Amped Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: In this range I think everyone would prefer for the Euro to support a further east solution than west......as we know these storms tend to trend west over time. This will be more of a wild goose chase than a steady trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: This will be more of a wild goose chase than a steady trend. what do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Take a look at the mid levels around MA/CT. Heh, the euro is beautiful here. We're one shift away from a really big storm and 2 shifts away from things I'd rather not talk about. What kind of shifts should we look for and conversely, not look for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Wasnt this potential threat period originally the heart of our January "thaw" on all ens mean just 5-7 days ago with a massively widespread and anomalous AN 2m temp regime? Now we're talking possible snow in the teens and fluff factor? Unreal :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Won't be surprised to see a couple of 1000 mile swings here. Reverse psych or friendly trolling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a weird progression. Instead of blocking there's a squeeze play between the PNA ridge rolling forward and the WAR. As they squeeze on each other to our north, the trough gets pinched off. It's not something we normally see. So there is "blocking" so to speak just not the classic kind we usually have with good events. The trough goes from super positive, to neutral, to neg, to closed off without much progression to the east. The coastal bomb that just happened was a lucky dance of a lot of things at the right time. Although this progression is much different, it's another lucky dance of a lot of things. Hopefully the EPS jumps on board. There wasn't all that much support with the 0z for the kind of outcome we just saw. Hopefully that changes here in a few minutes... The AO tanking is a key. The WAR has been a stable feature and it's slowing things down upstream but mostly because the AO tanking means the trough can't lift north. So the path of least resistance becomes due south and it digs. Good things happen around here when the AO tanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Reverse psych or friendly trolling? Not being positive or negative, just commenting on the low predictability of this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: My thoughts exactly. PAC can be meh. I will take my chances with Atl blocking and ridging in the preferred places. I looked at the Kocin books and one thing that 9 out of 10 KU storms have is the Atl in our favor. There are a few with meh PAC, but almost all the biggies have the Atl. The thing is though, if it's one or the other you have to take the Pac 100% of the time. Yes, KU's have blocking but they also aren't annual events. Not even close. You only have to go back a couple years (12-13) to see how bad it gets with a crap pac + strong blocking. Also, the pac isn't a disaster right now so the -AO or -NAO can force something under us. Plant a big vortex over AK then turn off the lights because it's over. I just like snow chances in general. Doesn't have to be a KU. The pac can deliver good snow/cold with a dominant +AO/NAO regime. The pac can take away all chances of snow during a dominant -AO/NAO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This setup is somewhat different than previous failed events where the northern stream dominated and the GFS schooled the Euro. I’m less inclined to believe the GFS is winning this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/12/coastal-storm-next-week-has-the-most-snowfall-potential-so-far-this-winter-in-d-c/?utm_term=.32254e7a6997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The "thaw" is happening. It's happening the last couple days and it's going to happen again sometime around or after next weekend. It only briefly looked like a lights out thaw pattern. There isn't a big SE ridge and trough in the pac NW/GOA. We get that sometimes and it can lasts weeks or even months. What we are seeing now is ridge amplification in front of strong fronts/storms but because there is no SE ridge, fronts can clear no problem. As soon at the -AO started gaining support we all dropped the long term thaw idea. We're going to get some warm days but not 5 or 10 in a row kind of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just looking over the EPS, like Bob mentioned, there is a small "camp" if you will that actually bring the low right on top of DC, giving the beltway folk little and the western folk a pounding. To my untrained eye I count 6 members with this sort of evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just looking over the EPS, like Bob mentioned, there is a small "camp" if you will that actually bring the low right on top of DC, giving the beltway folk little and the western folk a pounding. To my untrained eye I count 6 members with this sort of evolution. And a red flag for those wanting more southwest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Just looking over the EPS, like Bob mentioned, there is a small "camp" if you will that actually bring the low right on top of DC, giving the beltway folk little and the western folk a pounding. To my untrained eye I count 6 members with this sort of evolution. That helps temper the miss to the east idea a bit. But we don’t need a lot more ticks to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Just looking over the EPS, like Bob mentioned, there is a small "camp" if you will that actually bring the low right on top of DC, giving the beltway folk little and the western folk a pounding. To my untrained eye I count 6 members with this sort of evolution. That's a good sign though. There are more east then west solutions. The EPS doesn't suffer from group think at this range like the gefs. So there are going to be divergent outliers. It's good to have some west tracks to offset the east. If there were only hits and misses east it would make me more worried of an east trend. Long story short I like where we are. Doesn't mean this is a lock my any means but I think this is our best threat this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's a good sign though. There are more east then west solutions. The EPS doesn't suffer from group think at this range like the gefs. So there are going to be divergent outliers. It's good to have some west tracks to offset the east. If there were only hits and misses east it would make me more worried of an east trend. Long story short I like where we are. Doesn't mean this is a lock my any means but I think this is our best threat this year. considering every model but the euro is east....id like to keep having a western shift. We are long way for a low tucked over alexandria, va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, Superstorm said: And a red flag for those wanting more southwest. . 