Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 So the 0z gefs basically dropped the coastal idea except for out to sea and almost unanimous support for the op. If the euro and eps hold similar to 12z then it would be a huge model war at 4-5 day leads. One is going to lose badly if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 00Z UKMET definitely an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 ICON and GGEM both develop the coastal now and give eastern NC more snow than they were before. The ICON still has the overrunning for our area, and the GGEM took a small step in that direction but still gives us very little. There are still a lot of ways to get snow from this system, and I think that's what the EPS is showing us. The problem with the GEFS these days is that even if there were a lot of ways to get snow, they might not show up in the ensemble. I'm a little more concerned about the GEPS. There's usually better spread in the GEPS, but they haven't looked good for our region in recent runs. I think light overrunning in our area and a near miss with a coastal is probably the most likely outcome, but of course a lot can change in the next four days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Snowdude, anything for us on the hr114 panel or is it all east? Either way the ukie moved towards a 1-3" overunning deal. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Euro and gfs a good bit different @ h5 by hr96. Euro looks much more like the ukie than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: How quickly you went from an upside event to accepting another trace event. Maybe we both need to move Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Are the Real housewives of Loudoun getting restless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro and gfs a good bit different @ h5 by hr96. Euro looks much more like the ukie than the gfs. Rather you said it looks like the last euro lol. I'm somewhere between you and JI. Ill accept 1-3" but I'm rooting for the coastal. If I get 2"'fine and I'll take it and won't turn it away but I'm not excited for it and not going to waste 5 days tracking it. If it becomes apparent the bigger option is gone I'll probably just come back to it when it's inside 36 hours. Something with legit upside is worth the time tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, cae said: ICON and GGEM both develop the coastal now and give eastern NC more snow than they were before. The ICON still has the overrunning for our area, and the GGEM took a small step in that direction but still gives us very little. There are still a lot of ways to get snow from this system, and I think that's what the EPS is showing us. The problem with the GEFS these days is that even if there were a lot of ways to get snow, they might not show up in the ensemble. I'm a little more concerned about the GEPS. There's usually better spread in the GEPS, but they haven't looked good for our region in recent runs. I think light overrunning in our area and a near miss with a coastal is probably the most likely outcome, but of course a lot can change in the next four days. Would that "near miss" be too far south, or? (apologies, haven't been following much today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Would that "near miss" be too far south, or? (apologies, haven't been following much today) East, but possibly south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 It's a weaker version of 12z. Not as good with the coastal but still 3-5" everywhere and a central va bullseye of 6+. Great run even if weaker. Same slow squeeze and decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 From what I can tell on weather.us, Euro looks more similar to last night's 00z than today's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 H5 still closes off but not nearly as sweet at 12z. Still much different than the gfs. Not even close. It's a war at d4 leads. Storm is east of 12z but it still tracks right into ME. This is the euro's shot at redemption or more evidence that the upgrade sucks for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Kuchera is widespread 5-7" from the bay all the way to winchester. If Ji complains about this run I may have to out him on ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 @cae Was gonna say that. Looks a lot similar. Curios what the EPS says, and more so what the next 2 GFS say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: @cae Was gonna say that. Looks a lot similar. Curios what the EPS says, and more so what the next 2 GFS say Gfs definitely seems to be the jumpy global with this one so far. Similar to the way the euro was with the Jan 4-5 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Kuchera is widespread 5-7" from the bay all the way to winchester. If Ji complains about this run I may have to out him on ignore. This could have just been noise from the last run. EPS will be telling if euro is starting a trend towards the less amped gfs (everything else really) camp or if this run was just part of minor fluctuations the last 3 runs. It's pretty identical to last nights run. Navgem might be the most impressive of the non euro runs tonight but the ggem and U.K. At least moved in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Kuchera is widespread 5-7" from the bay all the way to winchester. If Ji complains about this run I may have to out him on ignore. Can you post that map please. ( Panasonic) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This could have just been noise from the last run. EPS will be telling if euro is starting a trend towards the less amped gfs (everything else really) camp or if this run was just part of minor fluctuations the last 3 runs. It's pretty