January Mid-Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

Hey @psuhoffman check out the 18z gefs after the front clears next weekend. A number of members have a following wave. Different timing but it does look like another shot at something while the trough progreses through thr region. 

[Lowershoresadness]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Hey @psuhoffman check out the 18z gefs after the front clears next weekend. A number of members have a following wave. Different timing but it does look like another shot at something while the trough progreses through thr region. 

Bob do you prefer a long track snow storm that verifies or a surprise storm that shows up a few days before and verifies?

[Bob Chill]

20 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

Bob do you prefer a long track snow storm that verifies or a surprise storm that shows up a few days before and verifies?

Long track on a specific discrete event is really rare but I love those when they present themselves. Otherwise I very much enjoy identifying windows or good general setups at long leads and seeing if something discrete presents itself in the med range. Often times when we see something way out in time (like 8+ days) it takes on many faces before the soltuion becomes clear. That's not the same as a long track (like Jan 2016). 

Conversely, I love a short range surprise. The Dec 9th event was one of those. It's fun when something just sorta pops us when nobody is looking. 

I don't really have a preference between the 2 becuase I just like snow. The one thing that sucks about long tracking is that it usually means there is nothing to discuss in the med or short range. Lol. The ultimate scenario is when there is an imminent short range threat, something interesting in the med range, and the long range looks ripe. That's why 13-14 will always be my favorite winter. It was off the rails from a hobbiest perspective. 09-10 was mind blowing from a big storm perspective but there was a lot of dead space in between them.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Hey @psuhoffman check out the 18z gefs after the front clears next weekend. A number of members have a following wave. Different timing but it does look like another shot at something while the trough progreses through thr region. 

Almost as if we've been doing this a while and seen that before... In seriousness I said something because it wasn't just one run. I've noticed the general look a few times on other gfs  and ggem runs recently. Enough that I was a little surprised an odd run or two didn't try to pop a storm there. But it's long lead and it would be a pretty harmless vort until it rounds the base and suddenly it's amplifying along the tightening thermal boundary and something's there. Im not surprised the ensembles started to hint at the possibility.  It's a long shot but it's something to keep an eye on that's all. 

[MountainGeek]

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's why 13-14 will always be my favorite winter. It was off the rails from a hobbiest perspective. 09-10 was mind blowing from a big storm perspective but there was a lot of dead space in between them.

13-14 was my favorite winter so far as well....and it probably happened because it was the ONE winter I REALLY didn't want snow and needed warmer weather...LOL. 

Anyone got a good source for the stats on snow events for 13-14? Trying to remember when that one actually got going, IIRC Dec wasn't all that great, but then we had several inches of snow the first week of April.

[osfan24]

27 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

13-14 was my favorite winter so far as well....and it probably happened because it was the ONE winter I REALLY didn't want snow and needed warmer weather...LOL. 

Anyone got a good source for the stats on snow events for 13-14? Trying to remember when that one actually got going, IIRC Dec wasn't all that great, but then we had several inches of snow the first week of April.

2009-2010 is pretty much impossible to defeat and will probably always be No. 1, but 2013-2014 is definitely in the mix. Just wall-to-wall winter with cold and constant hits coming through. Honorable mention to 95-96 simply for the one great week. 2015-2016 was good looking back retroactively. A lot of warmth and then one epic snowstorm. If I'm not getting record cold for long periods to freeze up everything or constant snow events, I'd rather just have nice weather surrounded by a ridiculous HECS. The tracking zeroing in on that a week out and never budging made it that much better.

[Climate175]

I honestly hope February does provide a decent storm this year.

[WVclimo]

37 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

13-14 was my favorite winter so far as well....and it probably happened because it was the ONE winter I REALLY didn't want snow and needed warmer weather...LOL. 

Anyone got a good source for the stats on snow events for 13-14? Trying to remember when that one actually got going, IIRC Dec wasn't all that great, but then we had several inches of snow the first week of April.

It was wall-to-wall here.  This is what I measured in Falling Waters:

Dec 8-9: 8.5"

Dec 14-15: 3.1"

Dec 17:  0.5"

Jan 2: 3.1"

Jan 17: 1.0"

Jan 21: 7.0"

Jan 25: 0.2"

Feb 2-4: 4.0"

Feb 9: 1.5"

Feb 12-13: 13.5"

Feb 15-17: 2.3"

Mar 2-3: 2.0"

Mar 16: 3.5"

Mar 26-27: 2.1"

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill

i love the challenge of picking out chances at range then tracking them in. But my god sometimes it's not worth the stress and distraction. 2016 was fun but by the time it got here I was exhausted and emotionaly drained. Yes that makes me crazy but I'm just being honest about it. Sometimes something coming on the radar with just enough time to track without getting worn out is better. Say 72 hours. 

