Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs still doesn't want to dig enough next week. The trough is closing off to our northwest and so the surface turns the corner west of us and not even digs to our latitude. On the upside it is seeming more energetic as we get closer so if we can get a better track it could be something. Yeah, looks like it *tries* to perhaps dig a bit more energy to the southwest compared to earlier cycles, but it still closes off the main low in Ohio. Definitely appears more energetic as you say, I was a bit surprised how much precip (snow) it squeezes out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Not everyone. Just the same places that have been getting the snow all winter. The I-81 snow drought continues per the GFS. This winter is a ****ing nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS tries a little harder for next week with a stronger shortwave, but still would like to see it dig farther south. But does give the metro areas and points east a decent light event. Yea the energy improved but track didn't. I'm confident the system will trend wetter in the short range but I'm worried about track. We just need a bit more dig but in my experience that runs contrary to usual trends from this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: If it pops east and moves northeast we're left dry. In other words what the GGEM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: This winter is a ****ing nightmare. That looks par for the course . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, looks like it *tries* to perhaps dig a bit more energy to the southwest compared to earlier cycles, but it still closes off the main low in Ohio. Definitely appears more energetic as you say, I was a bit surprised how much precip (snow) it squeezes out for us. Decent upper jet produces a nice area of lift over our region. This will probably evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea the energy improved but track didn't. I'm confident the system will trend wetter in the short range but I'm worried about track. We just need a bit more dig but in my experience that runs contrary to usual trends from this range This year is different. The WAR and developing -NAO with more amplification upstream in the PNA region *should* counter the "usual trends" with this one. More space to develop farther S imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea the energy improved but track didn't. I'm confident the system will trend wetter in the short range but I'm worried about track. We just need a bit more dig but in my experience that runs contrary to usual trends from this range If the trend toward flatter shortwaves continues, this probably doesn’t end well for us. That said, seems that trend is maybe over given the 4th and this weeks storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Overall it was an improvement. Strongly agree. Besides, who wants to be in the bullseye at 120 hours lead time anyway.....this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, looks like it *tries* to perhaps dig a bit more energy to the southwest compared to earlier cycles, but it still closes off the main low in Ohio. Definitely appears more energetic as you say, I was a bit surprised how much precip (snow) it squeezes out for us. The more energy is not shocking. That happens a lot with these discreet vorts as we get closer. Models won't judge them well from range so there is at least a 50/50 shot they end up stronger as we get in range. Im more worried about track. Needing a south trend is not usually where I like to be on these. I do think this becomes a legit event somewhere but my fear is without a deeper dig in the trough that somewhere will be northeast of us. It's close though so worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Strongly agree. Besides, who wants to be in the bullseye at 120 hours lead time anyway.....this year? May not be in the bullseye, but it sure looks like we're near the "nose"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: May not be in the bullseye, but it sure looks like we're near the "nose"!! That's some sick ridging....."ridge bridge". Maybe not perfect or epic but those looks didnt exactly pan out for us. I will take my chances with some slightly displaced ridging this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The more energy is not shocking. That happens a lot with these discreet vorts as we get closer. Models won't judge them well from range so there is at least a 50/50 shot they end up stronger as we get in range. Im more worried about track. Needing a south trend is not usually where I like to be on these. I do think this becomes a legit event somewhere but my fear is without a deeper dig in the trough that somewhere will be northeast of us. It's close though so worth watching. Oh, I totally agree. Like you were saying, we don't want it to pop the low east/northeast of here, we need it to dig more. Which of course is a bit of a long shot around these parts with most northern-stream dominated systems. But this definitely bears watching. Flipping through previous cycles, I did see the ridging to the west of the system of interest appears to orient more southwest/northeast up in Canada, as opposed to nearly north/south. No idea if that's anything worth looking at, or if it's just the effect of the more energetic wave ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: In other words what the GGEM does. Lol yea the ggem is a train wreck. Gfs was close to something good. Ggem is not. Hopefully the rest is in the gfs or better camp. Ggem is way flatter and doesn't dig the trough nearly as much. Surface accordingly is up over the lakes at the same time it's in central Indiana into Ohio on the gfs. Ggem has been pretty bad when it showed snow all winter watch it nail this one. At least it rains on NYC and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 22 minutes ago, Scraff said: GFS not half bad for next week. Plenty of time to get better though. A few inches for everyone... Eta: Just need a few more stretchy boobs. Depends where you are. It completely screws those of us to west again. Not only with the Saturday system but the midweek one as well. It would make sense with the overall trend this winter though so it is probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's some sick ridging....."ridge bridge". Maybe not perfect or epic but those looks didnt exactly pan out for us. I will take my chances with some slightly displaced ridging this year. Yeah, bump that up a bit closer to Greenland and....who knows?! If only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Depends where you are. It completely screws those of us to west again. Not only with the Saturday system but the midweek one as well. It would make sense with the overall trend this winter though so it is probably right. Northern stream miller b storms are not friendly to your area. Even the handful of decent hits I found mostly left your area dry or with an inch at most. The downslope is going to kill the moisture from the primary and even if we get a better dig and a surface system to pop southeast of us the developing precip sheild from that almost always starts east of the blue ridge. There are exceptions but that's 90%. If I was out there I would write this off and then be ecstatic if by some miracle it worked out. I hate being the bad news btw you guys are having a really bad run there. All I can say is I hope it turns soon. But I don't think it's this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Northern stream miller b storms are not friendly to your area. Even the handful of decent hits I found mostly left your area dry or with an inch at most. The downslope is going to kill the moisture from the primary and even if we get a better dig and a surface system to pop southeast of us the developing precip sheild from that almost always starts east of the blue ridge. There are exceptions but that's 90%. If I was out there I would write this off and then be ecstatic if by some miracle it worked out. I hate being the bad news btw you guys are having a really bad run there. All I can say is I hope it turns soon. But I don't think it's this week. Yep agree with everything you say here. We need the southern stream to be active out here. Or a Mauler in the northern stream to score. We usually do better than east of us simply because of elevation. While the east is scoring rain we are snowing a lot of the time. There is still plenty of winter left. But the trends this year and last have not been good for far west of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The PAC sucks. But there will be windows where something could happen given the look up top on all the guidance. Tha gfs run shows how. It missed the boat but if we get tighter spacing between waves there is a short transient opportunity as each system lifts for something to be forced under behind it. Looking at this panel it could have worked if something followed closer. Even still if we get a weak wave it could slide under given the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 looks like an energetic little clipper/mauler for tuesday. hopefully it continues trending south on the gfs. it's got some moisture with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 If this year has taught us anything, it's not to overthink midrange stuff. I don't like the approach but that's the last couple days. The real days that matter are still down the road a piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Look at the difference between SREF and GFS I imagine SREF would do better in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If this year has taught us anything, it's not to overthink midrange stuff. I don't like the approach but that's the last couple days. The real days that matter are still down the road a piece. The models have been jumpy with stuff past day 7. But I feel like they have been ok inside there. Once they lost the fake stj idea they were right that the clipper in late December was all there was and they were ok with track. They were ok on focusing on a threat for the immediate coast with the 4th. They washed out the last system and showed a light ice event from 5 days. And the cutter tomorrow has been modeled ok. They head faked Ohio with a couple amped up runs but for the most part they had the right idea. I think because we aren't getting what we want we're grading them worse. They had one epic tease fail but since then they haven't put us in line for a hit or teased. They showed dry and it was. Now past 7 days they have been awful. This next threat is getting into the range I think we can start to get a feel for what we're dealing with. I agree it will change. If the trough trends sharper with more dig we could be ok. If it trends flatter and north it's a fail. When looking at a bunch of these types of systems something I noticed was the trough orientation on approach mattered as much as the depth. We really want a sharper trough like the euro had. The broad ones coming down tended to be fails even with a decent h5 low track. The sharper troughs tended to at least get some snow even with a worse h5 low pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 9 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Look at the difference between SREF and GFS I imagine SREF would do better in this situation Don’t agree. SREF out of range. GFS is tough to beat close in. And the NS idea hasn’t been settled yet. Sunday night maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I think we should extrapolate the hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think we should extrapolate the hrrr HRRRX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think we should extrapolate the hrrr Sounds like something RR likes to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 ALEET ALEET https://twitter.com/DTVaWeatherman/status/951508961630572547 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I’ve never before seen an actual storm do what the 12Z CMC does. We almost never rain in those unless there is some sort of late transferring lakes low. Usually it’s either a miss or we get hit with snow. So I would say you guys are still in business down there since the CMC scenario isn’t something that’s really even seen at all where a low develops like that and tracks that far in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I don't always extrapolate the hrrr. But when I do it always looks like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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