January Mid-Long Range Disco

[Interstate]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I changed my mind.  This is exactly what will happen.

It is giving us the middle finger

[mitchnick]

this craptastic winter needs an enema, and I know just how to do it

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

It seems nearly impossible to get a 4-8 inch snowstorm now. They used to be much more frequent. Now it's either a T or a blizzard. We suck

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

But playing devils advocate our frequency of big storms have gone up.   So maybe some of the medium ones became big and some went away. It's a wash. Does reduce our snow frequency though. I do think warming has hurt D.C. On the margins. And i think it's effecting here too. The average went up even due to more huge events. But there also seem to be more snowless stretches here now then in the past by records. But that's our climo now. Why do you keep expecting a ton of 4-8" snows when you've been saying for years they don't happen anymore. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

this craptastic winter needs an enema, and I know just how to do it

I agree but if you take away the 3 good winters we get every decade isn't this winter pretty much normal for all the others. We seem to say this same thing about 60% of our winters. Maybe this is just our winter reality. 

[PDIII]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But playing devils advocate our frequency of big storms have gone up.   So maybe some of the medium ones became big and some went away. It's a wash. Does reduce our snow frequency though. I do think warming has hurt D.C. On the margins. And i think it's effecting here too. The average went up even due to more huge events. But there also seem to be more snowless stretches here now then in the past by records. But that's our climo now. Why do you keep expecting a ton of 4-8" snows when you've been saying for years they don't happen anymore. 

How about we calculate the mean deviation and see what we come up with.  I am going to go out on the limb and say that ji is wrong.. we probably never got a lot of 4-8 inchers and the mean deviation for our area has not increased over the last several years.. in other words.. feast or famine is basically what we get... it is either 1 inch or 18 inches... not much in the middle.. 

[cae]

The UKMET shifted west with the weekend system and now gets about 2" of rain into the cities.  It's hard to tell how that affects the next system though.  At 120 it looks like it forms the closed H5 low a little more south than the other ops and has a weak surface low forming near NYC.

[psuhoffman]

Take out 2013/14 and 2009/10. What other winters in the last 10 years where we doing better at this point?  Wouldn't we have been saying the same crap right now in 2008 or 2009 and 2012 and 2013 and 2015 and 2016 and last year.  Some of those ended better. Most did not. But this feels like our typical winter. Yet we react like we should have 3 snowstorms by now. 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree but if you take away the 3 good winters we get every decade isn't this winter pretty much normal for all the others. We seem to say this same thing about 60% of our winters. Maybe this is just our winter reality. 

probably is close to reality (if not average), but that doesn't mean it isn't craptastic

winters like last year that are too warm to snow in our area means likewise in surrounding areas

to me, what makes this winter particularly difficulty is the proximity of decent snowfall; normally, it's a 40N issue, but the Lower Eastern Shore of MD and Tidewater VA is a little harder to take

but there's nothing for us to do except hope for a flushing of the players as they have arranged themselves; sometimes the passage of time will do it, others an extended thaw, and others just don't change

all hopes turn to the strat.....and you know what that means       lol

 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, cae said:

The UKMET shifted west with the weekend system and now gets about 2" of rain into the cities.  It's hard to tell how that affects the next system though.  At 120 it looks like it forms the closed H5 low a little more south than the other ops and has a weak surface low forming near NYC.

forget it.....precip panels look similar to the Euro, only a bit further north, so it's still a miss

[PDIII]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Take out 2013/14 and 2009/10. What other winters in the last 10 years where we doing better at this point?  Wouldn't we have been saying the same crap right now in 2008 or 2009 and 2012 and 2013 and 2015 and 2016 and last year.  Some of those ended better. Most did not. But this feels like our typical winter. Yet we react like we should have 3 snowstorms by now. 

Snow in the mid atlantic is a lot like chasing surf during tropical season.. you can pretty much count on a big swell sometime between August 15 and Sept 15 in Ocean City.. I schedule vacation during that time and always cash in.. it pretty much never fails.. change it to Jan 15 to February 15 and you can pretty much say the same for snow in the mid atlantic.  This is why I am glad we warmed this week.. it gives us a better shot to flip to cold during our best weeks...

[RevWarReenactor]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Take out 2013/14 and 2009/10. What other winters in the last 10 years where we doing better at this point?  Wouldn't we have been saying the same crap right now in 2008 or 2009 and 2012 and 2013 and 2015 and 2016 and last year.  Some of those ended better. Most did not. But this feels like our typical winter. Yet we react like we should have 3 snowstorms by now. 

I think the historic cold and a coastal storm passing us by, and 2 years with no significant snowfall, is starting to break people. Even though its early in the year it feels like destiny that we aren't going to score this year, its just based on our recent luck. We are getting flashbacks to this time last year when nothing was working as well. You know how it ended right?

We soon found out we were tracking spring.

[Ji]

here is another example of how it dosent want to snow....this sw here looks good right? dosent even get precip north of Virginia as it gets pushed due east/southeast by an incoming western trough. 

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

probably is close to reality (if not average), but that doesn't mean it isn't craptastic

winters like last year that are too warm to snow in our area means likewise in surrounding areas

to me, what makes this winter particularly difficulty is the pweroximity of decent snowfall; normally, it's a 40N issue, but the Lower Eastern Shore of MD and Tidewater VA is a little harder to take

but there's nothing for us to do except hope for a flushing of the players as they have arranged themselves; sometimes the passage of time will do it, others an extended thaw, and others just don't change

all hopes turn to the strat.....and you know what that means       lol

 

we have more hope from this

[PDIII]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

here is another example of how it dosent want to snow....this sw here looks good right? dosent even get precip north of Virginia as it gets pushed due east/southeast by an incoming western trough. 

