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January Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

All upper level support man. I'm telling you...this run was like an inch away from an upper level fluff bomb....

if you want textbook 500 level of where it needs to be for us to get snow look no further than this euro run

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The backside snow would be high ratio even if light qpf. My FAVORITE type of synoptic snow is ALWAYS on the back side of h5 being closed off. Great freekin run. 

Yep. I got about a foot from only .35 qpf on the backside of the feb 10 2010 storm. It's the best place to be. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yep. I got about a foot from only .35 qpf on the backside of the feb 10 2010 storm. It's the best place to be. 

these are the kinds of storms the euro gets its reputation from....i am getting excited but still very pessmisitc because it dosent snow here

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yep. I got about a foot from only .35 qpf on the backside of the feb 10 2010 storm. It's the best place to be. 

Same here, though I don't actually know the liquid equivalent I got where I'm at.  I got the same amount of snow that you did...and it was Hugh Jass flakes nearly all day long piling up with whiteout conditions.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Kuchera...this might actually be better for a change. Bobs right the ratios under the h5 low would be really high. 

IMG_3650.thumb.PNG.172b0420970e9f6e309105423af790ce.PNG

PSU, gotta echo what you and Bob are tooting regarding the h5 snow, with that closed presentation we’d do very well with the fluff factor. The UL dynamics on the backside would pile it up quickly for us. For those of us that had the privilege of enjoying the latter half of the the 2/10/10 event, great high ratio fluff with awesome dynamics and excellent rates. 

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

This is a long duration event, which is a red flag for me. It really does have decent upside assuming the Euro has the basic idea correct. Start at this link and then flip through the hours.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/significant-weather/20180117-0600z.html

It's really quite beautiful.   Also reminds me of 2/10/10 because it would be raining in boston if the Euro is right. 

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If you look at current guidance as whole...this is what is showing up:

- Discrete northern stream bowling ball missing to the north is completely gone now. We can pretty much rule that out

- All guidance sets up a light overunning event before the good stuff "could' happen in the upper levels

- All guidance had trended towards at least a modest moisture tap from the gulf 

- All guidance is slowing down the dig and flow is very slow (this gives some confidence to ops beyond d4)

- We can get snow multiple different ways instead on relying on everything hitting right at the perfect time

- It's fair to say that the odds of getting at least some snow out of this are higher than a coin flip

- There is a lot of upside potential if it comes together right

 

Did I miss anything?

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Favorite storm in the  past 10 years 

I know it's (way?) off topic perhaps, but since it's been mentioned in context of what the Euro shows for next week's potential, here you go:  This is perhaps my favorite photo that I took during the 2009-10 winter.  Taken on Feb. 10, during the cold powder bomb.

Feb_9-10_2010_snow3.thumb.jpg.562b99b2e3560ea6be778988d4883d50.jpg

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

If this can pan out region wide, it sure would be a sig moral booster.

With this panel here you would think this has great upside potential.

ecmwf_z500_vort_ma_24.thumb.png.9ce54dd171a66fcf062c33504d848d2c.png

That's not a great pass at 500 for us...need that about 100 miles south or else there are going to be a lot of disappointed people.  Better for it to pass along the I-64 corridor.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If you look at current guidance as whole...this is what is showing up:

- Discrete northern stream bowling ball missing to the north is completely gone now. We can pretty much rule that out

- All guidance sets up a light overunning event before the good stuff "could' happen in the upper levels

- All guidance had trended towards at least a modest moisture tap from the gulf 

- All guidance is slowing down the dig and flow is very slow (this gives some confidence to ops beyond d4)

- We can get snow multiple different ways instead on relying on everything hitting right at the perfect time

- It's fair to say that the odds of getting at least some snow out of this are higher than a coin flip

- There is a lot of upside potential if it comes together right

 

Did I miss anything?

 

I think that more or less sums it up well, and states what we need.  Hopefully this will continue and not go *poof* on us (unless the "poof" is the sound of heavy fluffy snow falling!).

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