Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Euro last night did pretty much exactly what the control run did at 12z. Closed off h5 and backed in. Speaking of the control run....sick -ao/nao builds during d10-15.... Poolz, I'm seeing the same thing with the strat. Keeps look better every day. I paged isotherm yesterday but he hasn't responded yet. He really knows this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: And by "win" I mean we get some accumulating snow. 1-3" south of D.C. And 3-6" in our northern half is a win for a northern branch system. In over 100 years of records there are only a few northern stream miller b storms that even have done that much. We have been dumped on by some northern stream dominant miller bs but even those had some hybrid qualities and tapped some gulf moisture on the way in. This right now looks like a pure northern stream miller b with no hybrid qualities. If that remains set expectations accordingly. If youre in VA and get 2" it's a win. If you're in MD and get 4" go running in the street naked. If the fact that somewhere to our north is going to get way more is going to bother you best to skip this one. Your setting yourself up to fail. I just want ~3" more to beat my abysmal total of 12" last year, and I'm good. It can nickel and dime its way there too and I wouldn't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I know some stuff about SSWE but not as much as I should/could....learning every day. One thing I never understood was the lag time between a SSWE and the time it takes to propogate downward to show real weather influence at the trop level then surface. Is there a general rule of thumb to be followed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I didn't even get an inch last year from a single event so I'm pretty sure we've done better than that woooo Well that March 2017 thing might have dropped an inch but if so it got crushed by the rain that followed so quickly I'll never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Yeah, I know its not a 1:1 correlation with a warming strat and winter weather hear in the MA but I see it as something we can throw into the (positives) pile. If we can get the MJO to play nice along with a SSW event...look out below! I'm cautiously optimistic we get plenty more chances and maybe a legit good window somewhere. It just feels that way to me. But pinpointing it is impossible. A start warm does look possible and that's good but it's not a 1:1 correlation to our cold. It is highly correlated to a cold dump into the mid latitudes. However the cold could set up at a different longitude. But I doubt the Pacific stays in craptastic mode the whole way in. And the AO has seemed to want to help at times. We could luck into something. Or we could time the PAC and AO/nao up at some point. I don't think we're done but I can't say when it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know some stuff about SSWE but not as much as I should/could....learning every day. One thing I never understood was the lag time between a SSWE and the time it takes to propogate downward to show real weather influence at the trop level then surface. Is there a general rule of thumb to be followed? I've always heard 2-4 weeks....but I cant be sure at what level the warming has to occur for that clock to start ticking. Then again, I swear I've seen instances when it almost seems immediate...tho I cant think of an actual example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro last night did pretty much exactly what the control run did at 12z. Closed off h5 and backed in. Speaking of the control run....sick -ao/nao builds during d10-15.... Poolz, I'm seeing the same thing with the strat. Keeps look better every day. I paged isotherm yesterday but he hasn't responded yet. He really knows this stuff. Bring it home for us bud. You deserve this one. Been a while since SSW has entered the convo. Cohen has been tootin that horn. I’m headed to southern NY today for a meeting and then northern pa tonight thru the weekend so my posting/lurking may be limited. Hoping the trends continue for all of ours souls sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I'm cautiously optimistic we get plenty more chances and maybe a legit good window somewhere. It just feels that way to me. But pinpointing it is impossible. A start warm does look possible and that's good but it's not a 1:1 correlation to our cold. It is highly correlated to a cold dump into the mid latitudes. However the cold could set up at a different longitude. But I doubt the Pacific stays in craptastic mode the whole way in. And the AO has seemed to want to help at times. We could luck into something. Or we could time the PAC and AO/nao up at some point. I don't think we're done but I can't say when it's coming. Im inclined to believe if/when the SSWE happens and we see the PV displacement it will propogate into the Central and Eastern US via the semi-permanent EPO ridging we've seen. I realize this is more gut-feel than a forecast, but I dont see why the epo will just vanish completely and not return. Oth, the SSWE effects can be like spinning a top and anywhere from Eurasia to lower 48 is fair game, so we'll see what happens. Siding with seasonal trend and gut for now *IF* the SSWE even plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 20 minutes ago, mappy said: I just want ~3" more to beat my abysmal total of 12" last year, and I'm good. It can nickel and dime its way there too and I wouldn't complain. You already have 9 inches for the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 14 minutes ago, mappy said: I just want ~3" more to beat my abysmal total of 12" last year, and I'm good. It can nickel and dime its way there too and I wouldn't complain. I have two ways a winter can be a "win" to me. And the snow total has nothing to do with it. I've enjoyed 20" winters more then 30" ones. If we get a big ticket event of 10" or more then I'm ok with it. Doesn't mean it's automatically a great winter but it's on my acceptable list. The other way is if i get a legit winters period which I define as a 7-10 day period with snowcover that covers the grass. It doesn't have to be 10". I'd have been cool with 1977 when this area had a month of snowcover around 4-5" from several 2-3" events. Either of those and I'm good. When a winter lacks both an extended snowcover period or a big storm then it's on my total fail list. That's what made last week so frustrating for me. I was so close to a win for the winter. That clipper on dec 30th dropped 2" here but 4" only 15 miles to my north. The 2" sublimated some and blew around and so I had some snow but ended up 1-2" short if my standard. Meanwhile I've driven north into PA a few times and only a 20 min drive to my north definitely met my win standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The 2-4 week strat lag iirc is for a phase change of the ao. We usually start talking about SSW events when the ao is positive. Right now the ao is already turning negative as the strat is getting hit. In this case it could help reinforce an existing -ao. The next 2 weeks will probably tell us all we need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 So, if you're feeling poorly about the amount of snow you've had ............ we've had about 1.5" here for the season. So, feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: So, if you're feeling poorly about the amount of snow you've had ............ we've had about 1.5" here for the season. So, feel better. I have measured over 2 BARELY. But yeah. It has been an abysmal 2 year stretch out here. I am waiting on the 12Z 3K to finish. The 6Z gave a decent thump of snow around midday Saturday. Might be able to steal an inch on the backside of this one? And this 3K run screws us BIGLY. What else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looking through the EPS members individually there is definitely a chance of a wintry thump at the end of the storm on Saturday. Can’t see the mid levels but there are quite a few members with a fairly significant amount of precip left with temps below 32 at or just beyond DCA. None of them are snow though fyi except for one or two members... and only 3 have measurable snow into DC at 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 hours ago, anotherman said: Man, this thread has been dead. Maybe there is still a problem with the board? I've never seen it this quiet with possibilities on the horizon... Speaking just for myself, I'm getting caught up with other stuff after tracking events last Thursday and this Monday, and with kids home from school for at least half of the day for four straight weekdays. Others might be in the same boat. I also think I haven't been very excited about the event this weekend because there was never much model support for it. Unfortunately there still isn't, even on the ensembles. It could be a good event for wind and rain though, and we could get lucky and get some frozen on the back end. Next week looks more interesting. The ensembles are starting to show a good signal for a light-to-moderate event in our area. Over half of the Canadian ensemble members and about half of the 00z GEFS members give DC snow around the 16th next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 38 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I have measured over 2 BARELY. But yeah. It has been an abysmal 2 year stretch out here. I am waiting on the 12Z 3K to finish. The 6Z gave a decent thump of snow around midday Saturday. Might be able to steal an inch on the backside of this one? You guys out west deserve some backside thump action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 None of them are snow though fyi except for one or two members... and only 3 have measurable snow into DC at 72 hoursI’ll just take something wintry. Woo sleet. Gives me something to casually watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 this is the best panel off last night's Euro for wintry precip in our area....that's right, I said it was the best https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/significant-weather/20180113-0900z.html EDIT: Next panel does show what is light snow out west, but then it's gone in 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: this is the best panel off last night's Euro for wintry precip in our area....that's right, I said it was the best https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/significant-weather/20180113-0900z.html EDIT: Next panel does show what is light snow out west, but then it's gone in 3 hours Too bad its rain per the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: I have measured over 2 BARELY. But yeah. It has been an abysmal 2 year stretch out here. I am waiting on the 12Z 3K to finish. The 6Z gave a decent thump of snow around midday Saturday. Might be able to steal an inch on the backside of this one? And this 3K run screws us BIGLY. What else is new. and its gone...not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Interstate said: You already have 9 inches for the year? 9.5" actually. Remember, I got 6" from the Dec 9th event so that helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I definitely did some picking and choosing of the more interesting EPS members but some of them seem to suggest an extended period of fairly heavy precipitation when temps are below 32 for various parts of the subforum. There are more members then this, I just got lazy. Based on the snow maps, I assume there is some sort of warm layer making this sleet or FRZA? 12Z euro run yesterday showed a mess at the backside. https://imgur.com/a/n2MGo . <---- album of images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Looks like a tick more after front passes..12z and 18z...mood frozen perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 29 minutes ago, Ji said: and its gone...not even close Yep. And now the RGEM and 3K look identical on the track. We are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 GFS not half bad for next week. Plenty of time to get better though. A few inches for everyone... Eta: Just need a few more stretchy boobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 GFS tries a little harder for next week with a stronger shortwave, but still would like to see it dig farther south. But does give the metro areas and points east a decent light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Gfs still doesn't want to dig enough next week. The trough is closing off to our northwest and so the surface turns the corner west of us and not even digs to our latitude. On the upside it is seeming more energetic as we get closer so if we can get a better track it could be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: GFS not half bad for next week. Plenty of time to get better though. A few inches for everyone... Eta: Just need a few more stretchy boobs. Not everyone. Just the same places that have been getting the snow all winter. The I-81 snow drought continues per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: You guys out west deserve some backside thump action. Not sure I like the sound of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Overall it was an improvement. Get the upper low to dig another 100 miles and we could see something more than another 1" event. Need to get the surface system to pop south of us so we can get some eastery component and moisture transport into our area. If it pops east and moves northeast we're left dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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