Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: lol too bad it dries up It's not quite what we want but it's easy to see what the gfs is trying to do.... I'm totally good with the run. It's like 2 small shifts away from a wave running the boundary overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: turns into a dry frontal passage that's sort of my concern. looks like a front. we may need some kind of a surface low to pop somewhere south of us...I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's not quite what we want but it's easy to see what the gfs is trying to do.... I'm totally good with the run. It's like 2 small shifts away from a wave running the boundary overhead. It’s a clear move toward the euro solution. No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's not quite what we want but it's easy to see what the gfs is trying to do.... I'm totally good with the run. It's like 2 small shifts away from a wave running the boundary overhead. understatement of the year contender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 There are changes for the better this run compared to the last 4. I’d say it’s a lot closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 If you want to find a reason that the GFS sucks it's easy. If you want to see a reason that it's actually a really good run then you need to step away from the surface panels and look what's happening @ 18k feet overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: turns into a dry frontal passage That's not it. The stuff going on to our south is what to watch. I don't think this runs gonna do it but it's closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 vort needs to pinch off to get that precip up to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That's not it. The stuff going on to our south is what to watch. I don't think this runs gonna do it but it's closer. it does turn into a dry front, but the GFS just takes its time getting the vort involved yes, it's a decent run and at least encouraging that the Euro wasn't on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you want to find a reason that the GFS sucks it's easy. If you want to see a reason that it's actually a really good run then you need to step away from the surface panels and look what's happening @ 18k feet overhead. 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That's not it. The stuff going on to our south is what to watch. I don't think this runs gonna do it but it's closer. You're (both) referring to the energy to the south, along the MS/AL border, correct? If so, then yes...that's definitely farther west ("hung back") more than previous runs, and it's more separated from the northern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 a few more trends like that.....and we will have a 6-12 inch snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: You're (both) referring to the energy to the south, along the MS/AL border, correct? If so, then yes...that's definitely farther west ("hung back") more than previous runs, and it's more separated from the northern stream energy. It's the entire progression. It's morphing completely away from a northern stream bowling ball to a crawling + tilt trough that sloooowly turns neutral then neg to our south. The entire setup is basically completely different than what we first thought it was going to be. And the trend has been to a much better chance at a real event here. The ultimate solution is a slow moving overrunning event followed by an organized wave. Ji just said it perfectly....not far from a 6-12" event that stretches out over 48 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I can't remember a winter when the shore and tidewater areas were ground zero for so many storms....I'm not saying the GFS is right, but those areas have had a magnet when it comes to snow this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The GFS over squashes the southern disturbance between hours 105-120 or so. That cold push across TN/MS/AL/GA likely won’t be as strong as the GFS advertises. So that whole setup will evolve more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS has really big changes at H5 even from last run. Pretty massive step towards a really, really interesting solution. I don't know s**t about this stuff, but even I can see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS took a step towards where the GGEM was last night, with dry air in the SE choking off the overrunning moisture before it can get to us. Congrats NC. GGEM took a step toward the GFS and cut back on the dry air, but not by enough. If the 00z Euro was the best of both worlds, then the 12z GGEM is the worst. Too dry for the overrunning event, and then the coastal forms too far north to have much of an impact here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Canadian very similar to GFS, but can't get the coastal going in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's the entire progression. It's morphing completely away from a northern stream bowling ball to a crawling + tilt trough that sloooowly turns neutral then neg to our south. The entire setup is basically completely different than what we first thought it was going to be. And the trend has been to a much better chance at a real event here. The ultimate solution is a slow moving overrunning event followed by an organized wave. Ji just said it perfectly....not far from a 6-12" event that stretches out over 48 hours... OK, I flipped back through more than a couple or three cycles (shoulda done that before, haha!), and see exactly what you're talking about. I had only mentioned part of the idea, but now looking farther back than yesterday it's very clear how the bowling ball idea changes into something totally different as you and PSU were mentioning. That is getting close to...something. Whether it can work out, who knows, but at least it's still got time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS over squashes the southern disturbance between hours 105-120 or so. That cold push across TN/MS/AL/GA likely won’t be as strong as the GFS advertises. So that whole setup will evolve more amplified My thinking. I'm excited because when this looked like an all northern steam miller b that was a fail waiting to happen here. This setup is a way we often win. Doesn't mean we will this time but the trends we're rooting for now actually play along with typical bias error instead of needing things that fly in the face of typical errors. I'm way more optimistic where we are now then 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Canadian very similar to GFS, but can't get the coastal going in time its really nothing close the gfs but the GGEM is the most progressive model according to weenie rule 4331 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 i mean this is no joke lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: its really nothing close the gfs but the GGEM is the most progressive model according to weenie rule 4331 They diverge around hour 120. Up to then they're similar though. After 120 the GFS looks at lot more like the 00z Euro, except it sends the surface low OTS instead of up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: its really nothing close the gfs but the GGEM is the most progressive model according to weenie rule 4331 sure it is....it brings the front through dry for us then gets a coastal going, but further east than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Last 4 runs of the gfs. Same time. Speaks for itself, you can see where it's heading. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/a7c71749-a8b7-467e-9f1d-786f7c63f969 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Last 4 runs of the gfs. Same time. Speaks for itself, you can see where it's heading. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/a7c71749-a8b7-467e-9f1d-786f7c63f969 many of our great storms started off as central NC/Southern Virgnia storms. Even the blizzard of 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 the GGEM always gives us snow....except when were hoping it actually does(like to support the GFS or Euro). Maybe its a good thing because the GGEM giving us snow isnt really working out in winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The 500 h forecast from both the GFS and Euro have my attention. As others have said, the GFS despite not giving us any meaningful snow is a good run amd very close to what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: The 500 h forecast from both the GFS and Euro have my attention. As others have said, the GFS despite not giving us any meaningful snow is a good run amd very close to what we want. Uh oh, Wes agrees with the weenies....gettin real now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 I’d expect some solid hits in the GEFS assuming the Op isn’t the biggest outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: i mean this is no joke lol That argues this has room to come northwest. I'm ok with the low being a bit too far off the NC coast at 132 hours. We've done this before. Better than needing a miller b to trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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