NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 EURO still shows a transition to wintry precip as the rain moves out. Snowing out west at hour 48 when temps are 25. Take as you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’ve never before seen an actual storm do what the 12Z CMC does. We almost never rain in those unless there is some sort of late transferring lakes low. Usually it’s either a miss or we get hit with snow. So I would say you guys are still in business down there since the CMC scenario isn’t something that’s really even seen at all where a low develops like that and tracks that far in It's not usual but I've seen it. And the Cmc does have a late transferring lakes low. That's how it gets that end result. It's way north with the initial northern stream system and tracks it up through the lakes so the transfer ends up north and west of other guidance. I have seen that though. Something almost exactly like the Cmc run happened when I was in hazleton pa in the late 90s. The low transferred to eastern MD then cut due north. We got about 6" from it. Didn't last long but was fun because had a short period of very heavy snow as it was developing. But NYC and Boston were mostly dry slotted the whole time after some light rain showers. Was a mini bust. We did better then expected and NYC to eastern New England got nothing when they were expecting 3-6". That said one example does not mean I think that's happening. The Cmc is an outlier att. But it can happen. I think sometimes things like that go unnoticed because a 4-8" snowfall in the interior isn't really a big deal vs a 95 snowstorm. But I've seen northern stream systems go negative too early and turn the corner too soon for NYC. It's not the most likely outcome here but I don't rule that out completely. Last nights euro did something similar only further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 And then the Euro just sucks me back in. It is insistent on tracking the system south of me. Model war continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: And then the Euro just sucks me back in. It is insistent on tracking the system south of me. Model war continues. i wouldnt get too excited. Its very quick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i wouldnt get too excited. Its very quick... Im not. I am just talking about the difference in track between the models. Short range stuff and GFS track directly overhead of my area. Euro stays south of the area. It is a little bit faster with the cold push as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: Im not. I am just talking about the difference in track between the models. Short range stuff and GFS track directly overhead of my area. Euro stays south of the area. It is a little bit faster with the cold push as a result. yep...in the end..you really got nothing either way worth getting excited about. this entire storm has become a more of a nice frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: And then the Euro just sucks me back in. It is insistent on tracking the system south of me. Model war continues. Be careful that map is using the temps at the end of the period to determine the precip the previous period. Most of that is rain. Looking at just what falls after temps drop its very light. Maybe .04-.06 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Be careful that map is using the temps at the end of the period to determine the precip the previous period. Most of that is rain. Looking at just what falls after temps drop its very light. Maybe .04-.06 qpf. we probably will see nothing..these things dont usually end well for us...usually by the time it gets cold enough...the precip is long gone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Be careful that map is using the temps at the end of the period to determine the precip the previous period. Most of that is rain. Looking at just what falls after temps drop its very light. Maybe .04-.06 qpf. I feel like that mistake is made a lot when we have any system come through as rain and then try to turn to snow on the backside. It literally never happens except maybe a few mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I don't like the trends on the euro so far for next week. Less dig. Trough looks less sharp. More like gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we probably will see nothing..these things dont usually end well for us...usually by the time it gets cold enough...the precip is long gone lol I've moved on to our next fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Euro looks weird. It's north of the gfs with the initial low coming down the Midwest. Then races that off to our north. Then tries to pop another coastal behind it off to our east. Still probably going to fringe us at best but totally different from everything else. And given its record lately probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't like the trends on the euro so far for next week. Less dig. Trough looks less sharp. More like gfs. that would kinda suck. i'm not big on digital tracking, but it would be nice to at least have something to monitor. if it's like the gfs, though, i guess it's still within possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Nope comes together too late. But don't worry it hits Salisbury and Ocean City really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I changed my mind. This is exactly what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 euro is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nope comes together too late. But don't worry it hits Salisbury and Ocean City really good. It just has that feel this year that it wants to snow...in Ocean City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, Ji said: euro is a disaster Did you really expect it to hold that crazy dig cutoff low to our southwest solution from last night when nothing else including its ensembles support it and it's been a hot mess lately? You knew how this was going to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I changed my mind. This is exactly what will happen. LOL at the Euro giving us the finger. Obviously as others has said this is a setup that favors Philly --> Boston so I won't be too surprised or upset if we miss out. I'm surprised to see the eastern ridges in WV piling up 9-13 inches...I noticed it did shift this weekend's swath of snow significantly south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 No....but that dosent prevent it from being a disaster Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I changed my mind. This is exactly what will happen. The gray area is no boob, but it certainly looks like a stretched something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 If we want to view the euro run with rose color glasses this still leaves the door open for us more then the gfs h5. The trough is still sharper here then on the gfs. It lost the crazy amped idea but if that weak low developing to our southeast trends in closer we could eek out a decent snow in the euro universe evolution of this. It does give parts of VA to our southeast good snow. I'd rather be needing a northwest trend then a bigger dig trend anyway. Problem is I doubt the euro way it handles this is right. It's a disjointed mess and looks weird compared to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Did you really expect it to hold that crazy dig cutoff low to our southwest solution from last night when nothing else including its ensembles support it and it's been a hot mess lately? You knew how this was going to go. You would think after years of snow drought we could catch one break Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 That actually looks just like the CMC total precipitation map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: LOL at the Euro giving us the finger. Obviously as others has said this is a setup that favors Philly --> Boston so I won't be too surprised or upset if we miss out. I'm surprised to see the eastern ridges in WV piling up 9-13 inches...I noticed it did shift this weekend's swath of snow significantly south and east. It counts ice as snow so not sure that's real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I would take that 2-3 inches on the Euro in a heartbeat. It might actually look like winter out here for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: No....but that dosent prevent it from being a disaster Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk You wouldn't say any random run that doesn't show snow day 5 is a disaster. It's only a disaster if you had an expectation of snow. If you didn't then it's just status quo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 You wouldn't say any random run that doesn't show snow day 5 is a disaster. It's only a disaster if you had an expectation of snow. If you didn't then it's just status quo. I'm just saying everytime we are at a crossroads where we need to remain status quo or get a better trend...we go the wrong direction Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: You would think after years of snow drought we could catch one break Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Come on man. You know our climo. We get 1-2 huge snowstorms every decade and 1 out of every 5 or 6 years we get on a heater due to hitting the pattern jackpot and get a string of snows. The rest of the time (70%) we fight and struggle to eek out anything. Dont think I'm not frustrated. I am. But this is normal. We have 2 year big snow droughts all the time. Why do we act shocked every time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Come on man. You know our climo. We get 1-2 huge snowstorms every decade and 1 out of every 5 or 6 years we get on a heater due to hitting the pattern jackpot and get a string of snows. The rest of the time (70%) we fight and struggle to eek out anything. Dont think I'm not frustrated. I am. But this is normal. We have 2 year big snow droughts all the time. Why do we act shocked every time?It seems nearly impossible to get a 4-8 inch snowstorm now. They used to be much more frequent. Now it's either a T or a blizzard. We suck Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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