Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, PCT_ATC said: Oh you guys.. Im not fallin for it this time! anything outside of 48 hours is pure fantasy land this winter. There's nothing to fall for. We're 4-6 days out with something worth watching. That's all there is to it. If it pans out then great. If it goes poof then that's just how we roll sometimes. At least the way the models are going with this is something that can work well here. I hated the initial looks with the northern stream bowling ball. I've seen many of those go down the tubes. So many that I didn't even get excited. At least now there's reason to "believe" it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's nothing to fall for. We're 4-6 days out with something worth watching. That's all there is to it. If it pans out then great. If it goes poof then that's just how we roll sometimes. At least the way the models are going with this is something that can work well here. I hated the initial looks with the northern stream bowling ball. I've seen many of those go down the tubes. So many that I didn't even get excited. At least now there's reason to "believe" it's possible. Plus with a pattern change, and if things start slowing down, we should also consider that the models MAY start doing a little better than they have so far this year in the 4-7 day range. Going with recency bias may not be a slam dunk if we aren't factoring in a pattern shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Bro, it's 65/62 outside. It's not happening. Usual places do good, high terrain west of the Blue Ridge. Wow...umm..nope I just can't. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, cae said: Here are the last five runs for the GEFS average snow depth a week from now. There were some hints at 00z and 06z, but it's a lot different now. It's not too surprising, given how the GEFS tend to follow the op. I'd like to see a similar jump on the EPS or GEPS. ETA: Looking a this again, I feel bad for the I81 crew. Congrats to the usual suspects this winter. And condolences to the usuals, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Plus with a pattern change, and if things start slowing down, we should also consider that the models MAY start doing a little better than they have so far this year in the 4-7 day range. Going with recency bias may not be a slam dunk if we aren't factoring in a pattern shift. I keep it pretty simple. We're either in a shutout pattern or we're not. They are both easy to spot. Yea, we all want a perfect set of teleconnections and a juicey shortwave attacking cold from the southwest but that stuff only happens once in a while. If that's someone's bar for a good pattern then they need to step away from their computer 95-100% of the time every year. I'm just thankful we're in the game. When the flip in the pac showed up it really did look like a shutout pattern. That has completely changed. Do I think snow will come easy how things look? No, absolutely not. On the other hand I don't see any signs of an extended shutout pattern anymore. Give us enough chances and things will break our way eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Wow...umm..nope I just can't. Wow He can't even get bad posts right anymore and that's saying something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I keep it pretty simple. We're either in a shutout pattern or we're not. They are both easy to spot. Yea, we all want a perfect set of teleconnections and a juice shortwave attacking cold from the southwest but that stuff only happens once in a while. If that's someone's bar for a good pattern then they need to step away from their computer 95-100% of the time every year. I'm just thankful we're in the game. When the flip in the pac showed up it really did look like a shutout pattern. That has completely changed. Do I think snow will come easy how things look? No, absolutely not. On the other hand I don't see any signs of an extended shutout pattern anymore. Give us enough chances and things will break our way eventually. Definitely -- the big win in the last week or so is going from complete shutout in prime climo to at least some chances coming along. If we're going to have a mixed bag scenario, now's definitely the time we have the best shot at having enough default climo-level cold to make something work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I don't want any model to show a hit yet just a slight improvement with each run hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2018011212&fh=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2018011212&fh=120 That certainly looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2018011212&fh=120 Normally the position of that NS high would be fine for us to get clobbered, but somehow the stupid clipper is in the way, it's forcing the LLJ further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Euro still trending towards slowing down the southern piece and amplifying to our south. It's going to be a while before models converge on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Normally the position of that NS high would be fine for us to get clobbered, but somehow the stupid clipper is in the way, it's forcing the LLJ further east. whenever I see you have posted, I always know it's bad news.....seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'm having a real hard time believing this wouldn't be good, but I don't have the precip panels yet https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018011212&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=116 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: whenever I see you have posted, I always know it's bad news.....seriously I swear I was thinking the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Still a legit light event. The trend continues towards a big wave forming to our south. We're close to a big event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 EURO is a good hit... 3-4" and still snowing for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: I'm having a real hard time believing this wouldn't be good, but I don't have the precip panels yet https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018011212&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=116 the 500mb seemed to be better at 12z then 0z...but dont have any precip panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I LOVE the h5. Waiting on the surface panels to update but we should get something from that and just from that h5 this has good upside. Gfs and euro now agree on the general look at h5. Need the surface to come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Still a legit light event. The trend continues towards a big wave forming to our south. We're close to a big event... 1-2 would be a moral booster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: I'm having a real hard time believing this wouldn't be good, but I don't have the precip panels yet https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018011212&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=116 It's good mitch. Warning level snow through the whole region. You and me would get 5-7" depending on ratios....heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 It's a good hit. Better then 0z. Waiting on all the panels to finish to get final numbers but it's a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Save a lot of typing here... great run with big upside... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's good mitch. Warning level snow through the whole region. You and me would get 5-7" depending on ratios....heh Yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy naked in the streetssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: 1-2 feet would be a moral booster Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's good mitch. Warning level snow through the whole region. You and me would get 5-7" depending on ratios....heh Of course it’s good. Fook me. Damn job. h5 looks quite decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The backside snow would be high ratio even if light qpf. My FAVORITE type of synoptic snow is ALWAYS on the back side of h5 being closed off. Great freekin run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks to close off sooner this run. It's in the right spot. Closed 500mb low over KY would work finefor a KU storm. 1028mb pressure in Boston looks fine for a KU storm. We're missing a 1004mb low over WV and another one forming on the Carolina coast, because moisture return is non existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Amped.....go to your room Vice Regent will let you know when you can come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro still trending towards slowing down the southern piece and amplifying to our south. It's going to be a while before models converge on this one... This has legit mecs upside potential. Doesn't mean it comes together but just a bit more amped on that wave and we get a 6-12" storm. It's a good run and was so close to even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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