I also wonder if I wouldn't be better off if I didn't know. Obviously I'm obsessed so it's not an option but it's gonna snow or not and I can't change it by staying up to watch model runs. I've gotten better at just going to sleep when I'm tired and looking in the morning but I still waste way too much time. 

And the only reason I can pick up some things every once in a while is not some natural instinct or skill and I'm not smarter I just wasted a huge amount of time looking at analogs of every storm type and reading meteorology books. Yea having some formal background in met helped but almost everything I know that helps identify snow patterns is from wasting countless hours doing research. Given how much time I've wasted I should know more probably.  I can't help it, I have a burning desire to understand it and track but I'm not sure I'm actually happier for it.  I can't change it just wonder sometimes if I'm not torturing myself.  Being an Eagles fan I should be used to that  

 

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill

i love the challenge of picking out chances at range then tracking them in. But my god sometimes it's not worth the stress and distraction. 2016 was fun but by the time it got here I was exhausted and emotionaly drained. Yes that makes me crazy but I'm just being honest about it. Sometimes something coming on the radar with just enough time to track without getting worn out is better. Say 72 hours. 

I also wonder if I wouldn't be better off if I didn't know. Obviously I'm obsessed so it's not an option but it's gonna snow or not and I can't change it by staying up to watch model runs. I've gotten better at just going to sleep when I'm tired and looking in the morning but I still waste way too much time. 

And the only reason I can pick up some things every once in a while is not some natural instinct or skill and I'm not smarter I just wasted a huge amount of time looking at analogs of every storm type and reading meteorology books. Yea having some formal background in met helped but almost everything I know that helps identify snow patterns is from wasting countless hours doing research. Given how much time I've wasted I should know more probably.  I can't help it, I have a burning desire to understand it and track but I'm not sure I'm actually happier for it.  I can't change it just wonder sometimes if I'm not torturing myself.  Being an Eagles fan I should be used to that  

 

Oh I totally agree about the mental exhaustion. I was physically and emotionally drained from the 16 blizzard because it was seven days of analyzing every run and just hoping the rug wouldn't suddenly get pulled out. I was really happy about the storm obviously, but I felt exhausted when it was over and almost relieved. Things suddenly blowing up a few days out would at least reduce some of the stress of tracking something for so long. I've definitely done a better job of just saying screw the late night runs, especially the Euro, and waking up the next morning to check and see what happened.

[coh]

58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill

i love the challenge of picking out chances at range then tracking them in. But my god sometimes it's not worth the stress and distraction. 2016 was fun but by the time it got here I was exhausted and emotionaly drained. Yes that makes me crazy but I'm just being honest about it. Sometimes something coming on the radar with just enough time to track without getting worn out is better. Say 72 hours. 

I also wonder if I wouldn't be better off if I didn't know. Obviously I'm obsessed so it's not an option but it's gonna snow or not and I can't change it by staying up to watch model runs. I've gotten better at just going to sleep when I'm tired and looking in the morning but I still waste way too much time. 

And the only reason I can pick up some things every once in a while is not some natural instinct or skill and I'm not smarter I just wasted a huge amount of time looking at analogs of every storm type and reading meteorology books. Yea having some formal background in met helped but almost everything I know that helps identify snow patterns is from wasting countless hours doing research. Given how much time I've wasted I should know more probably.  I can't help it, I have a burning desire to understand it and track but I'm not sure I'm actually happier for it.  I can't change it just wonder sometimes if I'm not torturing myself.  Being an Eagles fan I should be used to that  

 

I don't usually post in this forum as I live near Rochester NY, but I have enjoyed reading your comments the past year or two. I figured you must have some meteorological background but it sounds like you don't work in the field?

I grew up on Long Island but spent 10 years in the mid Atlantic (5 in Maryland, 5 in Virginia near Richmond) so I always keep tabs on what is going on down there. I really liked the Virginia climate - I'm more of a summer person but jobs brought us back up here. Definitely going to be heading somewhere warmer when the chance arises.

