Kleimax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Also @Kleimax GFS is working on TT right now. It's out to hr 24, so it may just be a NAM thing Yeh I see. The HRRRs also haven't been running fully either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 20 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Two more big boobs east would be optimal. dreams... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 19 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Two more big boobs east would be optimal. This boob thing happening has 100% of my attention is DT's Pamela Anderson pattern involved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 What a weak H5 look compared to 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The OV people now know how it feels to be a Mid Atlantic'er Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: The OV people now know how it feels to be a Mid Atlantic'er Although they still get 2-6 inches as of now... which is much better than we have done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, Interstate said: Although they still get 2-6 inches as of now... which is much better than we have done. The trend ain't their friend, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: The trend ain't their friend, that's for sure. We all know how that feels, but some of the posts in their storm thread are pretty sad to be honest. Apparently, Indianapolis hasn't had a WSW since March 1st, 2015. Don't know if this is true, but that's kinda sad if you're a snow lover. I guess what comes around goes around, and they'll eventually get their big storm while we are 60 degrees and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cobalt said: We all know how that feels, but some of the posts in their storm thread are pretty sad to be honest. Apparently, Indianapolis hasn't had a WSW since March 1st, 2015. Don't know if this is true, but that's kinda sad if you're a snow lover. I guess what comes around goes around, and they'll eventually get their big storm while we are 60 degrees and rain. They, along with us, need to move to Salisbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 38 minutes ago, Cobalt said: We all know how that feels, but some of the posts in their storm thread are pretty sad to be honest. Apparently, Indianapolis hasn't had a WSW since March 1st, 2015. Don't know if this is true, but that's kinda sad if you're a snow lover. I guess what comes around goes around, and they'll eventually get their big storm while we are 60 degrees and rain. Yeah but don't forget, other than the the fluke Jan 2016 event (in an otherwise pretty horrid winter), that could be said about a large portion of MA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, MountainGeek said: Yeah but don't forget, other than the the fluke Jan 2016 event (in an otherwise pretty horrid winter), that could be said about a large portion of MA as well. While of course less numerous, many people confirmed the WSW for the Presidents Day 2016 storm, and technically, March 2017 counts, but not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 This thing is close to being a good event, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, NovaTarHeel said: This thing is close to being a good event, no? Eh, maybe for extreme NW parts of this forum. Euro was interesting, since it was a tad further West, but it was also slower, which allowed a burst of snow to get in to our Western suburbs. The storm being slower is a big part of the equation too, but even if everything in the next 24 hours breaks our way, it would be difficult to get a decent event out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 euro trying with the day 7 storm. If it misses it won't be for lack of effort. Edit: backed the thing over us 2/25/2010 style Don't have precip but pretty sure we got something out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: While of course less numerous, many people confirmed the WSW for the Presidents Day 2016 storm, and technically, March 2017 counts, but not really. No. No minimizing. Beltways here which is a LOT of people are two years since last verified warning level snow. Last March’s storm sucked ass for the beltways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Looks like a weaker 2/25/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 33 minutes ago, Amped said: euro trying with the day 7 storm. If it misses it won't be for lack of effort. Edit: backed the thing over us 2/25/2010 style Don't have precip but pretty sure we got something out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 all this hype about "Deep Thunder" so I watched it last night. Had some good POV angles but it was meh otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 6 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: all this hype about "Deep Thunder" so I watched it last night. Had some good POV angles but it was meh otherwise Did it have any Euro models in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Looking through the EPS members individually there is definitely a chance of a wintry thump at the end of the storm on Saturday. Can’t see the mid levels but there are quite a few members with a fairly significant amount of precip left with temps below 32 at or just beyond DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Did it have any Euro models in it? Stick to the American models! Euro has a "more hair bias" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Man, this thread has been dead. Maybe there is still a problem with the board? I've never seen it this quiet with possibilities on the horizon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Every time I bring up strat I feel the need to add the disclaimer that I know very little about the subject....I think I know the basics. 