Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 CMC and JMA have a coastal next weekend and cold enough....0z eps weak front off coast. 12z eps should be interesting. Then theres the euro op. Never thought I would say it but looks like the euro is out to lunch with the handling of the ull over the gulf early to mid week. Ends up hanging it there then gets phased into a cutter. Could be right, could be wrong. Seems suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 GEFS keeps the -EPO ridge going strong through about hr270. Then the GOA trough swings in and it’s torch city. Actually the pattern on the GEFS looks decent around the 14-16th before the torch. Nice PNA ridge axis and the WAR nearby to keep the flow backed toward us. After the 16th it’s a torch, but the AO is clearly negative, maybe quite negative. AO is going to cause lr forecasters fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Euro was a close the shades run for sure. Nothing even close and terrible look building at the end. Big rain next weekend at least so that should help with the salt problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS keeps the -EPO ridge going strong through about hr270. Then the GOA trough swings in and it’s torch city. Actually the pattern on the GEFS looks decent around the 14-16th before the torch. Nice PNA ridge axis and the WAR nearby to keep the flow backed toward us. After the 16th it’s a torch, but the AO is clearly negative, maybe quite negative. AO is going to cause lr forecasters fits. Reminds me of Dec 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Going against my own advice looking out in la la land but GEPS flipped in the lr......-ao/-nao.....trof retrograding to W AK and subsequently you can see the epo ridge trying to show up in response. I think any crud look is transient. Biggest takeaway I am seeing lr is we FINALLY are seeing some sort of ATL help on most ens even if just a muted signal. WAR signal there as well. Im sure the look will change, the lr has been inconsistent all season. But IF the GEPS has any clue shortly after this period we could be setting up for a revisit to cold and even more active of a pattern later in the month. The way we get there we will need to see the rain to get to the rainbow, but again, I think any "thaw" or crud look is short lived and transient during a reload. Doom and gloom talk (not you Bob or the other veterans) should be taken with many grains of salt. We cant stay -10 BN or more all month. At some point the cold runs out. It almost always does for a brief spell. I dont ever recall a year where we went late Dec thru late Feb significantly (-10 or more BN) wall to wall without a brief relax. I know the argument is how long and IF we return to cold, but I am feeling confident again that this reload is somewhat transient and we go back to BN and stormier by late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Mom Bob's cancelling winter again and it's not even Saturday yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Mom Bob's cancelling winter again and it's not even Saturday yet Years of JI hanging around can taint the best of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Mom Bob's cancelling winter again and it's not even Saturday yet Hey now, I didn't cancel winter. The euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 The king is dead! Eta: I mean dead to me. LOLz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: The king is dead! Eta: I mean dead to me. LOLz Yea, just hug the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, just hug the GFS Just looking over the nootimers...and ouch... Not sure what I saw earlier, but was flipping around as i was headed out the door. ensembles lookin warm no doubt. Get out your shorts, cause 40's and 50's are gonna feel mighty toasty.... We thaw...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 20 2018-Fri Feb 02 2018 NWS is going with mild- and wet for the last half of January. Luke He of the NWS The various model guidance supporting the Week 3-4 outlook is in good agreement today, depicting a trough across the east-central CONUS, while a ridge is indicated over eastern Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle. The CFS and ECMWF ensemble means depict above-normal 500-hPa heights over the eastern CONUS. Calibrated temperature forecasts from the individual models and multi-model combinations of these forecasts favor an enhanced likelihood of above-normal temperatures across the eastern and central CONUS. The various guidance is in good agreement on the precipitation outlook. Near and downstream of a trough, above-median precipitation is favored over parts of the Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Atlantic, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Technical Question.. when I cliick on the map in TT I get a sounding. What exactly is a sounding? It looks look a measurement of dewpoint, temps and a couple of other things at different pressure. My questions are - If I were to click on sounding a 0 hours, is this actual real world sampled data? or is the data that we are shown just extrapolated from the real sample data? How does this pressure relate to altitude? Or does it even relate to altitude at all? I always though that the sounding was a measurement of different items in a vertical column of air.. but maybe I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 20 2018-Fri Feb 02 2018 NWS is going with mild- and wet for the last half of January. Luke He of the NWS The various model guidance supporting the Week 3-4 outlook is in good agreement today, depicting a trough across the east-central CONUS, while a ridge is indicated over eastern Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle. The CFS and ECMWF ensemble means depict above-normal 500-hPa heights over the eastern CONUS. Calibrated temperature forecasts from the individual models and multi-model combinations of these forecasts favor an enhanced likelihood of above-normal temperatures across the eastern and central CONUS. The various guidance is in good agreement on the precipitation outlook. Near and downstream of a trough, above-median precipitation is favored over parts of the Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Atlantic, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast area. Good. We need a break. I am serious. I am also bald so this weather is really wearing me