identical to last nights run. Navgem might be the most impressive of the non euro runs tonight but the ggem and U.K. At least moved in the right direction. Yeah, definitely encouraging to see ggem, icon, and navgem start to pop something off the coast tonight when before they hardly had anything. Seems a little suspect that the gfs almost dropped the idea completely with the euro still showing a half decent hit. Euro and navgem on board. We got 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: H5 still closes off but not nearly as sweet at 12z. Still much different than the gfs. Not even close. It's a war at d4 leads. Storm is east of 12z but it still tracks right into ME. This is the euro's shot at redemption or more evidence that the upgrade sucks for our area. Euro has trolled us but it never held a snowy solution 3 straight runs this close in yet this year so this is a new war here. I'm not saying it's right just this isn't the typical one run tease it's been doing. That said the changes on the gfs were not to my liking. It took a bad step at h5 away from cutting off to our south. Hard to use the gefs to judge its significance given their follow the leader mentality at this range. But things are still close enough with enough lead time left it still has my interest. But i would like to see one other global trend towards a hit tomorrow. Doesn't have to be a hit verbatim but trend towards one and get close. Probably won't be the gfs. Right or wrong it's stubborn when it does this. It's either right or it goes down with the ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 It seems like the over running is our most likely option....Any chance this trends wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Yeah, definitely encouraging to see ggem, icon, and navgem start to pop something off the coast tonight when before they hardly had anything. Seems a little suspect that the gfs almost dropped the idea completely with the euro still showing a half decent hit. Euro and navgem on board. We got 2. The guidance is having a hell of a time. I'm noticing their moving some of the ancilary pieces around hundreds of miles run to run. Vorts and that kicker are way off each run. Our system is mostly dependent on the trough alignment and depth and that's a larger feature so models aren't as jumpy with it but still their really having an issue right now at range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Panasonic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Panasonic We take and run with it Here's to hoping that the Euro is back to it's kingly ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The last 2 0z euro runs are very similar and the one in between had the upside. Euro is pretty good with h5 from d4 in so I'd be lying if I wasn't biting a little. The euro is a continous event but it's 2 separate synoptic pieces. The first one would still be a 1-3" deal even if the coastal kicks east. We obviously need the coastal to get a warning level event but a total shutout keeps getting less likely. Not a bad place to be with pretty good chances at a couple inches and close to warning level stuff. I won't be disappointed we get 1-3. This isn't a winter for that type of stuff. Every inch is going to be a fight. If I lived on the eastern shore were I've already had 12"+ I might think different. My 4.5" total that took 3 events to get is pretty sad. That and I need to crack 6" to beat last year...talk about sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I wish the NAVGEM wasn't so terrible to find correct hours for the system to affect our region on TT, but the h5 maps from the 00z run at 120 and 126 looked very much like what the 12z Euro had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 55 minutes ago, yoda said: I wish the NAVGEM wasn't so terrible to find correct hours for the system to affect our region on TT, but the h5 maps from the 00z run at 120 and 126 looked very much like what the 12z Euro had We get a light event from the front but the coastal develops too far off the coast but then hooks in and clobbers New England. It looks like what i suspect HM was thinking. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Check out this stream of warm centered anomalies in the Pacific It will be really hard to do pure +PNA this Winter.. our best chance is -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I wonder if the record +AMO/Gulf stream leads to ridging for southern Greenland and New Foundland going into February. (not natural). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Good morning all. 6z GFS gives us a little love Wednesday. I’ll stick with what the Euro has been selling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Overnight EPS took a small step back from the 12Z run for the possible coastal (Wed/Thur). Now the question is, is this a trend or possibly something else? I have noticed over the years that the models tend to mirror their previous hour runs (current 00z to prior 00z, current 12z to prior 12z, etc...) with some of the very minor details that can have an impact on sensible weather for our region. Have a theory on that but won't bore you with the details. So what we may have seen with the overnight run is a hangover from the previous nights run, where one or two small minute details that the 12z runs have different, is impacting the overall forecast. So in a nutshell, let's see how todays 12Z run stacks up against yesterdays 12Z before we start jumping to conclusions. If it holds par to its prior 12Z run then we are still very much in the game otherwise we are probably seeing a trend that will take the coastal off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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