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That helps temper the miss to the east idea a bit. But we don’t need a lot more ticks to the west. We don't need any more ticks to the west then what the euro shows. Even the gfs I think if it's h5 is right will come around but very slowly. It didn't figure out the Delmarva was getting good snow Jan 4 until late. When the gfs is struggling to see it like this it often will stubbornly hang on till the last minute and cause angst every run. But what we want as bob said is simply a slightly more juiced wave and deeper low. Even as is it was a 5-8" snow. A very very slight adjustment and it's a 6-12" storm. Too much adjustment and we're raining and the NW crew are happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: considering every model but the euro is east....id like to keep having a western shift. We are long way for a low tucked over alexandria, va I want to see the rest come around yea but that doesn't mean the euro needs to go west. It can hold and the others trend towards it. That's pretty much what happened today. We're not inside 72 hours. I don't need a bullseye on all guidance now. Too early for that. We know it's gonna shift some. More then 50% the shift is northwest. So let it be sitting there and trend into us. That January 4 storm was over Bermuda at this range. I'm fine with where this is now on gfs and euro. Now just get some minor improvements each run on the other guidance and gfs surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's a good sign though. There are more east then west solutions. The EPS doesn't suffer from group think at this range like the gefs. So there are going to be divergent outliers. It's good to have some west tracks to offset the east. If there were only hits and misses east it would make me more worried of an east trend. Long story short I like where we are. Doesn't mean this is a lock my any means but I think this is our best threat this year. The GEFS had 2 members in that camp, so it's approximately proportion to the ensemble size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: I want to see the rest come around yea but that doesn't mean the euro needs to go west. It can hold and the others trend towards it. That's pretty much what happened today. We're not inside 72 hours. I don't need a bullseye on all guidance now. Too early for that. We know it's gonna shift some. More then 50% the shift is northwest. So let it be sitting there and trend into us. That January 4 storm was over Bermuda at this range. I'm fine with where this is now on gfs and euro. Now just get some minor improvements each run on the other guidance and gfs surface. I liked the EPS in general. I flipped though them all. The # of tucked solutions that rain is pretty small. The vast majority deliver some snow even if the coastal doesn't happen so my post earlier about the odds of some snow are better than a coin flip looks pretty good with the EPS as a whole. Looked like 75% of EPS members delivered some snow. I like that. There weren't too many misses east either. I liked that also. The one thing I liked the best was that all but a couple big hits had really nice distribution. A storm that hits ALL of us would go a long ways around here. I wouldn't say that's favored yet but the EPS members that had big hits (25% or so) looks really good for the whole subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This setup is somewhat different than previous failed events where the northern stream dominated and the GFS schooled the Euro. I’m less inclined to believe the GFS is winning this one Agreed. Gfs isn’t far off from a euro outcome though. Just needs better spacing. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Even as is it was a 5-8" snow. A very very slight adjustment and it's a 6-12" storm. Too much adjustment and we're raining and the NW crew are happy. I suppose there's a first time for everything...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I liked the EPS in general. I flipped though them all. The # of tucked solutions that rain is pretty small. The vast majority deliver some snow even if the coastal doesn't happen so my post earlier about the odds of some snow are better than a coin flip looks pretty good with the EPS as a whole. Looked like 75% of EPS members delivered some snow. I like that. There weren't too many misses east either. I liked that also. The one thing I liked the best was that all but a couple big hits had really nice distribution. A storm that hits ALL of us would go a long ways around here. I wouldn't say that's favored yet but the EPS members that had big hits (25% or so) looks really good for the whole subforum. It was a good run. Simple. Mean snowfall jumped significantly. Not just for this storm but the whole period. Blocking looks better every run. Today was a good day so far. We are still way too far out on this to stress details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: I suppose there's a first time for everything...... I win either way. On almost all the tucked solutions I'm just far enough NW to still do good even if Winchester to Hagerstown is better. On the ones that clobber D.C. I'm far enough east to do good. That's why my mean is higher. Not because I'm likely to get more but I don't have as many misses as other locations. Only ones that miss me miss everyone. It's a good example of the details on the mean mattering more then the number. So I'm rooting for a track where the 95 corridor is the east end of the big totals and the i81 crew is the west end. Everyone wins. As bob said there were a decent number of those in the EPS. Eastern areas had their fun. Everyone else's turn. Although I'll miss the Delaware updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The "thaw" is happening. It's happening the last couple days and it's going to happen again sometime around or after next weekend. It only briefly looked like a lights out thaw pattern. There isn't a big SE ridge and trough in the pac NW/GOA. We get that sometimes and it can lasts weeks or even months. What we are seeing now is ridge amplification in front of strong fronts/storms but because there is no SE ridge, fronts can clear no problem. As soon at the -AO started gaining support we all dropped the long term thaw idea. We're going to get some warm days but not 5 or 10 in a row kind of stuff. We're going to win some. We're gonna lose some. High variability, high volatility. Enjoy the snow to the full while it is around. Typical Nina weather. Sharp ups and downs. This winter and particularly this spring will definitely NOT be boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 hour ago, usedtobe said: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/01/12/coastal-storm-next-week-has-the-most-snowfall-potential-so-far-this-winter-in-d-c/?utm_term=.32254e7a6997 wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So I'm rooting for a track where the 95 corridor is the east end of the big totals and the i81 crew is the west end. Everyone wins. As bob said there were a decent number of those in the EPS. Eastern areas had their fun. Everyone else's turn. Although I'll miss the Delaware updates. Yeah you're in a nice spot either way. Of course I'm always rooting for everyone to get blasted, but if that's not on the table then the western folks are REALLY overdue for a little love. Hopefully I can find a good alternative website to keep track of school closings in DE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Too early I won't get excited until Amped does Smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ian said: Smart. ION! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ian said: Smart. What brings you to this shiithole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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