SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Identical track and progression with what the euro just put out but a more developed coastal as it passes our latitude so we get hit hard with the comma/CCB. That and more overrunning in advance. Add those 2 things and we all get 12"+. Muchas gracias, I'm also wondering about the blocking (or lack thereof) for this event. I hear that term thrown around a lot but never know exactly what people are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, usedtobe said: I think it interesting how similar the GFS and Euro are at 500 and how different the results. That's most of what I mentioned in my quick piece that may or may not end up being published. The two differences are where the low get going and whether a coastal trough sets up like on the Euro. Looking at the GFS 500, I was surprised that it did not give us anything except on Tuesday. GFS always seems stingy on the back side of surface and upper level lows until leads shorten. I can't even count how many times I've seen a nice look at h5 and the surface sucked. I'm sure there are much more complicated and accurate ways to describe "stingy" but that's how I see it happen in the med range on the regular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Remember 2010 as got a kinda wet snow that wound down to sleet and drizzle, nothing on radar and then wham around 8am it got windy with heavy snow, very limited visibility and I got 7" in 4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 EPS looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Muchas gracias, I'm also wondering about the blocking (or lack thereof) for this event. I hear that term thrown around a lot but never know exactly what people are talking about. It's a weird progression. Instead of blocking there's a squeeze play between the PNA ridge rolling forward and the WAR. As they squeeze on each other to our north, the trough gets pinched off. It's not something we normally see. So there is "blocking" so to speak just not the classic kind we usually have with good events. The trough goes from super positive, to neutral, to neg, to closed off without much progression to the east. The coastal bomb that just happened was a lucky dance of a lot of things at the right time. Although this progression is much different, it's another lucky dance of a lot of things. Hopefully the EPS jumps on board. There wasn't all that much support with the 0z for the kind of outcome we just saw. Hopefully that changes here in a few minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, poolz1 said: EPS looks good Hard to believe that look is not just an amazing outcome vice a moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Heh, for a crappy pac...this panel sure shows a way to overcome it...yea...I'm good with this... This goes back to the whole Atlantic vs. Pacific argument. Most people like to say of the Pac sucks we are toast. I disagree as long as we have an east based -NAO like that map is showing we are always in the game. We need systems to be forced under us. And that Greenland blocking is historically the easiest way for that to happen for us. Although over the past few years it just hasnt materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Here are the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 29 minutes ago, Ji said: we actually got screwed that storm Yep. Worst event in my lifetime. 3". Forecast here was for 7 - 13". Sun out by 10AM. Wind-whipping blew so much snow on the ground that by the time it sublimated and/or blew onto paved surfaces and melted in the sun-light we had significantly less snow on the ground that afternoon than we started the day with. All while watching areas to the east get pounded all day long. Jeez, sounds familiar..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 can you post the hour 132 EPS means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 @Porsche I think we want the 126 and 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Hmm, did feb 10 not do well for westerners Maybe I was at Wisp during the Feb. 5-6 event. IT WAS LIKE 30 INCHES that's all i know. First winter I owned my house and we got rocked by endless snow. They all just blur together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Jandurin said: Hmm, did feb 10 not do well for westerners Maybe I was at Wisp during the Feb. 5-6 event. IT WAS LIKE 30 INCHES that's all i know. Wisp and Canaan got crushed all winter in 09/10. I was up there skiing on like a 40 inch natural base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: Hmm, did feb 10 not do well for westerners Maybe I was at Wisp during the Feb. 5-6 event. IT WAS LIKE 30 INCHES that's all i know. No, it did not. Although, the 3" it dropped IMBY would double this season's total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The cutoff low setups really are the hardest to predict. The low has to cutoff in the exact right place at the exact right time for us to get a hit, that is assuming it cuts off at all. Won't be surprised to see a couple of 1000 mile swings here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Wisp and Canaan got crushed all winter in 09/10. I was up there skiing on like a 40 inch natural base. Over 250" for the season, if memory serves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, poolz1 said: EPS looks good I think that looks nice, yes @Bob Chill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yep. Worst event in lifetime. 3". Forecast here was for 7 - 13". Sun out by 10AM. Wind-whipping blew so much snow on the ground that by the time it sublimated and/or blew onto paved surfaces and melted in the sun-light we had significantly less snow on the ground that afternoon than we started the day with. All while watching areas to the east get pounded all day long. Jeez, sounds familiar..... I lived just northeast of Baltimore and hammered by both storms. The snow depth was so high... I actually had to shovel a spot for my Golden to go to the bathroom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, yoda said: I think that looks nice, yes @Bob Chill? i would think that looks better than having that circle on the NY/PA border where it usually is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 i wish we were looking at the euro before the upgrade. I just don't have the same faith in it as in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I lived just northeast of Baltimore and hammered by both storms. The snow depth was so high... I actually had to shovel a spot for my Golden to go to the bathroom. Yep, my sister lives in that area as well. Heard all about and saw the pictures. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, wkd said: i wish we were looking at the euro before the upgrade. I just don't have the same faith in it as in the past. I think the euro handles these kind of systems better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I think that looks nice, yes @Bob Chill? A dozen big hits but a lot of spread still. Plenty of big misses (including the control) to keep us grounded. Huge jump from 0z though. No denying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A dozen big hits but a lot of spread still. Plenty of big misses (including the control) to keep us grounded. Huge jump from 0z though. No denying that. I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 A couple of BIG rainers with tucked solutions too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Take a look at the mid levels around MA/CT. Heh, the euro is beautiful here. We're one shift away from a really big storm and 2 shifts away from things I'd rather not talk about. The "h5 isn't good" talk is confusing me. I was salivating over what i saw at h5 before the surface plots came out. Can't judge from one frozen in time h5 panel. How the storm is evolving and things around it matter as well as how the h5 look got there. It closes off to our southwest. That's fine. Yea the track is further north then say 1996 or a few other classic KU storms but its south of say dec 09 or feb 10 2010 or the feb 2006 storm. It's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: A couple of BIG rainers with tucked solutions too.... Oh. That gets my attention. Big rainers for the city are usually our biggest bombs out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 In this range I think everyone would prefer for the Euro to support a further east solution than west......as we know these storms tend to trend west over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This goes back to the whole Atlantic vs. Pacific argument. Most people like to say of the Pac sucks we are toast. I disagree as long as we have an east based -NAO like that map is showing we are always in the game. We need systems to be forced under us. And that Greenland blocking is historically the easiest way for that to happen for us. Although over the past few years it just hasnt materialized. My thoughts exactly. PAC can be meh. I will take my chances with Atl blocking and ridging in the preferred places. I looked at the Kocin books and one thing that 9 out of 10 KU storms have is the Atl in our favor. There are a few with meh PAC, but almost all the biggies have the Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 25 minutes ago, usedtobe said: I think it interesting how similar the GFS and Euro are at 500 and how different the results. That's most of what I mentioned in my quick piece that may or may not end up being published. The two differences are where the low get going and whether a coastal trough sets up like on the Euro. Looking at the GFS 500, I was surprised that it did not give us anything except on Tuesday. The gfs goes ape with the cold push and blasts the front way east. I've seen it do that before and it's often wrong. The trough certainly argues for a more euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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