January Mid-Long Range Disco

[WeathermanB]

10 day weather forecast has 3 to 5 inches of snow on wednesday morning

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Here's my seasonal snowfall through January 15th:

2010- 28.0"

2011- 4.5"

2012- 4.2"

2013- 9.7"

2014- 15.3"

2015- 5.1"

2016- 0.2"

2017- 2.5"

2018- 1.3"

So only one year this decade started worse here than this one to this point, and that one had 3' fall a week later.

What's happening out west is truly an epic fail. But the people complaining closer to D.C. And Baltimore are the ones that confuse me. We're right about where we were 8 out if the last 10 years right now. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

10 day weather forecast has 3 to 5 inches of snow on wednesday morning

Thanks for sharing 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Oh does it?  On weather.us I noticed that it doesn't count mixed if you use the accumulated total precip snow function.  

Yea the weather.us ones might not. But I'm pretty sure the one posted does. Unless they fixed it in the last few years. 

[WVclimo]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What's happening out west is truly an epic fail. But the people complaining closer to D.C. And Baltimore are the ones that confuse me. We're right about where we were 8 out if the last 10 years right now. 

It's frustrating but we have been spoiled recently.  In 11 winters here (prior to this one) I have averaged over 32" which is well-above the long-term average of 26" for this area.  So we are probably going to have to pay that back for a while.

I spent a day in Garrett Co. a couple of weekends back and got a temporary snow-fix, but that buzz has since worn off.  I am now trying to figure out how to tell my boss that I don't want to attend a work conference the end of this month in Tennessee because some guy in Canada is forecasting an energy peak, lol.

[Vice-Regent]

2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

It's frustrating but we have been spoiled recently.  In 11 winters here (prior to this one) I have averaged over 32" which is well-above the long-term average of 26" for this area.  So we are probably going to have to pay that back for a while.

I spent a day in Garrett Co. a couple of weekends back and got a temporary snow-fix, but that buzz has since worn off.  I am now trying to figure out how to tell my boss that I don't want to attend a work conference the end of this month in Tennessee because some guy in Canada is forecasting an energy peak, lol.

By the time you finished paying it back the climate tables will have already turned way over. I hold out hope that we can get dumped on in any pattern due to the sheer blockiness.

[Subtropics]

17 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

10 day weather forecast has 3 to 5 inches of snow on wednesday morning

How many school days off do they have left in the bank? That would be good for another couple days I'd imagine?

[MountainGeek]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What's happening out west is truly an epic fail. But the people complaining closer to D.C. And Baltimore are the ones that confuse me. We're right about where we were 8 out if the last 10 years right now. 

Exactly. Folks need to remember that some of us are sitting at 1.5" TOTAL for the season, being just barely on the outside looking in for every event so far.

If we had gotten a few inches out of just one of the recent events and were sitting somewhere around average, I'd be perfectly happy......which is where a lot of people in the MA are at this point but they are grumpy?

[Isotherm]

@Bob Chill:

 

The tropospheric precursor pattern auspicious for wave-1 constructive interference is in the process of inducing energy transfer into the stratosphere, which will converge on the vortex most strongly over the next several days. Objective indicators of SPV status such as ozone concentrations/trends, proxies for the BDC, polar vortex area, polar temperatures, etc., have all been suggestive of a vortex intensification episode right now. The wave-1 hit will cause a significant weakening of the SPV, but it's not sufficient in and of itself to force a collapse via robust displacement or splitting event. The geopotential height anomalies will downwell such that the NAM tilts negative, possibly moderately so, in the medium range. However, the NAO continues to remain positive due to the strat orientation. The preeminence of the +NAO was something I expected this winter, contemporaneous with a more favorable poleward Pac into Arctic signal.

Going forward, a wave-2 precursor pattern emerges, and this will induce constructive interference with enhanced energy transfer by D 10-20.

