January Mid-Long Range Disco

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Call me the optimist but looking at the Gefs I only see 2 warm days thru day 10...Thurs/Fri  ..cold before and cold enough after to be in the game  .I'm not going to dare look past that.  As far as threats ...inside 96 hours I start intently tracking . 

Smart. Not saying it will happen but next weekend's system could be enough of a phasing solution (doesnt necessarily mean snow here) that it throws a wrench into the warm pattern for the following week as a 50/50 sets up. You can already see the warmth getting muted and a progressively quicker return to the freezer trying to get signaled farther out. Like you said, I wont look past day 10 this year. Fool me once, shame on you. Feel me twice, shame on me. Brief "thaw"? Probably. All out prolonged torch? Not seeing it. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Along with an inch+ of rain.

Gotta get the rain to see the rainbow 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Couple of quick comments after looking over the overnight runs.

Run over run the EPS is progressively quicker in ejecting the Southwest energy mid-week. The trough setup/placement for next weekends possible window continues to improve and actually looked pretty decent on the overnight run. Still not seeing it reflected on snowfall maps though as the EPS looks to key on energy earlier in the period before the cold has a chance to move in. This is reflected on precip maps with roughly an inch falling through that period most of it coming earlier in the time period. We are also seeing the cold more progressive in it's movement eastward as well as the cold anomalies coming in extremely stronger from what we were seeing just 2 days ago. 

GEFS continues to see possibilities for next weekend, as well as maybe something through the Mon-Tues time frame as we see a bump up in snow then. Maybe seeing two storms or just confusion on whether to key on earlier energy or later? The cold anomalies continue to strengthen as well. With the limited maps available the GEM also seems to like the weekend as well. At this point if I were to take a flyer on how this possibly plays out next weekend I would probably somewhat favor an initial storm running into the lakes dragging a cold front through our region with a follow up low running up from the south on that cold front. But plenty of time to figure that out.

All I can about the long range (10+ day) is Bah, I'll believe it when I see it. I am already seeing some signs that the warm anomalies will be muted and that this relax in the period will be shorter in duration then the models would like us to think. Let's see what that period of time looks like around day 5. I am thinking it will look substantially different.

 

 

NAVGEM is back to that look it had 12Z Saturday with a low pressure developing in the SE (W SC/W NC) which yielded a SECS. Not a horrible look on the models. We did seem to step away from the decent confluence we had off the SE Canada/NE US Coast which was locking in HP.....now HP is trying to nose back in from the West behind the NS fronta passage. Sort of a complicated setup irt timing and energy, but what else is new in the medium range this season?

[psuhoffman]

9 hours ago, Ji said:

once again trending in the wrong direction

All of our threats have had flaws. No clean good looks. Lots of half chances. Yes the trough axis is ok but no blocking so it's transient and only a 48 hour window.  On top of that the high is again blasting down into the middle of the country not sliding by to our north. Due to that even the runs that do develop something end up keying on the energy along that arctic boundary to our north. Path of least resistance since there is high pressure everywhere south of there. I'm not going to waste too much time on details that will chance. It's close enough to a decent chance to keep an eye on it but it has flaws that could ruin it. 

If we want something to amplify south of us though we need highs to be above us not diving down into Tennessee. 

[psuhoffman]

56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAVGEM is back to that look it had 12Z Saturday with a low pressure developing in the SE (W SC/W NC) which yielded a SECS. Not a horrible look on the models. We did seem to step away from the decent confluence we had off the SE Canada/NE US Coast which was locking in HP.....now HP is trying to nose back in from the West behind the NS fronta passage. Sort of a complicated setup irt timing and energy, but what else is new in the medium range this season?

Ggem was very close to something also. Just missed bringing it all together. It still might have after day 10. But the problem is the way the pattern continues to blast high pressure down the middle of the country it eliminates our "easy path" to victory of something coming at us from the southwest into cold air.  Looking at the overnight runs and we're again needing some big dig of the northern stream and again most guidance has it happening too late for us. Big amp works when there is blocking and we can get it to amplify to our west and be forced under us. Without that it's hard to get it to work. West and we rain. East and...we just did that. Need perfect timing. It's a long shot.