Whatever.. I will take that look at 204 hours any time.. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, PDIII said:

How about we calculate the mean deviation to climo and see what we come up with.  I am going to go out on the limb and say that ji is wrong.. we probably never got a lot of 4-8 inchers and the mean deviation for our area has not increased over the last several years.. in other words.. feast or famine is basically what we get... it is either 1 inch or 18 inches... not much in the middle.. 

I'm not feeling well enough to dig into individual storm data but just eyeballing the D.C. seasonal snowfall JI has a point. In the last 11 years D.C. has gad 6 single digit snow years or 55%. In the 119 years prior it happened 29 times or 24%. That's a big difference. And just glancing its obvious that trend would hold for 12" and 15" years also. D.C. Does get total crap winters more now then in the past. I used 11 years because it's been especially bad lately but that trend really started about 25 years ago so getting upset about it every year as if we still expect our climo to be what it was 50 years ago when we know darn well it's not anymore seems to just cause agrivation. 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, cae said:

The UKMET shifted west with the weekend system and now gets about 2" of rain into the cities.  It's hard to tell how that affects the next system though.  At 120 it looks like it forms the closed H5 low a little more south than the other ops and has a weak surface low forming near NYC.

That panel doesn't excite me. Shift it all 200 miles south...closed low over KY and a surface low over southern Ohio about to transfer to off VA and then I'm excited. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

we have more hope from this

I got rid of almost all my Fenders. I like the shorter scale on the Gibsons and PRS's. But you're right otherwise.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Take out 2013/14 and 2009/10. What other winters in the last 10 years where we doing better at this point?  Wouldn't we have been saying the same crap right now in 2008 or 2009 and 2012 and 2013 and 2015 and 2016 and last year.  Some of those ended better. Most did not. But this feels like our typical winter. Yet we react like we should have 3 snowstorms by now. 

Very true.  This may be obvious, but I'm sure a lot of this is simply due to perception and expectation based on how things evolved so far.  We've just come out of one of the coldest (and prolonged, at that) periods in several years with hardly any snow to show for it.  If it were like last year, we perhaps wouldn't "notice" the lack of snow so much because we wouldn't expect it in a crap, warm pattern.  But we'd still b**ch of course!  Add to that the fact we *just* missed out on the big bomb coastal the other week, so it has the feel of Boxing Day 2010 all over again.  Offhand, other than the years you mentioned I'm having a hard time thinking of how many were much better or at least pretty good at this point in the winter.  You'd have to go back more than 10 years I think...2004/5 and 2002/3 come to mind in that regard.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

here is another example of how it dosent want to snow....this sw here looks good right? dosent even get precip north of Virginia as it gets pushed due east/southeast by an incoming western trough. 

But you can't ignore the west. There is a trough where we want a ridge. Lol 

[ravensrule]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Sounds like something RR likes to do.

I like to strap on. You are obviously confused.

[Ralph Wiggum]

I got rid of almost all my Fenders. I like the shorter scale on the Gibsons and PRS's. But you're right otherwise.

Love me my Les Paul! Still have my vintage Strat tho....plays like butter. Hendrix was always good for Strat warming......or was that considered a torch?

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

I like to strap on. You are obviously confused.

don't lie man, you used to strapolate, so that makes you an extrapolator

[Ralph Wiggum]

But you can't ignore the west. There is a trough where we want a ridge. Lol 

West blech. East...50/50 low, good confluence. Mean ridge would assume warmth but havent looked at the surface. That prog isnt putrid. Im not hugging it tho either. Pros and cons.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Love me my Les Paul! Still have my vintage Strat tho....plays like butter. Hendrix was always good for Strat warming......or was that considered a torch?

What year on the Strat? In 2/75 I bought me a 1974 blue sparkle Les Paul Deluxe (rare color).....still have it  

and too many other guitars....just one more OCD     lol

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

don't lie man, you used to strapolate, so that makes you an extrapolator

What i used to do when i was single is NSFW, even for Randy.

[WinterWxLuvr]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Take out 2013/14 and 2009/10. What other winters in the last 10 years where we doing better at this point?  Wouldn't we have been saying the same crap right now in 2008 or 2009 and 2012 and 2013 and 2015 and 2016 and last year.  Some of those ended better. Most did not. But this feels like our typical winter. Yet we react like we should have 3 snowstorms by now. 

Here, that would include 10/11, 12/13, 14/15.

In about 10 days, that would include 08/09, and 15/16

[WVclimo]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Here, that would include 10/11, 12/13, 14/15.

In about 10 days, that would include 08/09, and 15/16

Here's my seasonal snowfall through January 15th:

2010- 28.0"

2011- 4.5"

2012- 4.2"

2013- 9.7"

2014- 15.3"

2015- 5.1"

2016- 0.2"

2017- 2.5"

2018- 1.3"

So only one year this decade started worse here than this one to this point, and that one had 3' fall a week later.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Here, that would include 10/11, 12/13, 14/15.

In about 10 days, that would include 08/09, and 15/16

I think its because the bombogenesis storm from last week was such a close miss of something spectacular its causing angst at least for those west of 95.  Using 95 as a rough dividing line we really have four regions east to west in our subforum.  Far west, near west, near east and far east.  near east and far east have done well obviously so not fair to say we are getting screwed at all.  just some of us are getting screwed.   

[Wxdavis5784]

26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Love me my Les Paul! Still have my vintage Strat tho....plays like butter. Hendrix was always good for Strat warming......or was that considered a torch?

I bought a Fender Mustang MP short scale last year with mp-90 pickups... its a fun little guitar.. I still love my Gibsons...

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It counts ice as snow so not sure that's real 

Oh does it?  On weather.us I noticed that it doesn't count mixed if you use the accumulated total precip snow function.