Maestrobjwa Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's mostly noise but no improvement at all. Gfs is really pushing the cold and gets the front way east of the euro so the low develops too far out to sea. Gfs is also faster with the trough by about 6 hours. Good old fashioned model war. Hasn't that been the unfortunate trend this month? (atmospheric memory, anyone? Lol) Just so hard to trust anything when the GFS is once again doing something entirely different (and the last time that happened we got screwed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hasn't that been the unfortunate trend this month? (atmospheric memory, anyone? Lol) Just so hard to trust anything when the GFS is once again doing something entirely different (and the last time that happened we got screwed). If you're talking about the big storm then it's the opposite. Med range was east and verification was much further west. Just not far enough west for the 95 corridor. Honeslty, it's remarkable that storm punched as far west as it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: HM thinks it's a northeast storm. Weird given right now the gfs misses us to the southeast not the northeast but he might just be going pure Nina climo and ignoring current NWP. Still time for it to trend to a Boxing Day type miss then hook back into New England. Good to see Ian posting again! It would make some sense based on the seasonal trend to think east with the midweek system. It just seems like everything wants to be east this year. How far east? Who knows. But the GFS has been pretty good about the timing of frontal passages so far this winter. Still a long ways out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Mount Holly seems to be favoring a similar outcome based on the 12z suite, but certainly leaves open the possibility of a more Euro-like evolution: My take on that is their favoring the clipper goes north then the coastal develops ots and is a non event anywhere. i read HMs comment more to mean he thinks it's a fail for the mid Atlantic but impacts north. But maybe I read it wrong. Long way to go with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This will probably irritate some(model verification and all), but I couldn't give a crap that the 18z GFS showed no improvement. The next GFS op run that matters after 12z, is 0z. Lets see which way things go then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: HM thinks it's a northeast storm. Weird given right now the gfs misses us to the southeast not the northeast but he might just be going pure Nina climo and ignoring current NWP. Still time for it to trend to a Boxing Day type miss then hook back into New England. I was looking back at the 12z runs. 12Z NAVGEM has a scenario where we get light event like a glorified frontal passage and it hooks back into NE as a much better system. Not saying HM would give much thought to the NAVGEM but it does do something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My take on that is their favoring the clipper goes north then the coastal develops ots and is a non event anywhere. i read HMs comment more to mean he thinks it's a fail for the mid Atlantic but impacts north. But maybe I read it wrong. Long way to go with this. lwx too imo There remains some timing uncertainty with the trailing cold front and how much moisture will be associated -- although overall it should be light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 We're 5 days out. If we got a huge hit on the GFS right now, we'd all be scared to death because it was a huge hit five days out. I'd rather take my chances with a trending storm until game time then be getting hit five days out. Especially with how models have done with 5 day leads so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My take on that is their favoring the clipper goes north then the coastal develops ots and is a non event anywhere. i read HMs comment more to mean he thinks it's a fail for the mid Atlantic but impacts north. But maybe I read it wrong. Long way to go with this. I think they are looking at the uncertainty within both ensembles wrt to the h5 low position, and favoring surface low development too far NE, whether or not that means the NE gets hit or missed is not relevant to the forecast down here...they think odds favor a miss for the MA at this juncture. And yeah I agree there is a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: We're 5 days out. If we got a huge hit on the GFS right now, we'd all be scared to death because it was a huge hit five days out. I'd rather take my chances with a trending storm until game time then be getting hit five days out. Especially with how models have done with 5 day leads so far this winter. the differences at h5 are quite noticeable at 120hrs 12z vs. 18z. in fact 18z looks more like 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Don't sleep on the 21-23 period. It's showing up on enough guidance now to be a window. After the front clears around the 20-21 we have a window where something could get under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Don't sleep on the 21-23 period. It's showing up on enough guidance now to be a window. After the front clears around the 20-21 we have a window where something could get under us. Lol...weve already moved on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: the differences at h5 are quite noticeable at 120hrs 12z vs. 18z. in fact 18z looks more like 6z. Personally, I don't view a trend as a good model run building on it's last model run 5 days out. I agree it does matter to an extent. However, I'm more interested to see all the models as a whole. Most globals within the last 24 hrs have started to show the possibility of a coastal forming south of us. No reason to get super nervous about changes at h5 this far out as long as the general idea still exists. The spread is still to large at this point to nit-pick one model run taking a step back at h5. Just my thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol...weve already moved on I can multitask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol...weve already moved on hr300-324 is chuckle worthy as it shows what seems to happen often as a system looks decent and then just gets squashed. and its once again bitterly cold. not saying its a lock but that theme seems to be the primary one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol...weve already moved on You started it man. What will 1.5" get u up to on the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Don't sleep on the 21-23 period. It's showing up on enough guidance now to be a window. After the front clears around the 20-21 we have a window where something could get under us. Was just going to post this...I like this Jan thaw thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: hr300-324 is chuckle worthy as it shows what seems to happen often as a system looks decent and then just gets squashed. and its once again bitterly cold. not saying its a lock but that theme seems to be the primary one. We’ll probably go straight back to the arctic freezer with no QPF anywhere in site. Lol. For now, we need to focus on next week only. That’s my plan anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Was just going to post this...I like this Jan thaw thing! #bestorchever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: hr300-324 is chuckle worthy as it shows what seems to happen often as a system looks decent and then just gets squashed. and its once again bitterly cold. not saying its a lock but that theme seems to be the primary one. I brought up a general pattern look at range that I liked. Your worrying about the exact track of a synoptic system 12 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol...weve already moved on That was your goal right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I brought up a general pattern look at range that I liked. Your worrying about the exact track of a synoptic system 12 days away? negative. I am not worried about anything really. but just noticed as I loop through the entire 18Z run starting right now through 384 that the theme of strong HPs rolling out of NW Canada and the conveyor of cold really continues.... which is how it has been since Christmas with no real influence from the SS and hence its mostly dry. and systems that do look like they might form from a good looking h5 NS vort seem to get squashed or form too far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Ian said: Smart. You're welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: GEFS seems a little worse at h5 but gets a little more precip further north and west...must be some bombs in there. It just started on WB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Anyone who sees this on a day 5 gfs plot and says "next" or has a problem with the gfs showing a NC snowstorm day 12... hasn't paid attention to how this game is played. I'm not saying it's gonna snow yet. But I'm totally at peace with the 18zgfs run. It was fine imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 18z gefs looks just like the op. Shocker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Gefs trended southeast on qpf from what I see on TT. Not enough to bother me much but it's worse then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs looks just like the op. Shocker NCEP needs to solve the group think problem. Having a bunch of mini gfs's saying "yea that" every 6 hours is useless. Gefs still has some variance at huge range but even then not enough. It jerks run to run with the op. It's only useful in the rare occasions the op has a truly bad hiccup run. I've started averaging the 4 gefs runs a day together in my mind to get more use from them and looking for trends but each run shows too little variance to be of much use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: What am I missing? The boat....the boat you'll need if you want to get under meaningful precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The boat....the boat you'll need if you want to get under meaningful precip. Timing differences. 12z was slower so the best qpf period was later by about 12 hours. So comparing those times makes 18z look better but if you go out further 12z was better. But minor noise differences anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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