pasnownut Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This and even the eps are 2 prime examples why I've tried not to look past 10 days on the ens means this year. All 3 major ens families now have backed off the warmish episode that many folks were touting over the next 10 days, taking us to mid January. Forget about the super lr post day 10. Just looking thru 240 the look is not bad. PNA ridge out west, trof in the east, southern stream activity, storm chances, active ns flow, -ao. As we approach day 10 the trof over the Aleutian Islands is trying to pump a ridge out ahead of it connecting with the ao. What happens post 240 hrs this year anyway really is a crapshoot. I dont know where we can find verification numbers on this but Im fairly certain the ens are performing poorer than normal years in the 11-15 day range this year. I've also noticed the eps and gefs have often tried to mirror one another at this range several times since mid November with the GEPS showing different tenneconnection anomalies. Maybe the major warmup is real. But the next 10 days were progged to be a crud pattern 11 days ago and now the gloom and doom teleconnections have been muted, we have a +pna, trof in the east, and cold air is still nearby with any 'warmth' over the next 10 days muted from prior progs and also transient. If you showed me days 8-10 on the current ens and days 11+ didn't exist, I think we would be assuming a reload was coming to bolster the pattern. Im just not buying the extreme persistent AN+ Eastern US pattern being touted past day 10. Again, Im not saying it wont happen. I actually lean towards the AN look. I just feel the ens are too gung ho and the pattern reload will be faster and more muted than being shown. Hopefully we step back from the extreme look over the next several runs. Enjoying the discussion! I’ve followed you a long time .... You’ve come a long way...(not just cause I generally agree, but keep it up man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We used to have a rule around here that the gfs was best with the NS and the euro best with the SS. Then they both got "upgraded" and blurred everything. The gfs has been screwey with precip during synoptic events but it definitely seems better to me in the mid range with h5 this winter. I kinda liked what I saw at h5 on the 18z gfs so I'll hug that no problem. I like the changes for the next weekend system. There's more seperation between the lead wave on Thursday and the storm on Saturday. Allows the cold to bleed south more before the Saturday system. It' not there yet but it's close. There's 1045 high parked up in Canada also. A lot to like about the set up right now. Probably will be different in 6 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We used to have a rule around here that the gfs was best with the NS and the euro best with the SS. Then they both got "upgraded" and blurred everything. The gfs has been screwey with precip during synoptic events but it definitely seems better to me in the mid range with h5 this winter. I kinda liked what I saw at h5 on the 18z gfs so I'll hug that no problem. Yeah I learned that rule a few moons ago. I also have to say that like some, I don’t get the bashing of the home team model and the way the Euro has performed...it would suck to b DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 At least the gfs moved towards instead of away from some winter wx here on Monday. Precip moves in faster and the northern stream pressing more so the northern tier is still in the game for some snow/sleet. If the gfs is just a few degrees too warm then everyone is in the game for some ice. Looks more like the cmc than the euro. That's for sure. Go North America! Booo Europe!Regarding next weekend, gfs took on a nice look at 500mb. Better confluence, suddenly the hp over ME is trending stronger (1045 now?), better cad look, miller b transferring farther s this run. Not there 'yet' but getting a better look slowly but surely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 @WxUSAF That Ventrice tweet looks a lot like the weeklies in Feb. Weeklies weren't as sweet but the same general premise with the epo returning and higher heights over the pole. I believe the 2 heavyweights with the weeklies are the mjo and enso so it makes sense. Ralph, I'm not cancelling winter like everyone is trying to pigeon hole me into. I believe that we lose the epo and go warm with AN heights in the east. For how long is a burning question. I respectfully disagree that it's too far out there to take seriously. Ens picked up on a breakdown of the uber cold after this weekend but they were too aggressive. We all agreed on that. The next 10 days is a "step up" pattern to a warmer regime for not just the east but all of North America. We don't flip from an icebox overnight just like we don't go from a continental torch to an icebox. It's a big process. The next 10 days are going to be pretty warm compared to the last 10 days. Sure, cold fronts will come and we'll get chilly. Nobody said we weren't. Next week is going to warm up across the country in general. Beyond that might get even warmer. Way out there in time so nothing is locked in but by wed-thurs next week there are going to be a lot of posts about how nice it feels even if its "only" 50 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: How can you put those 2 in the same post. Lol HM really, really knows his stuff. Yeah to your point prob not on same parralel as Hm has really turned up the whick (to a point that I almost can’t comprehend). Just being honest. He is lights out. A+ material while I can’t grade them side by side I understand what Cosgrove throws out right or wrong. Just like here I follow a bunch of folks to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @WxUSAF That Ventrice tweet looks a lot like the weeklies in Feb. Weeklies weren't as sweet but the same general premise with the epo returning and higher heights over the pole. I believe the 2 heavyweights with the weeklies are the mjo and enso so it makes sense. Ralph, I'm not cancelling winter like everyone is trying to pigeon hole me into. I believe that we lose the epo and go warm with AN heights in the east. For how long is a burning question. I respectfully disagree that it's too far out there to take seriously. Ens picked up on a breakdown of the uber cold after this weekend but they were too aggressive. We all agreed on that. The next 10 days is a "step up" pattern to a warmer regime for not just the east but all of North America. We don't flip from an icebox overnight just like we don't go from a continental torch to an icebox. It's a big process. The next 10 days are going to be pretty warm compared to the last 10 days. Sure, cold fronts will come and we'll get chilly. Nobody said we weren't. Next week is going to warm up across the country in general. Beyond that might get even warmer. Way out there in time so nothing is locked in but by wed-thurs next week there are going to be a lot of posts about how nice it feels even if its "only" 50 degrees. Hopefully during our step up period next week from ice box to normal cold we can score something before the torch comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Hopefully during our step up period next week from ice box to normal cold we can score something before the torch comes. We certainly could but it's going to take a lot of luck. There's no atlantic blocking so even though the gfs looked close next weekend, what I see is a cold hp running for the hills. There's a brief 24-48 hour window for a low to run the gauntlet and our area be on the winning side. If I saw confluence/cold high AND a block to hold the high in place I would think different. Not saying it can't break right because it can but from this far out and how the state of the Atlantic looks, my money is on any amplified system running west of us. If timing looks good in 5-6 days we can start parsing details. Would be fitting to time something in a hostile pattern after wasting 2 straight weeks of cold. That's kinda how we roll. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Ralph, I'm not cancelling winter like everyone is trying to pigeon hole me into. Trust me, I know you didnt and arent cancelling winter. I've read you enough to realize you are just pointing out the overwhelming evidence for an AN regime you are seeing in the LR. Im just playing devil's advocate by also presenting facts as to why I think that day 11-15+ period is overdone and even potentially completely off. Not about who is right, who is wrong, etc. Just a healthy discussion. Glad there is someone to share my wx thoughts with.....these ideas tend to fall on deaf ears with my wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We certainly could but it's going to take a lot of luck. There's no atlantic blocking so even though the gfs looked close next weekend, what I see is a cold hp running for the hills. There's a brief 24-48 hour window for a low to run the gauntlet and our area be on the winning side. If I saw confluence/cold high AND a block to hold the high in place I would think different. Not saying it can't break right because it can but from this far out and how the state of the Atlantic looks, my money is on any amplified system running west of us. If timing looks good in 5-6 days we can start parsing details. Would be fitting to time something in a hostile pattern after wasting 2 straight weeks of cold. That's kinda how we roll. Lol I think we’re in the game until the 16th even if it averages AN starting Monday or Tuesday. Then we’re out for probably several days at least. After that who knows but I bet by the 10th-14th we’ll have good idea if the torch is temporary or long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Looks like my kind of forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 44 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Looks like my kind of forecast Looks like somebody is flipping us the bird in that bottom map. Or telling JI he's number 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 This made me chuckle. Today's super ensemble analogs. I think there is every year on there that we have all mentioned as fearing as this winter becoming. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Looks like somebody is flipping us the bird in that bottom map. Or telling JI he's number 1. How often is anything right in the LR. That map say we basically punt January. Along with most everyone else across the nation. The rubber band is snapping back if that's correct. At least there won't be a need to stay up late for model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: This made me chuckle. Today's super ensemble analogs. I think there is every year on there that we have all mentioned as fearing as this winter becoming. Lol The super ensemble analogs are about the dumbest thing I’ve seen on this forum aside from Ji and the HURRRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 GFS has a nasty ice/sleet storm for the 12/14th period. A step in the right direction for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 GFS has a nasty ice/sleet storm for the 12/14th period. A step in the right direction for sure. First threat ive felt good about since those crazy 60 huge gfs snow runsSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Everyone's frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS has a nasty ice/sleet storm for the 12/14th period. A step in the right direction for sure. If you like ice, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 This made me chuckle. Today's super ensemble analogs. I think there is every year on there that we have all mentioned as fearing as this winter becoming. LolWhen you have a trough in west and se ridge...our favorite analogs arnt going to show upSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Clueless said: If you like ice, that is. I mean, it did end as a brief period of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GFS has a nasty ice/sleet storm for the 12/14th period. A step in the right direction for sure. Talk about threading the needle ..lol. Maybe we can luck into something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 One thing I have learned the hard way - is never wish for vodka cold. Because when that happens, places like Charleston SC get 4 inches of snow while we grovel for an inch. I'll take normal cold, I'll struggle with the rain/snow line and be happy with 4 inches of slush. At least HoCo/MoCo and Rockville MD can get 12 inches in those setups. This sorry excuse for a snowstorm that we just got foisted upon us happened because there was just too damn much cold air. It CAN get too cold here, and the snow ends up happening very far to the southeast, in SC and also along the coast. Back to normal cold, 40/25 conditions and I'll straddle the R/S line, I take what I can get and most of the subforum can get deep snow which is very very well deserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 I love the TT map lol... Wes gets next to nothing and Ji gets 15 inches And yes, I know it's a snow/sleet map... and that it's a fantasy map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 CMC has a little rain to snow deal on the 14th... 1 to 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Just now, yoda said: I love the TT map lol... Wes gets nothing and Ji gets 15 inches And yes, I know it's a snow/sleet map Too bad TT doesn't show freezing rain maps. It's pretty incredible too The setup for a decent snow event is asking for a big much, but maybe we could manage a quick 4-6" burst of snow before ice or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Gfs is trending the same way the seasonal trend is. Just hope by the time it gets here it's not some weak strung out wave along the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 Pretty much an Apps runner on the 00z Euro... then cold air returns it appears as the run comes to an end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 I'll worry about the forecast for next weekend once we get past Monday's mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2018 Share Posted January 6, 2018 6z GFS trended better as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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