Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's east compare to the euro and yes as is a miss mostly after some light overrunning but it's closer then 0z. Look at the h5. 6z is closer to cutting off the southern vort in the trough. Much more focused on that. That's how the euro and the EPS/gefs members that give us good snow do it. It was another subtle step in the right direction. Still a lot of time. Yeah, see what you mean here. Not only is the 06Z trough closer to closing off, but the trough to the west in the Rockies is different too. At 00Z it appears to be more of a "kicker" forcing the downstream shortwave ridging and our trough of interest farther out east. At 06Z, that trough looks a bit weaker and oriented with a bit more positive tilt. For what it's worth, not sure it means a lot. It's all related I suppose so perhaps hard to say which is causing which. On a different subject, PSU...I hope you recover soon from your bronchitis! That's awful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Fyi, the Navgem looks very much like the Euro with the overrunning and popping a slp off VA Capes. But it misses to the east with the coastal precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Ensembles didn't noticeably improve in terms of snowfall. The GEPS took a big step back, and the GEFS is roughly where it was at 12z yesterday. It has a stronger signal for the overrunning snow though. The EPS looks like it took a small step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Ji said: Trust the gfs more Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Agreed. The Euro just folded to the GFS 36 hours out from an event. I dont know what is going on with the Euro right now. But it seems to be struggling for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Hmmm. The 12Z NAM has about 2 or 3 hours of snow out here tomorrow morning. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Agreed. The Euro just folded to the GFS 36 hours out from an event. I dont know what is going on with the Euro right now. But it seems to be struggling for some reason. its sad. Now when the euro shows snow...we just laugh and move on. if the GFS and Euro showed it...that would be a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, cae said: Ensembles didn't noticeably improve in terms of snowfall. The GEPS took a big step back, and the GEFS is roughly where it was at 12z yesterday. It has a stronger signal for the overrunning snow though. The EPS looks like it took a small step back. Inside of the eps was another step forward. D11-15 has consistently trimmed mean temps. Now they look just a couple of degrees AN but like I posted yesterday, mean temps and real time are quite different. After the cold shot next week we have another warm period. That is universally locked in. But it will be temporary again. The eps is near 50/50 split d12-15 between very warm or decent BN. The mean is a byproduct of timing. Eps is starting to pick up on increased snow chances d10-15 as well. Gfs just showed what I was trying to tell @BristowWx yesterday. I don't think we waste 2 weeks of prime climo without our chances. The pac is going to hurt and help. Hurt because downstream ridging at times will warm us up but help because we're going to have precip chances fairly regularly. Increased precip + HL blocking could combine in our favor. It's not a great pattern but not a shutout either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: its sad. Now when the euro shows snow...we just laugh and move on. if the GFS and Euro showed it...that would be a different story The thing is though...they both now show a period of overunning snow. Tracking something like that (and hoping it gets better at short leads) is a much higher odds proposition than praying a northern stream vort digs and develops enough to be kind here. That kind of deal sucks like 95% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Inside of the eps was another step forward. D11-15 has consistently trimmed mean temps. Now they look just a couple of degrees AN but like I posted yesterday, mean temps and real time are quite different. After the cold shot next week we have another warm period. That is universally locked in. But it will be temporary again. The eps is near 50/50 split d12-15 between very warm or decent BN. The mean is a byproduct of timing. Eps is starting to pick up on increased snow chances d10-15 as well. Gfs just showed what I was trying to tell @BristowWx yesterday. I don't think we waste 2 weeks of prime climo without our chances. The pac is going to hurt and help. Hurt because downstream ridging at times will warm us up but help because we're going to have precip chances fairly regularly. Increased precip + HL blocking could combine in our favor. It's not a great pattern but not a shutout either. I listened. It’s better than last year and we still have time. Good enough for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Fyi, the Navgem looks very much like the Euro with the overrunning and popping a slp off VA Capes. But it misses to the east with the coastal precip. Red flag imo. Most progressive bias model holds the trof back allowing for pinching off the southern lobe and is a decent amt West in longitude in relation to GFS/Euro. Eyebrow raised. Also, reminds me of December 9.....alot actually where we watch baroclinic or trailing front off the coast for a wave to develop. NAVGEM spotted it first at 6 day-ish lead and other guidance followed West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Red flag imo. Most progressive bias model holds the trof back allowing for pinching off the southern