If this general idea does reload following the mjo related relaxation the big edit I would like to see is a broader west to east aligned trough with confluence to the north. Let waves ride southeast to northeast along the boundary. This iteration we have been in since early December blasting highs into the south is no good. Storms either get squashed south and then east or they cut way north. 

[poolz1]

Not a bad look...surface isnt there but looks intriguing.  (The @psuhoffman storm) 

[Climate175]

I don't see any potential out of this.

[RevWarReenactor]

5 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

I don't see any potential out of this.

Can someone explain this setup?

First low cuts so hard its hard to even look that far left on the computer screen. Second low loads, would cold air be able to funnel in?

Seems like unless you live in Montreal Canada, the answer is no.

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Can someone explain this setup?

First low cuts so hard its hard to even look that far left on the computer screen. Second low loads, would cold air be able to funnel in?

Seems like unless you live in Montreal Canada, the answer is no.

It’s the follow up wave or lack there of that’s of interest hence the h5 map for Sunday posted above

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Can someone explain this setup?

First low cuts so hard its hard to even look that far left on the computer screen. Second low loads, would cold air be able to funnel in?

Seems like unless you live in Montreal Canada, the answer is no.

A typical mid atlantic winter model run!

[psuhoffman]

There are two chances at something. One is a follow up wave as the front clears day 7. It's not there but hinted at and h5 supports the idea. The next shot is Day 10 if something can dig enough into the trough. By then the axis is a bit east so again were rooting for a dig and quick amplification. But it's close on the gfs and ggem and it's not starting out as hopelessly east as where it did last time.  And we could still pull off something from the west, a light event, if a sneaky vort dives in even if the main system ends up out to sea. 

[psuhoffman]

It's not without its flaws. Don't love the high position. War isn't ideal. But it may be the best general trough alignment and amplitude we have had so far this winter. 

[Bob Chill]

Gefs throws out a weenie run in the face of the sucky op. Lol. Very active and complicated process happening over the next 10 days. There is no way to know how any of it works out until the fropa is resolved and how the trough aligns behind it. 

[psuhoffman]

One last thing. The cold following the cutter keeps trending deeper and lingering longer. Now it stretches the window from day 7-11 ish. Well into what was supposed  to be the torch a few days ago.  If the torch keeps getting delayed by the time it gets here we may see the other side already. It's also a sign of what the base state wants to be this year. Cold 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs throws out a weenie run in the face of the sucky op. Lol. Very active and complicated process happening over the next 10 days. There is no way to know how any of it works out until the fropa is resolved and how the trough aligns behind it. 

Yep.  The general setup is ok. I wouldn't be any more or less happy if the op either popped that trailing wave or brought that complicated system Day 11 together. It would be gone next run anyways. Too many moving parts to hit this and hold from range. But keep the look similar and then we take our chances once gets closer. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

One last thing. The cold following the cutter keeps trending deeper and lingering longer. Now it stretches the window from day 7-11 ish. Well into what was supposed  to be the torch a few days ago.  If the torch keeps getting delayed by the time it gets here we may see the other side already. It's also a sign of what the base state wants to be this year. Cold 

Gefs very supportive of the drawn out process of the trough carving through and off the coast with mutiple pieces embedded in the flow. Very much an outlier for now but an interesting run nonetheless. 

[psuhoffman]

One of the top analogs now Day 7 is Jan 20 2001. Interestingly that was a 3-9" snow across our area south to north from a trailing wave after a low cut and I remember it didn't pop up on guidance until the last minute. Guidance is better now so perhaps we can expect it to show at 72 hours vs 36 hours but the idea is that's not going to lock in from range.  Same with the complicated setup after. Too many vorts flying around to resolve that from range. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs very supportive of the drawn out process of the trough carving through and off the coast with mutiple pieces embedded in the flow. Very much an outlier for now but an interesting run nonetheless. 

 Ggem has agreed with that evolution for several runs now also.  Dare I say that the ggem gfs combo has been way better with the general pattern lately. No guarantee that continues but the euro has been off on a tangent for a while. 

[87storms]

i have a difficult time believing that in a winter where the potomac is already partially frozen in early january that we all of a sudden flip to spring.  this is probably one of those winters where it's just not smart to look too far ahead without adding a grain of salt.  also, it can snow with temps in the 30s so we don't need arctic level temps.  in fact, that seems to hurt us more than help us it seems.  jan thaws are normal here, so maybe it's just a temporary situation with further chances down the road.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 Ggem has agreed with that evolution for several runs now also.  Dare I say that the ggem gfs combo has been way better with the general pattern lately. No guarantee that continues but the euro has been off on a tangent for a while. 

