mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'm sorry to hear HM thinks it a miss. I'll never forget how he nailed PDII five days in advance, or close to it. I think we need 2 more decent runs of the Euro before treating it as a serious threat in light of the lousy runs it had with the bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Timing differences. 12z was slower so the best qpf period was later by about 12 hours. So comparing those times makes 18z look better but if you go out further 12z was better. But minor noise differences anyways. Saw that. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Eyeballing GEFS, all it really has is 3 hits and 1 HECS of those 3 members. I see where most of that precip mean was coming from lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 NAVGEM looks drier and more progressive positively tilted h5 look than 12z. I get its the NAVGEM but just another data point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm sorry to hear HM thinks it a miss. I'll never forget how he nailed PDII five days in advance, or close to it. I think we need 2 more decent runs of the Euro before treating it as a serious threat in light of the lousy runs it had with the bomb. I didn't read that Mitch, maybe I missed it. But, it sure seems HM is excited about the possibility of some significant strat action from wave 1 and wave 2. Good discussion on this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 42 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Was just going to post this...I like this Jan thaw thing! And if next week gets kicked east, you may want to reconsider your celebration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, frd said: I didn't read that Mitch, maybe I missed it. But, it sure seems HM is excited about the possibility of some significant strat action from wave 1 and wave 2. Good discussion on this thread. Nice to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm sorry to hear HM thinks it a miss. I'll never forget how he nailed PDII five days in advance, or close to it. I think we need 2 more decent runs of the Euro before treating it as a serious threat in light of the lousy runs it had with the bomb. HM is one of the best. I would certainly feel better with him on board. But everyone has busts in this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The Canadian ensemble still doesn't like this storm, but this has the feel of a good old-fashioned "Euro-leads-the-way" deal.When the Euro shows what we want it ALWAYS leads the way even when it isnt leading the way and we will bear hug the pisss out of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And if next week gets kicked east, you may want to reconsider your celebration. lol....yeah I'm throwin a party over here based on a 200+ hr op run. But, its a better look than when we were having our historic cold spell. Agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: lol....yeah I'm throwin a party over here based on a 200+ hr op run. But, its a better look than when we were having our historic cold spell. Agree? For precip chances no doubt. Night and day. Snow wont come easy. Even with the -ao, west tracks will still happen no problem. Behind each west track could provide opportunity. Similar to what we're seeing this weekend into next week. A lot of support for another warm rain/front in a week to 10 days. Wave spacing is tight. That will keep us on our toes and it won't be boring at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: For precip chances no doubt. Night and day. Snow wont come easy. Even with the -ao, west tracks will still happen no problem. Behind each west track could provide opportunity. Similar to what we're seeing this weekend into next week. A lot of support for another warm rain/front in a week to 10 days. Wave spacing is tight. That will keep us on our toes and it won't be boring at least. Bob, you still liking the looks of the strat in the coming weeks. I know what Isotherm said here, but it seems that to a degree, there is going to be some effect and with a lag Feb looks interesting. HM seems rather interested, and that's enough for me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: For precip chances no doubt. Night and day. Snow wont come easy. Even with the -ao, west tracks will still happen no problem. Behind each west track could provide opportunity. Similar to what we're seeing this weekend into next week. A lot of support for another warm rain/front in a week to 10 days. Wave spacing is tight. That will keep us on our toes and it won't be boring at least. The day 10 thing has been looking interesting on the Gfs for a number of days. I wish the 18z run didn't have NC B AE VA, and MD lower eastern shore as a bullseye, even if it is 10 days away...call me superstitious. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Not sure what the manic depression over the 18z gefs is? Looking at individual members plot and comparing to 12z there was a noticeable shift W with the westernmost clusters. I didnt see a jump East, I dont see a major shift to progressiveness. This run looks status quo to me with a 50/50 blend of improvements and steps back vs 12z......and 12z was a notable step in the right direction from 6z. Euro looks solid, CMC is finding itself or trying to, NAVGEM is cluelessly progressive at 18z, NAM extrapolated to 126 hours is sick, CRAS is so wound up with the original closed low near the Great Lakes it wants to form a cutoff, Ian posted......the world is right at this hour. Relax guys, potential is there and things have trended favorably over past 18 hours. Thats a good place to be 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not sure what the manic depression over the 18z gefs is? Looking at individual members plot and comparing to 12z there was a noticeable shift W with the westernmost clusters. I didnt see a jump East, I dont see a major shift to progressiveness. This run looks status quo to me with a 50/50 blend of improvements and steps back vs 12z......and 12z was a notable step in the right direction from 6z. Euro looks solid, CMC is finding itself or trying to, NAVGEM is cluelessly progressive at 18z, NAM extrapolated to 126 hours is sick, CRAS is so wound up with the original closed low near the Great Lakes it wants to form a cutoff, Ian posted......the world is right at this hour. Relax guys, potential is there and things have trended favorably over past 18 hours. Thats a good place to be 5-6 days out. lol! I knew it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Fascinating to look at in animation, and this will play a role in our weather in the longterm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, frd said: Bob, you still liking the looks of the strat in the coming weeks. I know what Isotherm said here, but it seems that to a degree, there is going to be some effect and with a lag Feb looks interesting. HM seems rather interested, and that's enough for me . I only started paying attention to the strat 3-4 years ago so my knowledge is a fraction of others. But I have formed some opinions. It can be a chicken egg thing with the upwelling/downwelling process. Normally we focus on the strat when we are in dire need for things to break right. That's usually a downwelling situation because we need the strat to knock out a strong +ao. That seems to rarely work out. A lot of hype about potential that doesn't pan out. Sometimes when the AO wants to rage positive it's going to do it come hell or high water. Right now is different. Even