yoda Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's not a great pass at 500 for us...need that about 100 miles south or else there are going to be a lot of disappointed people. Better for it to pass along the I-64 corridor. Its passing through C VA... its fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Real nice @Always in Zugzwang Thank you! Every time I look at that, it's like the cars are almost letting out a groan under the weight of the snow...most still covered or blocked in from Feb. 5-6 Snowmageddon a few days prior! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's not a great pass at 500 for us...need that about 100 miles south or else there are going to be a lot of disappointed people. Better for it to pass along the I-64 corridor. Yeah? Looks decent to me but I'll take your word for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, poolz1 said: Yeah? Looks decent to me but I'll take your word for it. The big storms in the KU books that give the "classic" DC snow show the 500 energy transfer from CHO to OXB. This is broader and closer to DC itself...good for the climo areas but dicey for the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The Gefs Members that show hits flatten out the northern stream faster and let the southern stream stay cutoff. The 2nd S/W isn't digging into NE like the euro on P1 & P4, both hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The big storms in the KU books that give the "classic" DC snow show the 500 energy transfer from CHO to OXB. This is broader and closer to DC itself...good for the climo areas but dicey for the rest. But I don't think anyone in here is looking at this potential to be a KU level event. A possibly solid, moderate event, sure. And most are looking at the trends which have been favorable for the most part. I will agree, if we wanted a classic HECS you'd want the 500 low a bit more southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 23 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Same here, though I don't actually know the liquid equivalent I got where I'm at. I got the same amount of snow that you did...and it was Hugh Jass flakes nearly all day long piling up with whiteout conditions. My favorite storm ever. I actually ended up with somewhere between 25-30" but it was hard to tell with drifting. But a foot came on the back edge from those bands all through the day and it was barely any qpf. I melted the last 12" down to only .35". That storm had everything. The night before a convective band formed up here that put down a foot in only 4 hours. Heavy wet snow. Then a lull until the upper low sparked redevelopment then heavy fluffy snow all day. Was way more then forecasted here. When it was over the snow depth up here was like nothing I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's not a great pass at 500 for us...need that about 100 miles south or else there are going to be a lot of disappointed people. Better for it to pass along the I-64 corridor. I disagree in this case. Look at the ridging to our NE. If h5 closes off too early and too far SW it could back flow and rain on us... Kinda like what happens to SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 This was the ULL pass in Feb 2010. I remember it happening and thinking man I can't see. Ended that day with close to 40" snowpack from the two storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The euro is a mini version of the 1-2 punches we get sometimes. Like PD2, Jan 2011, and of course Feb 2010. First overunning sets up and snows. Then a lull before a wave turns into an organized coastal. That part is WAA followed by cold ULL fluff. Again, it's a mini version but the run verbatim reminds me very much of some of those longer duration storms that provide very memorable results. A tracker's dream in many ways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteouteburg Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: The euro is a mini version of the 1-2 punches we get sometimes. Like PD2, Jan 2011, and of course Feb 2010. First overunning sets up and snows. Then a lull before a wave turns into an organized coastal. That part is WAA followed by cold ULL fluff. Again, it's a mini version but the run verbatim reminds me very much of some of those longer duration storms that provide very memorable results. A tracker's dream in many ways... Would you mind providing a timeline when the snow starts and ends based on the latest model runs? Also is there any chance this becomes a Thursday - Friday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: The euro is a mini version of the 1-2 punches we get sometimes. Like PD2, Jan 2011, and of course Feb 2010. First overunning sets up and snows. Then a lull before a wave turns into an organized coastal. That part is WAA followed by cold ULL fluff. Again, it's a mini version but the run verbatim reminds me very much of some of those longer duration storms that provide very memorable results. A tracker's dream in many ways... Agreed... I also like how its 5-6 days away and not 9-10 days away (if it does come true) so it should be in the Euro's wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All upper level support man. I'm telling you...this run was like an inch away from an upper level fluff bomb.... I wrote something for CWG, not sure if it will be used because of how late it is in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 dont forget about 6am tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My favorite storm ever. I actually ended up with somewhere between 25-30" but it was hard to tell with drifting. But a foot came on the back edge from those bands all through the day and it was barely any qpf. I melted the last 12" down to only .35". That storm had everything. The night before a convective band formed up here that put down a foot in only 4 hours. Heavy wet snow. Then a lull until the upper low sparked redevelopment then heavy fluffy snow all day. Was way more then forecasted here. When it was over the snow depth up here was like nothing I've ever seen. Yup. I'm not sure if it was necessarily my favorite event that year (but close!)