Keep posting!

Chris

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, coh said:

I don't usually post in this forum as I live near Rochester NY, but I have enjoyed reading your comments the past year or two. I figured you must have some meteorological background but it sounds like you don't work in the field?

I grew up on Long Island but spent 10 years in the mid Atlantic (5 in Maryland, 5 in Virginia near Richmond) so I always keep tabs on what is going on down there. I really liked the Virginia climate - I'm more of a summer person but jobs brought us back up here. Definitely going to be heading somewhere warmer when the chance arises.

Keep posting!

Chris

Thank you. I was a meteorology major for 3 years at Penn State. In the end I switched to sociology then later got a masters in social studies education and went into teaching political science, economics, and coaching policy debate. Believe it or not I'm just as into politics, civil rights, and social activism as I am weather. I don't regret it. Weather is a great hobby but I'm passionate about teaching and politics too. 

[MountainGeek]

54 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

It was wall-to-wall here.  This is what I measured in Falling Waters:

 

Thanks for the info -- good stuff.

I guess I'm not correctly remembering there was some snow April 2014 as well....I really seem to remember getting a few inches in April one year.  

Also that summer of 2014 was something else, I remember we had a lot of abnormally cool days (even some upper 50s/low 60s in June/July/August).

[MountainGeek]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill

i love the challenge of picking out chances at range then tracking them in. But my god sometimes it's not worth the stress and distraction. 2016 was fun but by the time it got here I was exhausted and emotionaly drained. Yes that makes me crazy but I'm just being honest about it. Sometimes something coming on the radar with just enough time to track without getting worn out is better. Say 72 hours. 

I also wonder if I wouldn't be better off if I didn't know. Obviously I'm obsessed so it's not an option but it's gonna snow or not and I can't change it by staying up to watch model runs. I've gotten better at just going to sleep when I'm tired and looking in the morning but I still waste way too much time. 

 

You're cracking me up over here......but yeah, for my own personal sanity I've often wished for STRICTLY moderated sub-120 or sub-74 hrs threads so I just didn't have to know until something was close enough to have a decent chance. Even recently that would have avoided the rug getting pulled out on the epic 60-hr overrunning fantasy.

And then, after the sting fades from each fail, I can't help myself parsing the LR threads again.....we need a support group.  

[Jebman]

5 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

You're cracking me up over here......but yeah, for my own personal sanity I've often wished for STRICTLY moderated sub-120 or sub-74 hrs threads so I just didn't have to know until something was close enough to have a decent chance. Even recently that would have avoided the rug getting pulled out on the epic 60-hr overrunning fantasy.

And then, after the sting fades from each fail, I can't help myself parsing the LR threads again.....we need a support group.  

Following the models and chasing snow is in your blood. We'll spend as much time as it takes to get snow. And, we WILL get snow!!

Enjoyed yet another shweet refreshing jebwalk tonight in 10 degree, -7 dewpoint conditions with a cool northerly breeze at 14 mph.

[Cobalt]

16 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Thanks for the info -- good stuff.

I guess I'm not correctly remembering there was some snow April 2014 as well....I really seem to remember getting a few inches in April one year.  

Also that summer of 2014 was something else, I remember we had a lot of abnormally cool days (even some upper 50s/low 60s in June/July/August).

IIRC, the entire year of 2014 was pretty cold altogether. Had a lot of rainy months too. 

[yoda]

OP GFS wants nothing to do with the follow up wave after the first low goes by next weekend... h5 looked okay I guess 

[BristowWx]

Just now, yoda said:

OP GFS wants nothing to do with the follow up wave after the first low goes by next weekend... h5 looked okay I guess 

Looked bette than 18z.  Still a little time to get better.

[Ji]

once again trending in the wrong direction

[87storms]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill

i love the challenge of picking out chances at range then tracking them in. But my god sometimes it's not worth the stress and distraction. 2016 was fun but by the time it got here I was exhausted and emotionaly drained. Yes that makes me crazy but I'm just being honest about it. Sometimes something coming on the radar with just enough time to track without getting worn out is better. Say 72 hours. 

I also wonder if I wouldn't be better off if I didn't know. Obviously I'm obsessed so it's not an option but it's gonna snow or not and I can't change it by staying up to watch model runs. I've gotten better at just going to sleep when I'm tired and looking in the morning but I still waste way too much time. 