lobe and is a decent amt West in longitude in relation to GFS/Euro. Eyebrow raised. Also, reminds me of December 9.....alot actually where we watch baroclinic or trailing front off the coast for a wave to develop. NAVGEM spotted it first at 6 day-ish lead and other guidance followed West. So “red flag” is good in this instance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Yeah NAM just said hi leesburg have almost an inch of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: So “red flag” is good in this instance? Looks like everything wants to keep slowing things down. That can only help us here. It would suck if we had a good chance at getting the shortwave/ULL under us but since that's unlikely then slowing down the progress opens the door for a different way of getting something without relying on a synoptic bomb (or firecracker in this case). Even the GEFS from 0z to 6z hit the brakes a little. Ultimately, we want what the euro showed + a wave running overhead. Euro had the wave but it was offshore. Keep slowing it down and it runs on top of us. My guess is we do get an event out of this. Probably on the small side (1-3"). But there's upside depending on how everything progresses. Of course there's downside too...we all know what the downside is...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 To bad that counter-clockwise spin east of FL and moisture trying to head NW-ward from the Bahamas are non-players. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 So “red flag” is good in this instance? Yeah, see what Bob said. I dont see why this cant slow more and be nearer the coast with the WAR strengthening at the right time as well as other HL ridging showing up. It all appears transient but as others have noted, well-timed blocky features in this pattern is how we can end up scoring something. Eta: the WAR ridging is imminent I should add.....just need it to hold and not completely fizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: So “red flag” is good in this instance? Yeah, see what Bob said. I dont see why this cant slow more and be nearer the coast with the WAR strengthening at the right time as well as other HL ridging showing up. It all appears transient but as others have noted, well-timed blocky features in this pattern is how we can end up scoring something. Exactly. This trend gif shows visually what we are rooting for. It's a 6 run gif and it shows how the vort/energy was initially completely contained in the northern stream. That's no bueno this far south. The last 3 runs are strengthening the gulf connection because the shortwave is slowing down and allowing the tap. There's no reason the tap can't contain an embedded wave of deeper moisture and even weak coastal support right? It's becoming less of a longshot and more of consensus. It can all go poof still because we're still out @ d5 leads but once we get to day 3 or so, if the connection is still there and all models are running a strip of overrunning through here then it gets a lot more interesting... The 6z GFS has the best look of the bunch and the last 3 runs are improving for once instead of failing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 12z looks better for a brief change over. Than 6z. Brief but better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS also leaves some energy behind for snow showers Saturday. It’s showed up on the GEFS a little bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS also leaves some energy behind for snow showers Saturday. It’s showed up on the GEFS a little bit too. Will take whatever is offered. Although these set ups often disappoint as we see rapid clearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 You can already see the 12z gfs @ hr60 slowing down the next shortwave. Considering the shifts we've seen across the board in the last 12 hours, I don't think we're close yet to any type of confidence on how next week plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You can already see the 12z gfs @ hr60 slowing down the next shortwave. Considering the shifts we've seen across the board in the last 12 hours, I don't think we're close yet to any type of confidence on how next week plays out. trough seems pinch more west this run than at 6z...its heading towards euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: trough seems pinch more west this run than at 6z...its heading towards euro lol Do you own stock in TUMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: trough seems pinch more west this run than at 6z...its heading towards euro lol Heh, we're due for a good run. If it goes too slow and too far west then we have temp problems though...lol...nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Keeps getting better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 I knew it. I had to leave. This will trend better and my tears will grow larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 compare sim sat this run vs. last https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=ir&runtime=2018011212&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=320 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 lol too bad it dries up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Do you own stock in TUMS no but i do own stock in washington DC snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 turns into a dry frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 gfs usually dosent make drastic shifts like the euro....maybe by 12z tomororw, it will be where we want it to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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