrs.

[mitchnick]

Looks like gfs may be going for the gold after 200 hrs, but it could also be a miss....we'll see

[mitchnick]

What's that word when the same things happen over and over again and you expect the result to be different? ...

Don't say it, I know it already.  

[Bob Chill]

It's a half decent period after the rain moves out next weekend mitch. Even if the gfs showed something good it would be gone in 6 hours. Hopefully we'll have something legit to discuss by wed-thurs.