EastCoast NPZ Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: JB is on board https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/951977670337843200 I'm trying to recall a storm threat where he wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Root for a thaw? im ready for a 2 week torch that lifts in time for PD3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: JB is on board https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/951977670337843200 He was on board at this point for last week. I'll be happy with 2" out of this. Anything more is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I'm trying to recall a storm threat where he wasn't. when the GGEM showed a DC blizzard in early June of 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 so overall, today has been a disaster. Yes, we have the euro but the euro has no support. So you all know what that means. coupled with that, HM is not on board. And while expecting an improvement from 18z, we went the other way. It seems like in the world of modeling, there is very little support for a snowstorm. Light snow showers sure....a widespread warning event....not event close. Hopefully we can make some progress tonight but its almost game over as we are already talking about day 10Chuck hasnt posted yet about some obscure flux in the mesosphere causing a shrinking ozone hole thus enhancing the -AO for mid week and Roger Smith has yet to post a diatribe letting us know that the planets are aligned in such a way that the geomagnetic tug will pull the system farther West so yeah, probably best to punt this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 21 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: The GFS is getting ready to eat the Euro's lunch again. So you’re saying the GFS eats the Euro’s sh*t? Kinky. Das...paging das. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: He was on board at this point for last week. I'll be happy with 2" out of this. Anything more is gravy. That's where I'm at. The front is going to crawl with the trough getting pinched. The pos tilt and slow moving front is a good way to get a couple inches of snow. SW flow so the apps don't steal everything. The gulf connection is a new development and it just started showing up. My gut is telling me we get a 1-3" overunning event regardless of the getting hit with a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: That's where I'm at. The front is going to crawl with the trough getting pinched. The pos tilt and slow moving front is a good way to get a couple inches of snow. SW flow so the apps don't steal everything. The gulf connection is a new development and it just started showing up. My gut is telling me we get a 1-3" overunning event regardless of the getting hit with a coastal. I'll take my 2 tenths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: im ready for a 2 week torch that lifts in time for PD3 Love it when JI is chasing PD3. It's like the holy grail of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ji said: im ready for a 2 week torch that lifts in time for PD3 Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 My take on the strat is similar to Bob. I don't see signs of a true SSW that will precipitate total PV collapse however we're already seeing the AO tank and the strat is taking on some punishment at the same time. This could help prolong the AO which could mute the thaw that otherwise would be coming based on current tropical forcing in the Pacific. Hey if the Pacific ends up only being kinda icky and not full disaster we could even win big. Not saying that's likely but we could easily avoid a shutout in the next 3 weeks due to these factors were seeing. I agree that we're going to fight the PAC for the next 3 weeks or so in general. But what this winter might come down to imo are 2 things. Can we get lucky with AO help during that phase. And then after if we can line up the AO and Pacific then we could have a winning finish. I'm feeling more optimistic on the prospect of that lately given what im seeing. I respect isotherm a lot and he may be totally right but he was pretty pessimistic all along for our winter snow chances. And even he things things get better later. I'm not sold it's a shutout until then either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That's where I'm at. The front is going to crawl with the trough getting pinched. The pos tilt and slow moving front is a good way to get a couple inches of snow. SW flow so the apps don't steal everything. The gulf connection is a new development and it just started showing up. My gut is telling me we get a 1-3" overunning event regardless of the getting hit with a coastal. I'm with ya', except the GFS is dry as a bone wrt overunning. If the gfs is more right than wrong, we're the chumps again. The good news for everyone is that I've got the flu, so between the chills, shivers, fever, and overall weakness, I probably won't be here tonight to root on our quest for the illusive MA snowstorm. I was actually delerious last night and thought there were people in my bedroom. Lol This is a rough one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Good post @psuhoffman. I like Iso a lot too. However, he takes his long range forecasts VERY seriously. And rightfully so becuase he's as good as anyone out there. But becuase he has a stake in the LR he also needs to protect his POV. I really like what I see in general. This winter is clearly different with the AO. Not optimal but much different than the last 6. Take a look at this spread....heh....we might be tracking more than we think... EPS is picking up on more chances too down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm with ya', except the GFS is dry as a bone wrt overunning. If the gfs is more right than wrong, we're the chumps again. The good news for everyone is that I've got the flu, so between the chills, shivers, fever, and overall weakness, I probably won't be here tonight to root on our quest for the illusive MA snowstorm. I was actually delerious last night and thought there were people in my bedroom. Lol This is a rough one. You might be right because most of the ensemble runs that give us a healthy hit with the overrunning also end up a hit with the coastal. The more the front holders up and orients north south the more likely both are. The gfs kills everything with an insane cold push that blasts in and says game over I hope you get better soon. I've been sick over a week. It sucks. Wishing you a speedy recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm with ya', except the GFS is dry as a bone wrt overunning. If the gfs is more right than wrong, we're the chumps again. The good news for everyone is that I've got the flu, so between the chills, shivers, fever, and overall weakness, I probably won't be here tonight to root on our quest for the illusive MA snowstorm. I was actually delerious last night and thought there were people in my bedroom. Lol This is a rough one. OMG. Seriously feel better Mitch! Just curious—which people did you hallucinate? I’m guessing JI, Chill, and most definitely PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: OMG. Seriously feel better Mitch! Just curious—which people did you hallucinate? I’m guessing JI, Chill, and most definitely PSU. I've been in a prednisone insomnia induced haze for days. Maybe I was actually there!!! its not paranoia if they really are out to get you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 It's actually still paranoia Just that it happens to be justifiedSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Where you been stranger??? I lost the link to this place. Plus our weather is so boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Ji said: JB is on board https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/951977670337843200 It's right where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ian said: I lost the link to this place. Plus our weather is so boring. Let’s face it Ian...Twitter is about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Feels like 65 with the humiture and by noon with the wind chill will feel like 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Snowing at 90 on the GFS. Front seems less anemic then it did last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Looks like 1 to 2 inches I95 and west... better than nothing through 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 500’s are terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Its over. We cant even joy a few hoursSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Looks like 1 to 2 inches I95 and west... better than nothing through 108 We have 2 ways to get something. The slow frontal passage/overrunning deal can be a 1-3/2-4 deal with instant stickage. I'm good with that. I know others aren't but getting a couple inches on cold ground would be a nice win considering our luck near the corridor this year. The SW flow works well in our region. Not much downsloping to worry about. If the coastal pops then great and I'm glad it's not one or the other. The front running stuff is becoming more likely each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 GFS was east of Bermuda at this point with "the bomb" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: We have 2 ways to get something. The slow frontal passage/overrunning deal can be a 1-3/2-4 deal with instant stickage. I'm good with that. I know others aren't but getting a couple inches on cold ground would be a nice win considering our luck near the corridor this year. The SW flow works well in our region. Not much downsloping to worry about. If the coastal pops then great and I'm glad it's not one or the other. The front running stuff is becoming more likely each run. Yup, def agree here. Couple of inches from light overunning is fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just horrible trends. Once again one step backwards and then 9 steps backwardsSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Just horrible trends. Once again one step backwards and then 9 steps backwards Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk It's the best gfs run for your yard yet. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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