And the only reason I can pick up some things every once in a while is not some natural instinct or skill and I'm not smarter I just wasted a huge amount of time looking at analogs of every storm type and reading meteorology books. Yea having some formal background in met helped but almost everything I know that helps identify snow patterns is from wasting countless hours doing research. Given how much time I've wasted I should know more probably.  I can't help it, I have a burning desire to understand it and track but I'm not sure I'm actually happier for it.  I can't change it just wonder sometimes if I'm not torturing myself.  Being an Eagles fan I should be used to that  

 

it's not a waste of time. it's good to have analytical hobbies. it can be applied outside of tracking storms...not much different than playing chess, cooking, bird watching, whatever. the difference is that it comes in waves (lots of time spent when there's a storm to track versus in between storms), so it probably just comes down to time management lol.  

[MountainGeek]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Panic Room doesn't work for you?  

NEVER! You shall NEVER have the pleasure of reaping me.....I survived last year without even the slightest thought of jumping (non-suicidal smashing of the forehead into a wall doesn't count). Even if we hadn't had the March 13 PSU storm to save us from epic futility and total despair, I would have remained strong to the end!

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, MountainGeek said:

NEVER! You shall NEVER have the pleasure of reaping me.....I survived last year without even the slightest thought of jumping (non-suicidal smashing of the forehead into a wall doesn't count). Even if we hadn't had the March 13 PSU storm to save us from epic futility and total despair, I would have remained strong to the end!

This so-called "reaper" will freeze to death in our Cold Winter, he will be discovered frozen in the snow, he will end up with far more frostbite than even Beck Weathers. He will barely manage a few meager morsels all winter. The Mid Atlantic WILL have lots of snow and definitely lots of cold to go with it. We need to set up a panic room for the "reaper" for when HE panics! LMAO

[showmethesnow]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Panic Room doesn't work for you?  

Seriously though, I have to say I've changed a lot since moving here. I don't track winter wx nearly as much as I used to. Part of it is I have nothing meaningful to add when you have folks like Wes, Bob, PSU, Showme, Mitch and others saying it all. The other part is the exhaustion. A lot of what it takes for us to get snow here (in the metros especially) is luck. Most things fail. Doing that over and over again, tracking from like day 10 to the time it falls apart takes a lot out of you. 

I say all that knowing full well that I'm a tropical guy lol. At least I have my SE ridges and torches to track during the summer. 

You talk about how exhausting  and the amount of luck involved in tracking winter storms and yet you track tropical? You are an enigma my friend. The Mid-Atlantic is the dog under the dinner table of starving vegans when it comes to tropical. We are very lucky just to score a piece of broccoli on that rare occasion let alone a piece of juicy steak.  And when we do get steak served up it is normally a gristly fatty piece that isn't even fit for the dog to eat. Nah, I will take tracking snow over tropical any day of the week. 

[mitchnick]

January thaw to begin. I'm sure this will get much warmer looking in the days to come since this only goes out 10 days. Probably better it starts closer to the beginning of January than middle or end.

https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif

[showmethesnow]

Couple of quick comments after looking over the overnight runs.

Run over run the EPS is progressively quicker in ejecting the Southwest energy mid-week. The trough setup/placement for next weekends possible window continues to improve and actually looked pretty decent on the overnight run. Still not seeing it reflected on snowfall maps though as the EPS looks to key on energy earlier in the period before the cold has a chance to move in. This is reflected on precip maps with roughly an inch falling through that period most of it coming earlier in the time period. We are also seeing the cold more progressive in it's movement eastward as well as the cold anomalies coming in extremely stronger from what we were seeing just 2 days ago. 

GEFS continues to see possibilities for next weekend, as well as maybe something through the Mon-Tues time frame as we see a bump up in snow then. Maybe seeing two storms or just confusion on whether to key on earlier energy or later? The cold anomalies continue to strengthen as well. With the limited maps available the GEM also seems to like the weekend as well. At this point if I were to take a flyer on how this possibly plays out next weekend I would probably somewhat favor an initial storm running into the lakes dragging a cold front through our region with a follow up low running up from the south on that cold front. But plenty of time to figure that out.

All I can about the long range (10+ day) is Bah, I'll believe it when I see it. I am already seeing some signs that the warm anomalies will be muted and that this relax in the period will be shorter in duration then the models would like us to think. Let's see what that period of time looks like around day 5. I am thinking it will look substantially different.