...but that one photo is my favorite. Where I'm at, we got maybe a couple inches the evening of the 9th, then sleet and freezing drizzle. I wasn't following a whole lot of what the upper levels were doing or what might be yet to come, and I recall going to bed thinking "oh my, this might be a bust!" Woke up the next day around 7AM and had to do a double-take, because it was a complete white-out. Very hard to measure. I got perhaps 10-12" as best I could estimate from the snow that fell on the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, usedtobe said: I wrote something for CWG, not sure if it will be used because of how late it is in the day. Could you link us up Wes? Its always great to see you post and write for CWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 EJ, look at the 850's here. It's pouring rain in OC during this panel. We need to be careful what we wish for. This isn't a blocked ULL trackin ENE. If things blow up too far south then we'll have mixing problems. No thank you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: This was the ULL pass in Feb 2010. I remember it happening and thinking man I can't see. Ended that day with close to 40" snowpack from the two storms we actually got screwed that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's not a great pass at 500 for us...need that about 100 miles south or else there are going to be a lot of disappointed people. Better for it to pass along the I-64 corridor. It digs to our SW then passes NE across our area. It's fine. If it got to that spot from the NW and was just closing off there I'd agree but this run is good at h5. The good snows start well to our southwest. It's not close to a miss on this run. I'm only analyzing this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: I wrote something for CWG, not sure if it will be used because of how late it is in the day. It's an interesting setup Wes. We can only hope the euro has it "mostly" right. I don't want any more amp to our south or I'll start worrying about ptype....too much of a good thing can turn into a lot of bad things... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Dont mean to junk up the thread with old storm stuff but since the 2nd feb 2010 storm is brought up here is a vid I took in our backyard. The only true blizzard conditions I have experienced. Ended up with 18" from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It digs to our SW then passes NE across our area. It's fine. If it got to that spot from the NW and was just closing off there I'd agree but this run is good at h5. The good snows start well to our southwest. It's not close to a miss on this run. I'm only analyzing this run. Okay I'll buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, whiteouteburg said: Would you mind providing a timeline when the snow starts and ends based on the latest model runs? Also is there any chance this becomes a Thursday - Friday event? Euro starts the snow overnight Tuesday and through the day Wednesday. Doesn't look like it would extend into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: dont forget about 6am tomorrow morning Have my fingers crossed that I get something tomorrow am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: dont forget about 6am tomorrow morning Thanks Ji. Since I will miss next week its fun to see that. we could see some flurries out of that perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It digs to our SW then passes NE across our area. It's fine. If it got to that spot from the NW and was just closing off there I'd agree but this run is good at h5. The good snows start well to our southwest. It's not close to a miss on this run. I'm only analyzing this run. Take a look at the mid levels around MA/CT. Heh, the euro is beautiful here. We're one shift away from a really big storm and 2 shifts away from things I'd rather not talk about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: we actually got screwed that storm Lol I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Take a look at the mid levels around MA/CT. Heh, the euro is beautiful here. We're one shift away from a really big storm and 2 shifts away from things I'd rather not talk about. Could you lay out what we want to happen to get a better result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's an interesting setup Wes. We can only hope the euro has it "mostly" right. I don't want any more amp to our south or I'll start worrying about ptype....too much of a good thing can turn into a lot of bad things... I think it interesting how similar the GFS and Euro are at 500 and how different the results. That's most of what I mentioned in my quick piece that may or may not end up being published. The two differences are where the low get going and whether a coastal trough sets up like on the Euro. Looking at the GFS 500, I was surprised that it did not give us anything except on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Could you lay out what we want to happen to get a better result? Identical track and progression with what the euro just put out but a more developed coastal as it passes our latitude so we get hit hard with the comma/CCB. That and more overrunning in advance. Add those 2 things and we all get 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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