The vortex will indubitably attempt to recover in later January as the EPV is still too equatorward, and the concomitant forcing is insufficient to do overwhelming/material damage to the vortex, which by the way is quite strong this year again for multifarious reasons. So as you alluded to, after the negative AO burst medium range, we will likely neutralize again toward the end of January/beginning of February. Then, the question becomes, can we couple more conducive tropical forcing progression w/ w2 to induce collapse in early February? I think there's a decent chance the vortex takes another hard hit via the follow up wave-2 at the end of January. Now, whether that's sufficient to induce an official SSW is indeterminate.

However, regardless; due to improved tropical forcing as well as a weakened vortex, I have been of the opinion that February's pattern trends more propitious with time for colder air to return to the East Coast. It is possible though that it may not occur until the second week of the month, depending upon the exact timing of the aforementioned features.

Until then, my thoughts are basically congruous w/ my winter outlook in that an overall unfavorable regime for snow in the coastal Northeast through week 3 with biased warmer than normal temps, spasmodic arctic shots. Mid-next week's event favors the interior to me right now, but a low-end event is possible for the coast.

[baltimoreguy]

2 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Exactly. Folks need to remember that some of us are sitting at 1.5" TOTAL for the season, being just barely on the outside looking in for every event so far.

If we had gotten a few inches out of just one of the recent events and were sitting somewhere around average, I'd be perfectly happy......which is where a lot of people in the MA are at this point but they are grumpy?

Weenies gonna ween

[psuhoffman]

Just pretend this is the most skilled EPS member. 

 

[Ji]

if one member has it, then there is a chance......

 

 

like the redskins winning the superbowl this year

[87storms]

gfs doesn't look impossible so far for tuesday thru 90.  it's still early in the game, so knowing there's a disturbance nearby with cold air in place should count for something.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

@Bob Chill:

 

The tropospheric precursor pattern auspicious for wave-1 constructive interference is in the process of inducing energy transfer into the stratosphere, which will converge on the vortex most strongly over the next several days. Objective indicators of SPV status such as ozone concentrations/trends, proxies for the BDC, polar vortex area, polar temperatures, etc., have all been suggestive of a vortex intensification episode right now. The wave-1 hit will cause a significant weakening of the SPV, but it's not sufficient in and of itself to force a collapse via robust displacement or splitting event. The geopotential height anomalies will downwell such that the NAM tilts negative, possibly moderately so, in the medium range. However, the NAO continues to remain positive due to the strat orientation. The preeminence of the +NAO was something I expected this winter, contemporaneous with a more favorable poleward Pac into Arctic signal.

Going forward, a wave-2 precursor pattern emerges, and this will induce constructive interference with enhanced energy transfer by D 10-20.

The vortex will indubitably attempt to recover in later January as the EPV is still too equatorward, and the concomitant forcing is insufficient to do overwhelming/material damage to the vortex, which by the way is quite strong this year again for multifarious reasons. So as you alluded to, after the negative AO burst medium range, we will likely neutralize again toward the end of January/beginning of February. Then, the question becomes, can we couple more conducive tropical forcing progression w/ w2 to induce collapse in early February? I think there's a decent chance the vortex takes another hard hit via the follow up wave-2 at the end of January. Now, whether that's sufficient to induce an official SSW is indeterminate.

However, regardless; due to improved tropical forcing as well as a weakened vortex, I have been of the opinion that February's pattern trends more propitious with time for colder air to return to the East Coast. It is possible though that it may not occur until the second week of the month, depending upon the exact timing of the aforementioned features.

Until then, my thoughts are basically congruous w/ my winter outlook in that an overall unfavorable regime for snow in the coastal Northeast through week 3 with biased warmer than normal temps, spasmodic arctic shots. Mid-next week's event favors the interior to me right now, but a low-end event is possible for the coast.

I get the sense from your posts up in the NYC threads that you probably think the places down this way that are still waiting for snow are in pretty big trouble this year. Piecing together your posts you seem pretty down on any snow chances for the next month or so. And down here climo starts becoming a problem after that. Would it be fair to say you think it's very likely we finish well below climo snow again?  Not saying I disagree just trying to let you elaborate since your thoughts for NYC don't decessarily match here. Love your analysis btw. Thanks for your thoughts. 