Right now the euro/eps has practically zero support for any snow event beyond a 1 in 5 chance at a couple inches. Gefs/ggem are extremely bullish in comparison. Gefs has done very well with longwave stuff this winter. Eps has played catchup several times already. I' going back to the gfs/gefs wins the northern stream rule until it fails. I'm not saying I expect snow because of the gefs. Just that the trough/cold period next weekend may last longer than 48-72 hours like the eps currently shows.

[aldie 22]

Some people seem to have made up their minds that we are entering some 20 day warm-up usually what happens now is they point out any little detail or run to support their call over and over and over. I hope they're wrong of course.

[cae]

fwiw, based on verification scores the GFS has had the hot hand with H5 so far in 2018.  In the 6-10 day range, it has even been outperforming the Euro on average. 

[WeathermanB]

Will the east coast go back to the freezer after the 3rd week? I don't expect a snowstorm in Delaware for the next 2 weeks or so based on this mild pattern

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Please. Enlighten me. So the current forecast for a significant warm up from our just above zero temps is not going to happen? 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, cae said:

fwiw, based on verification scores the GFS has had the hot hand with H5 so far in 2018.  In the 6-10 day range, it has even been outperforming the Euro on average. 

Euro is dead to me. Lol

Fwiw,  I agree that there are a few shots on the gfs and gefs worth watching. I was surprised (and disappointed) that the gfs surface maps didn't show more with those shortwaves coming through the trough. 

[Bob Chill]

20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Some people seem to have made up their minds that we are entering some 20 day warm-up usually what happens now is they point out any little detail or run to support their call over and over and over. I hope they're wrong of course.

Anyone looking beyond 15 days is crazy this year. The "warmth" looks pretty legit out there in time but how long it truly lasts (assuming it comes) is impossible to know. My guess is shorter than a week and that's a very loose guess. 

We are entering a different type of weather pattern. One that would be considered completely normal but the perception will be warm biased because we haven't had 50s since before Christmas. We could early touch the 60s for a couple days in the next couple weeks. When don't we have warm days during met winter though?

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, cae said:

fwiw, based on verification scores the GFS has had the hot hand with H5 so far in 2018.  In the 6-10 day range, it has even been outperforming the Euro on average. 

Really? That's honestly not surprising. The Euro has been all over the place as of now. The GEM, dare I say, has been pretty good too.

[Vice-Regent]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Anyone looking beyond 15 days is crazy this year. The "warmth" looks pretty legit out there in time but how long it truly lasts (assuming it comes) is impossible to know. My guess is shorter than a week and that's a very loose guess. 

We are entering a different type of weather pattern. One that would be considered completely normal but the perception will be warm biased because we haven't had 50s since before Christmas. We could early touch the 60s for a couple days in the next couple weeks. When don't we have warm days during met winter though?

It's been so long now that it seems like the normal but back in the 1970s and 1980s it never happened altho those two decades were quite a bit colder than the 50s and early 60s.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Anyone looking beyond 15 days is crazy this year. The "warmth" looks pretty legit out there in time but how long it truly lasts (assuming it comes) is impossible to know. My guess is shorter than a week and that's a very loose guess. 

We are entering a different type of weather pattern. One that would be considered completely normal but the perception will be warm biased because we haven't had 50s since before Christmas. We could early touch the 60s for a couple days in the next couple weeks. When don't we have warm days during met winter though?

Normal temps will seem warm.  Lol

I agree that what is being modeled is different.  I'm glad to see that. We need something different if we have a reasonable shot at a moderate event imho. If we have to have a thaw for that to happen,  count me in. If we can do it without a thaw, that's even better. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said:

It's been so long now that it seems like the normal but back in the 1970s and 1980s it never happened altho those two decades were quite a bit colder than the 50s and early 60s.

Bologna dude. We had plenty of warm and snowless periods in the 70s and 80s. Stop posting BS. It may be more common the last 20 years but saying the 70s and 80s were wall to wall cold is a steaming pile of crap.