MountainGeek Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, mappy said: ION! This storm must have him positively charged! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: ION! 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What brings you to this shiithole see avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: What brings you to this shiithole The Ian index is now positive. We're going to get raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ian said: Smart. Where you been stranger??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This post won't be very interesting to the more knowledgable posters here, but I've been trying to get a better understanding of what's going on between the surface and 500mb. Today's Euro run was a good example, so I thought I'd share while we wait for the 18z globals and ensembles. At hour 132 on today's Euro run, snow is falling across much of our region. The coastal has formed offshore, but the surface winds are from the north. But it is dry to our north. So where is all the water for the precipitation coming from? It becomes clear if you look at the midlevels. The below gif starts at the surface and goes up to 500mb. If you track the centers of circulation at each level, you can see that there is basically a funnel of circulation extending from the surface low (on the east end) to the 500mb trough (on the west end), with closed circulation at all levels except 500 mb (which is just about to close off). At 850 mb and 700 mb, there is a clear onshore component to the winds, and at these levels there is high relative humidity over us. I believe that's where the water is coming from. The closed low at 500 mb helps establish a more onshore flow in the mid-levels, which is why it gives us bigger storms. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Wait til he finds out this is a "how much for Dover" forum first and foremost now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 People manage their emotions differently. I'm excited we have something' legit to track. Doesn't mean I think it's gonna snow yet or I'll be distraught if it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 You don't need to look at a single model to know the bar has been raised on this event. Wes writing an article and Ian popping in is all you need to know. Jeb will start taking appointments soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You don't need to look at a single model to know the bar has been raised on this event. Wes writing an article and Ian popping in is all you need to know. Jeb will start taking appointments soon make a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Rain in BOS and perhaps NYC while we snow always gets me going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The Canadian ensemble still doesn't like this storm, but this has the feel of a good old-fashioned "Euro-leads-the-way" deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Good to see Wes thinks we have potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ger said: Rain in BOS and perhaps NYC while we snow always gets me going That’s the ultimate score for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You don't need to look at a single model to know the bar has been raised on this event. Wes writing an article and Ian popping in is all you need to know. Jeb will start taking appointments soon oh well thats different.. If IAN popped in.. im all in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, PCT_ATC said: oh well thats different.. If IAN popped in.. im all in.. The problem is it's day 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The problem is it's day 5... Better than D7 like our last best storm potential fizzled at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Better than D7 like our last best storm potential fizzled at. North trend = New England special. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: North trend = New England special. Sorry Good thing there's been a pronounced south trend for the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Gfs is still pressing the front through vs holding it up like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 On 12/6/2017 at 1:22 AM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Whoever thought of last year's SE paste may have been onto something! On 12/6/2017 at 1:03 PM, Cobalt said: Eyeballing Euro, it looks slightly better than 0z thru 48 hours On 12/6/2017 at 1:12 PM, stormtracker said: My clothes are safe. I'm shocked at this development. On 12/6/2017 at 1:15 PM, Bob Chill said: Maybe, but it didn't waver much at all from 0z for areas from NC northward. Back to back runs looking very similar at this lead is a telltale sign most of the time. On 12/6/2017 at 1:24 PM, osfan24 said: Right, but when's the last time the Euro didn't give someone a snowstorm and they got blitzed? On 12/7/2017 at 2:19 PM, midatlanticweather said: Hear European goes zonal in the long range. What is the word? On 12/7/2017 at 9:24 PM, Cobalt said: 3K NAM further west through hr 31 On 12/8/2017 at 1:08 AM, yoda said: If you want to take the EURO snow map as is... 2" line is just east of the I-81 corridor On 12/8/2017 at 11:22 PM, mattie g said: #huggers On 12/13/2017 at 2:08 PM, mitchnick said: Looks OK to me with all that cold over us and to our north https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017121300&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0 On 12/16/2017 at 2:04 AM, Cobalt said: Euro says "too North? How about too South?" Rule #37 of being a Snow weenie. You never complain about snow being too far South or too far North on D5+ models. They will answer your request even more so. Want the storm North? Boom, you've got 70 and sun while folks in Michigan complain about mixing problems. Want it farther South? Boom, Atlantic freezes over 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Good thing there's been a pronounced south trend for the last 24 hours. Hm tweet to me was pretty discouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs is still pressing the front through vs holding it up like the euro. Yea, even a little more progressive compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Hm tweet to me was pretty discouraging Should we cancel now to be safe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, even a little more progressive compared to 12z. It's mostly noise but no improvement at all. Gfs is really pushing the cold and gets the front way east of the euro so the low develops too far out to sea. Gfs is also faster with the trough by about 6 hours. Good old fashioned model war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Hm tweet to me was pretty discouraging Are we out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS has a way bigger ULL over quebec compared to 12z. Not liking the trend, the southern stream isn't going to cutoff with that there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Are we out? HM thinks it's a northeast storm. Weird given right now the gfs misses us to the southeast not the northeast but he might just be going pure Nina climo and ignoring current NWP. Still time for it to trend to a Boxing Day type miss then hook back into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: HM thinks it's a northeast storm. Weird given right now the gfs misses us to the southeast not the northeast but he might just be going pure Nina climo and ignoring current NWP. Still time for it to trend to a Boxing Day type miss then hook back into New England. Mount Holly seems to be favoring a similar outcome based on the 12z suite, but certainly leaves open the possibility of a more Euro-like evolution: Wed thru Fri...Alberta Clipper moving through the lower Great Lakes with eventual redevelopment further east, but the tough question is exactly: where? The latest suite of 12Z/12 operational models continue to diverge, with little run to run consistency. The GFS develops low pressure off the NC coast Wed night and moves it northeast along the northern wall of the Gulf Stream, well south of the 40N/70W benchmark, into Thursday. The UKMET is similar. These scenarios would have little impact on our region, with the storm system remaining well offshore. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is much further west, developing low pressure east of the Virginia Capes Wed night, then northward through Cape Cod on Thu. It`s expansive precip shield on the western side of the system (a bit of a model bias at times) is also suspect. Nevertheless, this solution has greater impacts on our region in terms of wintry weather. The respective ensembles are similar, the GEFS further east and the EPS further west. But there is a lot of spread noted in the mid- level height fields of both the GEFS and EPS regarding the placement of the cutoff low, which translates into uncertainty with the location of the attendant surface system, e.g., storm track. WPC favors a blend of the GEFS and EPS ensembles, which places emphasis on more extensive redevelopment further north and east of our region, which would limit impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 gfs giving RDU a snowstorm 5-6 days out is fine with me. Last time I was discouraged because the trajectory was all wrong and the gfs was near Bermuda at this range. I'll admit it came back west a little more then I expected but I just felt it was all wrong from this range. The adjustment we need this time is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: HM thinks it's a northeast storm. Weird given right now the gfs misses us to the southeast not the northeast but he might just be going pure Nina climo and ignoring current NWP. Still time for it to trend to a Boxing Day type miss then hook back into New England. Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: HM thinks it's a northeast storm. Weird given right now the gfs misses us to the southeast not the northeast but he might just be going pure Nina climo and ignoring current NWP. Still time for it to trend to a Boxing Day type miss then hook back into New England. Given the last 24-48 hours, I don't think anybody has even medium confidence. 2 days ago, it was an easy call for the NE but as leads shorten that idea is all but gone. As least the idea of a straight NS miller b jumping from the lakes to coast. Seems like for us we have a 75% chance at a light event (T-3"), 25% chance at a big event, no event, or mixed/rain. That seems like a fair call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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