the though the strat has been pretty cold and strong, the -ao has already shown signs of life in late Nov/early Dec. There seems to be some sort of positive feedback cycle going on that I really like. The -AO kinda snuck up on us. Abrupt changes are usually a sign of potential peristance down the line. Works both ways of course but every day that goes by makes me think more and more that we are heading for a more classic and prolonged -ao. That's why I paged isotherm. Now we're seeing some talk of the strat taking a hit but it's coinciding with an abrupt shift in the troposphere first and not second. My guess is the trop is going to drive the bus the next couple weeks and it's all going to congeal with the strat and trop working in unison in Feb. It's just a low confidence and low skill guess but it feels right. We'll see if I'm right in the next 3 weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 so overall, today has been a disaster. Yes, we have the euro but the euro has no support. So you all know what that means. coupled with that, HM is not on board. And while expecting an improvement from 18z, we went the other way. It seems like in the world of modeling, there is very little support for a snowstorm. Light snow showers sure....a widespread warning event....not event close. Hopefully we can make some progress tonight but its almost game over as we are already talking about day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I only started paying attention to the strat 3-4 years ago so my knowledge is a fraction of others. But I have formed some opinions. It can be a chicken egg thing with the upwelling/downwelling process. Normally we focus on the strat when we are in dire need for things to break right. That's usually a downwelling situation because we need the strat to knock out a strong +ao. That seems to rarely work out. A lot of hype about potential that doesn't pan out. Sometimes when the AO wants to rage positive it's going to do it come hell or high water. Right now is different. Even the though the strat has been pretty cold and strong, the -ao has already shown signs of life in late Nov/early Dec. There seems to be some sort of positive feedback cycle going on that I really like. The -AO kinda snuck up on us. Abrupt changes are usually a sign of potential peristance down the line. Works both ways of course but every day that goes by makes me think more and more that we are heading for a more classic and prolonged -ao. That's why I paged isotherm. Now we're seeing some talk of the strat taking a hit but it's coinciding with an abrupt shift in the troposphere first and not second. My guess is the trop is going to drive the bus the next couple weeks and it's all going to congeal with the strat and trop working in unison in Feb. It's just a low confidence and low skill guess but it feels right. We'll see if I'm right in the next 3 weeks.... Cool , sounds good ! And it feels better talking about the strat when it is cold and when we do have chances of snowfall, because as we know, many feel the talk of SSW and things of that nature, are spoken about in times of desparation , ie ugly warm winters awaiting the pattern change that never comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: so overall, today has been a disaster. Yes, we have the euro but the euro has no support. So you all know what that means. coupled with that, HM is not on board. And while expecting an improvement from 18z, we went the other way. It seems like in the world of modeling, there is very little support for a snowstorm. Light snow showers sure....a widespread warning event....not event close. Hopefully we can make some progress tonight but its almost game over as we are already talking about day 10 The GFS is getting ready to eat the Euro's lunch again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 The GFS is getting ready to eat the Euro's lunch again.Is that good or badSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: so overall, today has been a disaster. Yes, we have the euro but the euro has no support. So you all know what that means. coupled with that, HM is not on board. And while expecting an improvement from 18z, we went the other way. It seems like in the world of modeling, there is very little support for a snowstorm. Light snow showers sure....a widespread warning event....not event close. Hopefully we can make some progress tonight but its almost game over as we are already talking about day 10 Shouldn't we wait until a good event is off the table before hitting the disaster button? If anything we're avoiding a disaster. We're trending away from a classic northern stream miller B screwover while moving towards a possible overunning event. If we get some luck thrown in we might get some upper level low action with an approach from the SW. It might end up being a disaster anyway but we've trended away from a depressing outcome towards one with legit hope. Then again, you cancelling and calling it a disaster combined with an article from Wes and an Ian drive by means everything is on track for a legit event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Is that good or bad Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk good if you hate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Ji said: good if you hate snow What are you going to do if the 0z gfs shows a big hit and the 0z euro goes progressive/fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 What are you going to do if the 0z gfs shows a big hit and the 0z euro goes progressive/fail?Have an existential crisisSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: What are you going to do if the 0z gfs shows a big hit and the 0z euro goes progressive/fail? not worried about that. The GFS dosent do drastic shifts like the euro and ukmet. The ukmet is the worst offender. One run, its in chicago the next run its in jacksonville. It would be nice to actually have 2 globals on board. The euro was encouraging but everything after that was a clusterf lol...not one global model shows anything close to the euro...not even the JMA haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Shouldn't we wait until a good event is off the table before hitting the disaster button? If anything we're avoiding a disaster. We're trending away from a classic northern stream miller B screwover while moving towards a possible overunning event. If we get some luck thrown in we might get some upper level low action with an approach from the SW. It might end up being a disaster anyway but we've trended away from a depressing outcome towards one with legit hope. Then again, you cancelling and calling it a disaster combined with an article from Wes and an Ian drive by means everything is on track for a legit event. Ian came in to troll and Wes always kicks himself for writing articles too early. Anyway...loooking forward the 21-22 event...remember the GFS had a 60 hour snow event 2 days ago on its 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 JB is on board https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/951977670337843200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: What are you going to do if the 0z gfs shows a big hit and the 0z euro goes progressive/fail? Root for a thaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: JB is on board https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/951977670337843200 Yeah but when is he not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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