Amped Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Not a very cutoff friendly look to the northern stream, anything that forms will quickly get tugged away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 It's the best gfs run for your yard yet. Lol. The Euro is garbage. This is not how I do snow lol Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's the best gfs run for your yard yet. Lol. Provided the front is solid. Mountains could chew that up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Amped said: Not a very cutoff friendly look to the northern stream, anything that forms will quickly get tugged away. Yeah, that NS feature as depicted on the gfs this run would kick any coastal ots anyway imo. Was much further north at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's the best gfs run for your yard yet. Lol. Nickles and dimes baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Can't say this isn't usually what happens too cutoffs in January, but my eyes still hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Nickles and dimes baby. If we lock into a 1-4" region wide event with no temp issues then it's a major win. We all conceded we were done for possibly the rest of the month just a short time ago. And now we have a snow event in the med range that works and not some skipover northern stream disaster like it first presented itself. If that is reason to melt down them folks need to seriously consider giving up on the entire hobby permanently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If we lock into a 1-4" region wide event with no temp issues then it's a major win. We all conceded we were done for possibly the rest of the month just a short time ago. And now we have a snow event in the med range that works and not some skipover northern stream disaster like it first presented itself. If that is reason to melt down them folks need to seriously consider giving up on the entire hobby permanently. We are not that far from an event day7 from the next shortwave, there is now a 50/50 low from the NS system. and if the cold can hold on a bit longer as it has been trending, something interesting could come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 If we lock into a 1-4" region wide event with no temp issues then it's a major win. We all conceded we were done for possibly the rest of the month just a short time ago. And now we have a snow event in the med range that works and not some skipover northern stream disaster like it first presented itself. If that is reason to melt down them folks need to seriously consider giving up on the entire hobby permanently. How quickly you went from an upside event to accepting another trace event. Maybe we both need to move Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If we lock into a 1-4" region wide event with no temp issues then it's a major win. We all conceded we were done for possibly the rest of the month just a short time ago. And now we have a snow event in the med range that works and not some skipover northern stream disaster like it first presented itself. If that is reason to melt down them folks need to seriously consider giving up on the entire hobby permanently. The front has juiced up the last few runs.if that trend continues we can get a region wide 2 to 4.huge win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If we lock into a 1-4" region wide event with no temp issues then it's a major win. We all conceded we were done for possibly the rest of the month just a short time ago. And now we have a snow event in the med range that works and not some skipover northern stream disaster like it first presented itself. If that is reason to melt down them folks need to seriously consider giving up on the entire hobby permanently. Mosesji leading his people over the ledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: The front has juiced up the last few runs.if that trend continues we can get a region wide 2 to 4.huge win Keeps going up. 2-4 from a slow moving front? Sorry but I don’t see that occurrence unless it stalls. My opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Keeps going up. 2-4 from a slow moving front? Sorry but I don’t see that occurrence unless it stalls. My opinion. It's called overrunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ji said: How quickly you went from an upside event to accepting another trace event. Maybe we both need to move Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I don't think you read what I say. There's still upside. One gfs run d4+ doesn't decide our fate. Heck, the gfs often can't do it under 72 hours. The coastal is touchy. We all know that and it can still happen. The gfs slowed the front *again*. What if it slows even more and taps a little more juice? What if a weak wave gets embedded in sw flow? Would you be good with 5"? Becuase even that can happen with no coastal. I like seeing snow fall. It's my favorite part of every event. Even 1" on cold ground looks pretty nice. I mean yea, I want 50 feet to fall but some snow is ALWAYS better than no snow. I get plenty of no snow so some snow is always a treat and not a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 II'd love a 1-4 inch overrunning event. Are you kidding me? Who wouldn't? This would be our chance to "luck" into something when everything else looked bleak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: It's called overrunning Exaclty. It happens a lot over time. It happened in 2014 several times. This isn't some dry fast moving front either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Why can't this drop 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: How quickly you went from an upside event to accepting another trace event. Maybe we both need to move Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk You're acting like that Bill Wolfe guy on your FB lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Exaclty. It happens a lot over time. It happened in 2014 several times. This isn't some dry fast moving front either. I think one of those dropped 6-10? Maybe I’m wrong though. edit: 2015?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, T. August said: I think one of those dropped 6-10? Maybe I’m wrong though. Those require a wave of low pressure and a good vort pass. We had some snow events that striped us on SW flow. I like these kinds of events because you can watch radar and see snow stream up from TN. Unlike other events where you have to wait for development and things blossom overhead. Those events get on my nerves. Not because of lack of snow but becuase I have to weed through countless "radar looks terrible" posts becuase people don't understand how the atmosphere works. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 i remember asking a met professor at umd (when i was looking at their grad program) and we were talking about the best way to get snowstorms here. i had said nor'easters (i had no idea what i was talking about) and he plainly said it's usually from overrunning. maybe he was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 I remember an event in the early 2,000s. A band of snow from a slow moving front. I was working in Taneytown at the time. Snowed all day. Ended up with 3 to 5 inches. If I remember correctly it was an over performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The UKMET may have something based on surface and 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: i remember asking a met professor at umd (when i was looking at their grad program) and we were talking about the best way to get snowstorms here. i had said nor'easters (i had no idea what i was talking about) and he plainly said it's usually from overrunning. maybe he was right. It's an easy way at least. Normally only happens with blocked flow aligned wsw-ene. Progressive flow with no blocking is too fast and usually too amplified. Stripes are narrow. Good overunning events happen best when things are slowed down. The upcoming setup is ok but not great. Would like to see something develop on the tail in TX or the deep south and make a run at us but the shortwave isn't digging far enough. Models are still figuring it all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I remember an event in the early 2,000s. A band of snow from a slow moving front. I was working in Taneytown at the time. Snowed all day. Ended up with 3 to 5 inches. If I remember correctly it was an over performer. December 19th 2000 may be what you're thinking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's an easy way at least. Normally only happens with blocked flow aligned wsw-ene. Progressive flow with no blocking is too fast and usually too amplified. Stripes are narrow. Good overunning events happen best when things are slowed down. The upcoming setup is ok but not great. Would like to see something develop on the tail in TX or the deep south and make a run at us but the shortwave isn't digging far enough. Models are still figuring it all out. I’m just glad we’re tracking. 5 days ago we were worried about a shutout pattern for this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET may have something based on surface and 500 Yea it might.... Trough swings through and goes negative. Would think there's a band of overrunning as it swings through. Don't think a coastal would form in time but could be a half decent event. 24 hour gaps leave us guessing with all the important stuff. Lol. Closed off but north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: December 19th 2000 may be what you're thinking of. Yes. I believe that was it. I think they were calling for a couple inches but the band of snow didn't move much and got several hours of moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: Yes. I believe that was it. I think they were calling for a couple inches but the band of snow didn't move much and got several hours of moderate snow. Picked up close to 4 inches in reisterstown. Started snowing around 8 a.m. and ended in the evening. Forecast was for 1-2. Nice overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ukie and Gfs h5 difference. Ukie definitely more Euroish with the much less broad trough . Ukmet looks Euro like with the sharp trough. Hopefully that's a good sign that the Euro will hold serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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