psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: i mean this is no joke lol That argues this has room to come northwest. I'm ok with the low being a bit too far off the NC coast at 132 hours. We've done this before. Better than needing a miller b to trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GGEM might suck for next week but another run with a flexed -AO. I can extrapolate a d11 overrunning storm right here...easy peasy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: GGEM might suck for next week but another run with a flexed -AO. I can extrapolate a d11 storm right here...easy peasy... GFS has a similar -AO/NAO around that time, though it's more amplified with the trough in the middle of the country so on Jan. 21 we're in the warm air. But the take-away I got was more ridging near the West Coast and up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GGEM might suck for next week but another run with a flexed -AO. I can extrapolate a d11 overrunning storm right here...easy peasy... I feel kind of blessed to be tracking a storm next week based on what the EPS gave us 9 days ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Uh oh, Wes agrees with the weenies....gettin real now... And suddenly the bands all back together. Guess a closed low over VA in mid January will do that. The surface is out of sync this run. And things are trending so there is no way to know where this ends. But the trends are the way we want. And can't sleep on it when now both the gfs and euro have shown a closed h5 low passing just under us. Said last night this is our best chance so far. I'm doubling down now. Long way to go and can still fail but I feel better about our chances on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 If the trends in the long range continue our torch could turn into multiple tracking threats. There will be warm days in there but vorts will also get forced under us if that blocking is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: If the trends in the long range continue our torch could turn into multiple tracking threats. There will be warm days in there but vorts will also get forced under us if that blocking is real. this is much better than mitnicks wish to go into a 2 week torch in the heart of winter with the hope to reshuffle the deck lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: this is much better than mitnicks wish to go into a 2 week torch in the heart of winter with the hope to reshuffle the deck lol You know I agree with you on this but I'm not starting that back up again. He feels the way he feels. We both said our peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: this is much better than mitnicks wish to go into a 2 week torch in the heart of winter with the hope to reshuffle the deck lol I agree, unless everything continues to fail. There's been a pattern change. That's the most important fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I agree, unless everything continues to fail. There's been a pattern change. That's the most important fact. The pattern seems to have changed before the Jan 4 bomb. We missed out but that definitely marked a more amplified pattern setting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I'm not sure if this was what PSU was showing before (I couldn't see the image), but here's the trend over the last 5 GFS runs. There's a similar trend at H5, but I like the evolution of the position of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern seems to have changed before the Jan 4 bomb. We missed out but that definitely marked a more amplified pattern setting in. Yep, we're going from bone dry to active Pac and a perfectly timed -AO. The -AO can't solve all the problems but it can at least keep us out of a shutout pattern. If the +epo timed with a +AO then we could pretty much shut it down around here and break out the golf clubs and lawn mowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: I'm not sure if this was what PSU was showing before (I couldn't see the image), but here's the trend over the last 5 GFS runs. There's a similar trend at H5, but I like the evolution of the position of the surface low. That does appear to be 'backing in', nice trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 33 minutes ago, usedtobe said: The 500 h forecast from both the GFS and Euro have my attention. As others have said, the GFS despite not giving us any meaningful snow is a good run amd very close to what we want. I really like it when the 500 h forecast gets your attention.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: And suddenly the bands all back together. Guess a closed low over VA in mid January will do that. The surface is out of sync this run. And things are trending so there is no way to know where this ends. But the trends are the way we want. And can't sleep on it when now both the gfs and euro have shown a closed h5 low passing just under us. Said last night this is our best chance so far. I'm doubling down now. Long way to go and can still fail but I feel better about our chances on this one. We are gonna get an epic euro run within the next 3 runs. Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The pattern seems to have changed before the Jan 4 bomb. We missed out but that definitely marked a more amplified pattern setting in. I see the bomb as more of the same since we missed substantial precip maintaining the overall dryness along with the cold. I guess you could find somewhere on the globe where the pattern change was put into motion by the time the bomb passed us by, but for the DCA/BWI metro region, it was more of the same. Personally, I look at yesterday as the start of our pattern change in sensible terms, but it really doesn't matter. Like Bob said, we're out of that cold-dry, fast flow. Now if we fail, at least we can say it's for different reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Der Vaterlands bestest model gives us a 1-3”/2-4” event but haven’t seen enough panels to tell how it gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Der Vaterlands bestest model gives us a 1-3”/2-4” event but haven’t seen enough panels to tell how it gets there. Backs in from the Reich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 e4 and e11 will be our GEFS members of choice today friends. Ooohhhh baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GEFS upped the ante with both the overunning prospects and the trailing coastal. Solid hit in NC that was mostly non-existent with the 6z run. This "event" keeps looking better as leads shorten. This gif says it all. VERY different than all previous runs. This whole thing is evolving so who knows where it ends up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I see the bomb as more of the same since we missed substantial precip maintaining the overall dryness along with the cold. I guess you could find somewhere on the globe where the pattern change was put into motion by the time the bomb passed us by, but for the DCA/BWI metro region, it was more of the same. Personally, I look at yesterday as the start of our pattern change in sensible terms, but it really doesn't matter. Like Bob said, we're out of that cold-dry, fast flow. Now if we fail, at least we can say it's for different reasons. I think we view patterns differently. I look large scale and you focus local. When storms are missing by 500 miles that's pattern. When their missing by 50 miles that's bad luck. A cow could fart in the wrong direction and things shift 50 miles. It's just chaos imo. But when the whole east was bone dry that was definitely a pattern problem. But this is all perception not right or wrong so there is no need to fight over it we just have different pov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: No doubt... A couple bombs in the mix This was a breakthrough GEFS run. Even though the good hits are a small minority, they simply didn't exist until today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Heh, for a crappy pac...this panel sure shows a way to overcome it...yea...I'm good with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: No doubt... A couple bombs in the mix Those two big dogs are also the slowest in the mix. Like late D6/early D7 events. Not surprising, but kind of annoying. Actually e4 is like three different events: Tuesday cold front, lead wave late Wednesday/early Thursday, and then late Thursday crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This was a breakthrough GEFS run. Even though the good hits are a small minority, they simply didn't exist until today. Most, or nearly all, give us some snow which is quite nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 fwiw, Ukie isn't playing ball has strictly northern stream event with a little better than an inch for BWI and Balt metro, then increasing amounts to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This was a breakthrough GEFS run. Even though the good hits are a small minority, they simply didn't exist until today. Here are the last five runs for the GEFS average snow depth a week from now. There were some hints at 00z and 06z, but it's a lot different now. It's not too surprising, given how the GEFS tend to follow the op. I'd like to see a similar jump on the EPS or GEPS. ETA: Looking a this again, I feel bad for the I81 crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Oh you guys.. Im not fallin for it this time! anything outside of 48 hours is pure fantasy land this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 After reading the last two pages, I’m pretty excited to see what the 12z Fake King brings us. Dilly dilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, PCT_ATC said: Oh you guys.. Im not fallin for it this time! anything outside of 48 hours is pure fantasy land this winter. No one is putting out snow boots on yet. Just acknowledging this has become a threat. It might fail. But it's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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