down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Just looking over the nootimers...and ouch... Not sure what I saw earlier, but was flipping around as i was headed out the door. ensembles lookin warm no doubt. Get out your shorts, cause 40's and 50's are gonna feel mighty toasty.... We thaw...... Yeah it sucks but we never make it through a winter without a major warm up. Hopefully this one can be out of our system without eating up too much of our prime climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 You know what? Bring on the torch. We need to change this horrid pattern anyways. And my electric bill will be acceptable again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 I don't mind the torch for brief amounts of time, assuming it's just a regular torch (50s) and not acetylene (70s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah it sucks but we never make it through a winter without a major warm up. Hopefully this one can be out of our system without eating up too much of our prime climo. couldnt agree more. Oh well....its happy hour, so good model runs or bad model runs.....its happy hour (heads for drink...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 At least the gfs moved towards instead of away from some winter wx here on Monday. Precip moves in faster and the northern stream pressing more so the northern tier is still in the game for some snow/sleet. If the gfs is just a few degrees too warm then everyone is in the game for some ice. Looks more like the cmc than the euro. That's for sure. Go North America! Booo Europe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: At least the gfs moved towards instead of away from some winter wx here on Monday. Precip moves in faster and the northern stream pressing more so the northern tier is still in the game for some snow/sleet. If the gfs is just a few degrees too warm then everyone is in the game for some ice. Looks more like the cmc than the euro. That's for sure. Go North America! Booo Europe! Yep. King is dead to us..... till he shows next snowstorm. Lol friggin happy hour gfs trolling us. Suckaas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2018 Author Share Posted January 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Just now, pasnownut said: Yep. King is dead to us..... till he shows next snowstorm. Lol friggin happy hour gfs trolling us. Suckaas We used to have a rule around here that the gfs was best with the NS and the euro best with the SS. Then they both got "upgraded" and blurred everything. The gfs has been screwey with precip during synoptic events but it definitely seems better to me in the mid range with h5 this winter. I kinda liked what I saw at h5 on the 18z gfs so I'll hug that no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 And by trolling I mean 540’s n r/s line ticked south. 2 bumps more n well looky what we have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We used to have a rule around here that the gfs was best with the NS and the euro best with the SS. Then they both got "upgraded" and blurred everything. The gfs has been screwey with precip during synoptic events but it definitely seems better to me in the mid range with h5 this winter. I kinda liked what I saw at h5 on the 18z gfs so I'll hug that no problem. I get ya. I remember the euro upgrades being done (but not what they were). Prob above my pay grade anyway. Regardless imo it has seemingly lost some of its edge. Would prob b fun to c verification scores pre tune up to post tune up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 Yea, just hug the GFSThis and even the eps are 2 prime examples why I've tried not to look past 10 days on the ens means this year. All 3 major ens families now have backed off the warmish episode that many folks were touting over the next 10 days, taking us to mid January. Forget about the super lr post day 10. Just looking thru 240 the look is not bad. PNA ridge out west, trof in the east, southern stream activity, storm chances, active ns flow, -ao. As we approach day 10 the trof over the Aleutian Islands is trying to pump a ridge out ahead of it connecting with the ao. What happens post 240 hrs this year anyway really is a crapshoot. I dont know where we can find verification numbers on this but Im fairly certain the ens are performing poorer than normal years in the 11-15 day range this year. I've also noticed the eps and gefs have often tried to mirror one another at this range several times since mid November with the GEPS showing different tenneconnection anomalies. Maybe the major warmup is real. But the next 10 days were progged to be a crud pattern 11 days ago and now the gloom and doom teleconnections have been muted, we have a +pna, trof in the east, and cold air is still nearby with any 'warmth' over the next 10 days muted from prior progs and also transient. If you showed me days 8-10 on the current ens and days 11+ didn't exist, I think we would be assuming a reload was coming to bolster the pattern. Im just not buying the extreme persistent AN+ Eastern US pattern being touted past day 10. Again, Im not saying it wont happen. I actually lean towards the AN look. I just feel the ens are too gung ho and the pattern reload will be faster and more muted than being shown. Hopefully we step back from the extreme look over the next several runs. Enjoying the discussion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, MDstorm said: Porn I also follow him on twitville and like his reads. Up there w Maisello and Cosgrove imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 i just dont see how the epo ridge that has been a concrete fixture for some time now and at times coming close to breaking SD records, if not breaking them, will just vanish and be replaced with a trof. If anything when we get towards mid month, as we have seen all winter, when that Aleutian trof moves in it should act to pump heights once again regenerating the epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 PornRidge bridge from the heavens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2018 Share Posted January 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I also follow him on twitville and like his reads. Up there w Maisello and Cosgrove imo. How can you put those 2 in the same post. Lol HM really, really knows his stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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