psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018011200&fh=144 Yea it's a 3-5" snow across our region. 6-10" down in south central VA and central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea it's a 3-5" snow across our region. 6-10" down in south central VA and central NC. I'll take. Locked and Loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 And yea I know it's the euro and it's been trolling us hard all year. But all guidance trended this way. Euro just took it the next step. No idea if we can pull this off but this setup is way better for our chances then needing that clipper to dig enough to get a miller b to develop south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: And yea I know it's the euro and it's been trolling us hard all year. But all guidance trended this way. Euro just took it the next step. No idea if we can pull this off but this setup is way better for our chances then needing that clipper to dig enough to get a miller b to develop south of us. I'm not surprised. I'll gladly take an uncomplicated 24 hours of light overrunning to get 3-4" of snow. Keep slowing things down and I'll gladly take 6-10" over 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 To clarify all the guidance stepped away from a closed low at h5 bowling across to our north and sparking a miller b system and trended towards a sharper deeper trough and the clipper racing across then possibly something developing along the coast behind it as the trough comes through. Even without a deep system we can get a band of overrunning snow with that setup. This can work way better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Looks like it crushed the The area between the Hudson and CT river this run. Can't tell exactly where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just getting going. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/snow-depth-in/20180117-2100z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: Looks like it crushed the The area between the Hudson and CT river this run. Can't tell exactly where. And rains on Boston too. I'd take this 100 times out of 100. Some GEFS was better too. Hopefully this all continues to trend in the right direction, and then we can manage a minor or decent snowfall out of this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just now, Amped said: Looks like it crushed the The area between the Hudson and CT river this run. Can't tell exactly where. They get hit twice. The clipper puts down a good bit up there as it does develop as it hits the coast north of us. Then they get hit again. But I don't care. Give me a decent snow and I don't care what NY gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Gfs wasn't far off what the euro just did. I'd much prefer getting an event this way. It could have been a lot bigger here. Straight gulf connection along a crawling boundary. A legit wave can run a boundary like that too. No temp issues, no complicated processes, no stress. Well, except for the stress of it being gone in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They get hit twice. The clipper puts down a good bit up there as it does develop as it hits the coast north of us. Then they get hit again. But I don't care. Give me a decent snow and I don't care what NY gets. Yeah looks like most of it is in VT NH anyway. NYC doesn't get that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 It's the best of both worlds for us. We get about 12 hours of light snow from the overrunning and then a coastal develops near OBX and gives us another 9 hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not surprised. I'll gladly take an uncomplicated 24 hours of light overrunning to get 3-4" of snow. Keep slowing things down and I'll gladly take 6-10" over 48 hours. Reminds me of a 2-4" event we got in December 2000. This euro run was close to something a lot bigger too. If the low was just a bit deeper...we were right under where things would have really got good. But I'd lock this up for sure. It's generally 3-4" around D.C. With a 5-6" area up here and another to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Anyway thats such a wonky look at H5 on the euro I wouldn't trust it until we get in closer.It's the kind of setup that can't possibly work for us unless it's NOV 1953. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The stuff west of the VA/WV line is from tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 The GFS and ICON both had the overrunning, and the GGEM was close - it just didn't get the dry air out fast enough. The Euro is the only one to develop the coastal south of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 It's not saying much but of all the threats we've been chasing this has the best upside potential. The trough is trending deeper and slower on all guidance. We just need a wave on the boundary. Not some crazy capture and negative tug. Not some miller b super dig. Not some clipper to take a perfect track. This could work without needing heaven and earth to be in perfect alignment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, cae said: The GFS and ICON both had the overrunning, and the GGEM was close - it just didn't get the dry air out fast enough. The Euro is the only one to develop the coastal south of us though. It's there on all the guidance just weak and thus way east. The other guidance was heading this way. That's why i said I liked the runs earlier even if they didn't do much. The question is did the euro just troll is again or did it just take the next step and the others will continue to trend this way. We're still way way out there so lots of time for more curve balls. Hopefully the EPS will support this idea. Gonna try to get some sleep. Darn prednisone gives me insomnia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 4 hours ago, mitchnick said: Just getting going. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/snow-depth-in/20180117-2100z.html Is weather.us showing the euro precip output by mistake? The first free site I have ever seen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 1 minute ago, PDIII said: Is weather.us showing the euro precip output by mistake? The first free site I have ever seen... No. It has been available for several months now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS 6z looks further east with the trough next week and nothing like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 GFS 6z looks further east with the trough next week and nothing like the Euro. Trust the gfs moreSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Trust the gfs more Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Oh yes. We really will be waiting for Feb I have no doubt. Blowing through weeks of the best climo in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 27 minutes ago, BristowWx said: GFS 6z looks further east with the trough next week and nothing like the Euro. It was another step in the right direction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Loop the 6z gfs h5 hemispheric. High lat blocking forces 4 straight systems under us. This runs a win. Op euro had the same setup day 10. It's also buried within the individual ensembles. The mean us skewed warm because the members that have less blocking go ape with the ridge and warmth. But there is a decent chance that any given system gets forced under us and could be frozen within the next 15 days. I'm not complaining about the look I saw on either the gfs or euro tonight. If they are right we will have opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 It was another step in the right direction though. Agreed. 500mb closer to pinching off southern lobe now. Not getting overly worked up on when and where or on surface plots just yet but the idea is starting to show up more. The first wave or clipper is almost a flash in the pan now unless we are hoping for inverted trof type stuff. The focus now is on the sharper trof and trying to pinch the lobe. WAR and ridge bridge timed properly *could* keep the trof and lobe feature at a more favorable longitude. Need to keep an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Loop the 6z gfs h5 hemispheric. High lat blocking forces 4 straight systems under us. This runs a win. Op euro had the same setup day 10. It's also buried within the individual ensembles. The mean us skewed warm because the members that have less blocking go ape with the ridge and warmth. But there is a decent chance that any given system gets forced under us and could be frozen within the next 15 days. I'm not complaining about the look I saw on either the gfs or euro tonight. If they are right we will have opportunities. Ok. I was just looking at h5 for next Wed/Thurs and it looked to me like the trough was further east. Didn’t see the big picture. Don’t you ever sleep lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Ok. I was just looking at h5 for next Wed/Thurs and it looked to me like the trough was further east. Didn’t see the big picture. Don’t you ever sleep lol? It's east compare to the euro and yes as is a miss mostly after some light overrunning but it's closer then 0z. Look at the h5. 6z is closer to cutting off the southern vort in the trough. Much more focused on that. That's how the euro and the EPS/gefs members that give us good snow do it. It was another subtle step in the right direction. Still a lot of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Ok. I was just looking at h5 for next Wed/Thurs and it looked to me like the trough was further east. Didn’t see the big picture. Don’t you ever sleep lol? I wish I could. I came down with a bad bout of bronchitis complicated by my asthma. Between the prednisone which causes insomnia and waking up choking and coughing every 20 minutes I haven't slept more then an hour at a time in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wish I could. I came down with a bad bout of bronchitis complicated by my asthma. Between the prednisone which causes insomnia and waking up choking and coughing every 20 minutes I haven't slept more then an hour at a time in 3 days. Jeez. That sucks. I did see your point on h5. This has a chance for a totally unscientific reason. I will be on work travel next week to FL. Missed many events that way. I have no travel in Feb so that doesn’t bode well for the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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