00z and 06z GEFS really go nuts in the LR with warming at all levels. I know the LR can certainly be jumpy with regards to strat forecasts but there has been a theme over the past week. Things warm then cool toward day 10 and then the warming goes off the chart. It's not too often you see this in an ens mean this far out..Hopefully late Jan and Feb will be rockin ETA: Euro looks very similar to the GEFS at D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Man, this thread has been dead. Maybe there is still a problem with the board? I've never seen it this quiet with possibilities on the horizon...I think many (not all) in this subforum are losing hope and have thrown in the towel after wasting weeks of cold. It's normal human reaction....the letdown. Couple this with no major snows here since Jan 2016, near 60 degree temps next day or so, well-respected veteran members touting a guaranteed thaw in the LR (which continues to get delayed and muted, mind you), and the reaper reaping souls left and right and it's not hard to see why things are slow in here. Some of regular posters are becoming more optimistic and I expect things to pick up in here by 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 12 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Every time I bring up strat I feel the need to add the disclaimer that I know very little about the subject....I think I know the basics. 00z and 06z GEFS really go nuts in the LR with warming at all levels. I know the LR can certainly be jumpy with regards to strat forecasts but there has been a theme over the past week. Things warm then cool toward day 10 and then the warming goes off the chart. It's not too often you see this in an ens mean this far out..Hopefully late Jan and Feb will be rockin ETA: Euro looks very similar to the GEFS at D10 funny.. looks very much like Ying Yang laying on it side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 20 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Every time I bring up strat I feel the need to add the disclaimer that I know very little about the subject....I think I know the basics. 00z and 06z GEFS really go nuts in the LR with warming at all levels. I know the LR can certainly be jumpy with regards to strat forecasts but there has been a theme over the past week. Things warm then cool toward day 10 and then the warming goes off the chart. It's not too often you see this in an ens mean this far out..Hopefully late Jan and Feb will be rockin ETA: Euro looks very similar to the GEFS at D10 Judah seems to be on board. I really do think we’ll be rockin and rollin late January and most of February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 27 minutes ago, anotherman said: Man, this thread has been dead. Maybe there is still a problem with the board? I've never seen it this quiet with possibilities on the horizon... Given how poorly the models have delivered on possibilities lately I think there is a lot of buyer beware going on. We need proof of a -AO really showing up. we need proof that the models won't keep trending away from storms as they have. We need proof that once this warmth gets shoved out Saturday we can get a non hostile Pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 If the threat next week ends up being all northern stream then we're going to struggle to win. But what to look for is if other guidance trends towards the euro at h5. Looking at some of the few wins historically around here from a solely northern stream miller b we want to see a sharper h5 trough coming in then a close off to our south. The euro showed that hence we got snow on it. The other models show what we don't want. A broad trough coming in that closes off to our north. If we want any chance we need a trend towards the euro at h5. Right now the gfs look (not good) has more support across guidance but it is trending the right way. We want this..... not this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Judah seems to be on board. I really do think we’ll be rockin and rollin late January and most of February... Yeah, I know its not a 1:1 correlation with a warming strat and winter weather hear in the MA but I see it as something we can throw into the (positives) pile. If we can get the MJO to play nice along with a SSW event...look out below! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 And by "win" I mean we get some accumulating snow. 1-3" south of D.C. And 3-6" in our northern half is a win for a northern branch system. In over 100 years of records there are only a few northern stream miller b storms that even have done that much. We have been dumped on by some northern stream dominant miller bs but even those had some hybrid qualities and tapped some gulf moisture on the way in. This right now looks like a pure northern stream miller b with no hybrid qualities. If that remains set expectations accordingly. If youre in VA and get 2" it's a win. If you're in MD and get 4" go running in the street naked. If the fact that somewhere to our north is going to get way more is going to bother you best to skip this one. Your setting yourself up to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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