[Ji]

gfs doesn't look impossible so far for tuesday thru 90.  it's still early in the game, so knowing there's a disturbance nearby with cold air in place should count for something.

Looks way worse. Trough closed off wa t too early

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[Ji]

I get the sense from your posts up in the NYC threads that you probably think the places down this way that are still waiting for snow are in pretty big trouble this year. Piecing together your posts you seem pretty down on any snow chances for the next month or so. And down here climo starts becoming a problem after that. Would it be fair to say you think it's very likely we finish well below climo snow again?  Not saying I disagree just trying to let you elaborate since your thoughts for NYC don't decessarily match here. Love your analysis btw. Thanks for your thoughts. 

Waiting till mid February is a chance I'm always willing to take with hot sun and 50 degree average high. Bring it!

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[cae]

I just looked through the 12z ensembles.  The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all have an average of about 1" snow depth imby a week from now, almost entirely from the second system.  A large majority of the EPS members have something for our region, as do a majority of GEFS and GEPS members.  I think we'll probably be tracking something for someone in our region, but it might not be much and some folks might be shut out entirely.

[87storms]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks way worse. Trough closed off wa t too early

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we need the gulf to be open for business when it counts, and that really hasn't happened yet this year.  that wave didn't look too bad until it got near the mountains.  just need to hope it trends further south the next couple days.

[Ji]

we need the gulf to be open for business when it counts, and that really hasn't happened yet this year.  that wave didn't look too bad until it got near the mountains.  just need to hope it trends further south the next couple days.

Unfortunately we need a South trend...or a north trend...or west trend or east trend and all we get is the no snow trend

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[Scraff]

12 minutes ago, cae said:

I just looked through the 12z ensembles.  The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all have an average of about 1" snow depth imby a week from now, almost entirely from the second system.  A large majority of the EPS members have something for our region, as do a majority of GEFS and GEPS members.  I think we'll probably be tracking something for someone in our region, but it might not be much and some folks might be shut out entirely.

Does “someone in our region” now include Maine? I need a beah and lobstah...

 

Man we badly need more snow and less comedy. 

[cae]

The German model at 18z looks like one of the better ensemble members.  Near the cities this is all snow. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks way worse. Trough closed off wa t too early

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Agree this gfs run wasn't even close to what we need. 

[psuhoffman]

It's still far enough out and enough ensemble members show something to not shut the door completely yet. But it's very low probability now. 

[cae]

8 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Does “someone in our region” now include Maine? I need a beah and lobstah...

 

Man we badly need more snow and less comedy. 

I'm guessing we'll somehow pull off jackpots in Salisbury and Westminster, with a shutout for everyone in between. 

[mitchnick]

We need a front to slow down and have a slp form on it and ride north like what the MW and PA are getting in a couple days. Only shot in a warmer regime.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

We need a front to slow down and have a slp form on it and ride north like what the MW and PA are getting in a couple days. Only shot in a warmer regime.

Agree that's how it usually works when we score a fluke in a crap pattern. 

[Ji]

It's still far enough out and enough ensemble members show something to not shut the door completely yet. But it's very low probability now. 

Why is this not digging. Ridge west looks okay

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[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Why is this not digging. Ridge west looks okay

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It is digging. Look where it's coming from. Starting out way too far northeast. Bad trajectory again. All northern stream. Needing some epic dig.  How often does an all northern stream clipper induced low dig and cut off south of us?   The trough is better aligned for us with the vort in front of that one. Perfect vort pass. But it's squashed behind two other systems and has no surface development at all. Then the trough pulls east just enough to make it nearly impossible again for the vort that's digging and amplifying.  It's called bad luck. 

[Jebman]

28 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Does “someone in our region” now include Maine? I need a beah and lobstah...

 

Man we badly need more snow and less comedy. 

LMAO x 9BN

[psuhoffman]

Gfs teasing at 384 hours. All feels right in the world.