 

 

[poolz1]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Couple of quick comments after looking over the overnight runs.

Run over run the EPS is progressively quicker in ejecting the Southwest energy mid-week. The trough setup/placement for next weekends possible window continues to improve and actually looked pretty decent on the overnight run. Still not seeing it reflected on snowfall maps though as the EPS looks to key on energy earlier in the period before the cold has a chance to move in. This is reflected on precip maps with roughly an inch falling through that period most of it coming earlier in the time period. We are also seeing the cold more progressive in it's movement eastward as well as the cold anomalies coming in extremely stronger from what we were seeing just 2 days ago. 

GEFS continues to see possibilities for next weekend, as well as maybe something through the Mon-Tues time frame as we see a bump up in snow then. Maybe seeing two storms or just confusion on whether to key on earlier energy or later? The cold anomalies continue to strengthen as well. With the limited maps available the GEM also seems to like the weekend as well. At this point if I were to take a flyer on how this possibly plays out next weekend I would probably somewhat favor an initial storm running into the lakes dragging a cold front through our region with a follow up low running up from the south on that cold front. But plenty of time to figure that out.

All I can about the long range (10+ day) is Bah, I'll believe it when I see it. I am already seeing some signs that the warm anomalies will be muted and that this relax in the period will be shorter in duration then the models would like us to think. Let's see what that period of time looks like around day 5. I am thinking it will look substantially different.

 

 

Man, I hope you are right...Looks like a beast of a NPAC ridge in the means on all models..could be wrong of course but usually they pick up on large features pretty well.  On the flipside though, late in the runs both GEFS and EPS seem to be hinting at a trough in Japan and Europe. Maybe we are already seeing what will eventually be the end of the warm spell?  BTW, really enjoy reading your thoughts...its nice having and educated voice of optimism on here.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

January thaw to begin. I'm sure this will get much warmer looking in the days to come since this only goes out 10 days. Probably better it starts closer to the beginning of January than middle or end.

https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif

Yeah we are going to thaw this week, maybe with a decent amount of rain with the much warmer temps. Frozen tundra and melting snow to mud. I am a bit skeptical atm of any frozen precip potential for late next weekend into early the following week, but plenty of time for that to sort itself out. Either way looking at the ensembles, the thaw looks to continue in earnest for a time beyond that. With the warmth will surely come the wet, so for areas in our region in a drought, theres that.

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah we are going to thaw this week, maybe with a decent amount of rain with the much warmer temps. Frozen tundra and melting snow to mud. I am a bit skeptical atm of any frozen precip potential for late next weekend into early the following week, but plenty of time for that to sort itself out. Either way looking at the ensembles, the thaw looks to continue in earnest for a time beyond that. With the warmth will surely come the wet, so for areas in our region in a drought, theres that.

It's going to be real hard for January not to come in below normal on temps. There have been some incredible negative departures locally with Bwi at -17.2 and Dca at -16.4 thru yesterday.  Today should be another -16 to -20 at both airports as well. But without decent snowfall,  meh. If we don't score in the next 8-9 days, and I tend to agree with you that chances look underwhelming at this time,  the period will simply mark another way we've found to fail with snowfall in the DCA / BWI corridor. I guess the good news is that we're running out of different ways for that! Lol

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Man, I hope you are right...Looks like a beast of a NPAC ridge in the means on all models..could be wrong of course but usually they pick up on large features pretty well.  On the flipside though, late in the runs both GEFS and EPS seem to be hinting at a trough in Japan and Europe. Maybe we are already seeing what will eventually be the end of the warm spell?  BTW, really enjoy reading your thoughts...its nice having and educated voice of optimism on here.

Thanks.

Try to stay optimistic because there are so many negative nannies in these threads.  Can't say that I blame them though. Mid-Atlantic and snow are like trying to mix oil and water.

I could very well be wrong when it comes to the extended. It could be long and horrible and fill the Reaper's panic room to overflowing. But I see quite a bit that argues against this in my mind and believe that any relax will be muted and transitory in nature as the key features we have dealt with all winter long should reassert themselves. I guess we just wait and see.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Call me the optimist but looking at the Gefs I only see 2 warm days thru day 10...Thurs/Fri  ..cold before and cold enough after to be in the game  .I'm not going to dare look past that.  As far as threats ...inside 96 hours I start intently tracking . 

Along with an inch+ of rain.