Chris78 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: I Still think we have a shot at seeing some flakes out here. Once again we have model disagreement 72 hours out from an event. But I do like having the Euro shift east. It was such a huge shift that it broke AmericanWx for a few hours Definitely. I think we have a shot at something the further west you are. Let's hope and pray the east trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 This is hysterical from the 18Z GFS. Apparently the eastern shore is the new snow zone and we have a dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Quasievil said: This is hysterical from the 18Z GFS. Apparently the eastern shore is the new snow zone and we have a dome. If that verified, I would believe that there is some higher power that hates Baltimore/DC snowlovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Definitely. I think we have a shot at something the further west you are. Let's hope and pray the east trend continues. SE is what we want. East just dry slots us. Like down to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: SE is what we want. East just dry slots us. Like down to RDU. True. Through the Carolinas and off the VA. Capes. Is that too much to ask? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 @Isotherm Hey man, wanted your opinion on what is happening in the strat right now. The signal on the euro keeps getting stronger for disturbance/warming at 10/30/50hpa over the next 10 days. GFS/GEFS not much different. Euro has been showing a split below 10hpa as well. Looks similar to what we've seen in the past with a brief split and consolidation but seeing this combined with the troposphere showing a very strong block on all guidance over the next 10 days has me wondering is this is the beginning of the real deal. CFS is interesting @ 10hpa for Feb as well. I don't know nearly as much as others with strat stuff but I'm noticing things going on right now that makes me wonder about a legit strat event coupling with the troposphere. Is there a chance at a legit blocking event coming up or is it all a head fake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 18 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: If that verified, I would believe that there is some higher power that hates Baltimore/DC snowlovers. He/she bestowed you upon our forum, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 it sounds like we need to stay abreast of the saturday situation with possibly some more cleavage next week. too much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 If the midweek shortwave next week is 100% northern stream with no overrunning connection then we're going to have hard time getting it to work out. GEFS has some decent solutions in the mix (as does the EPS) but the ones that do well either dig deep or pull up some overrunning precip from the TN valley. Damn northern stream winters are always an uphill freekin battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the midweek shortwave next week is 100% northern stream with no overrunning connection then we're going to have hard time getting it to work out. GEFS has some decent solutions in the mix (as does the EPS) but the ones that do well either dig deep or pull up some overrunning precip from the TN valley. Damn northern stream winters are always an uphill freekin battle. i'm just glad it's gonna get cold again. would be kinda weird to have a partially frozen potomac in early jan and then winter ending. january is a better month for us. generally easier to sneak a snowstorm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: i'm just glad it's gonna get cold again. would be kinda weird to have a partially frozen potomac in early jan and then winter ending. january is a better month for us. generally easier to sneak a snowstorm in. Yea, if the -AO isn't a hit and run then anything stands a chance at sliding under us even if the pac sucks. Is what it is. I'm not writing off anything of course. Just pointing out the obvious. I do like seeing some blocked flow. Unusually good things can happen even when the pattern is out of sync. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Getting consistent annual snowfall doesn't happen in this area, but we are one of the few places in the world (outside of the mountain regions) that can experience relatively frequent 2'+ snow storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 FWIW the ICON is well east on its 18z run not sure if anyone has seen it. Tropical tidbits just added it. Has the low crossing the mouth of the Chesapeake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 I would almost rather the next system be amped and dump on western OH and spare me the hope of a few mangled flakes...It would at least prove things can amplify this winter. I dont count the ocean storm...that was a unique and relatively rare storm. At this rate we need a modeled 980 over Detroit 3-5 days out and because of the seasonal trend we end up with a 1002 strung out mess on VA beach. I guess stout HLB can change this whole trend of dampening waves as they head east....Need to slow the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 36 minutes ago, Kleimax said: FWIW the ICON is well east on its 18z run not sure if anyone has seen it. Tropical tidbits just added it. Has the low crossing the mouth of the Chesapeake Still rain. East doesn’t mean frozen I suppose. SE and slower is what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 There are also caveats to the PAC vs ATL debate. If the Pacific is just a pile of garbage bad then it's hard for the Atlantic to overcome. But if it's just kinda bad then sometimes in peak climo blocking can force a system under and it's just cold enough for a sloppy event. Also late in the season the nao can dominate the pattern because of the shorter wavelengths things can buckle so much that a pad Pacific can be overcome. Neither of those things invalidates what bob said which is true in general we need both to help in order to have a good chance. Just pointing out there are exceptions to every rule. Didnt think about a flood of PAC air I should have noted it wont work with a -pna *most likely* or without an epo ridge. Im sure there examples tho of crud PAC and epic ATL that worked out. I briefly browsed online but couldnt find a good site that had NESIS level 3 or higher and teleconnections. Will have to pull out the Kocin book later. I probably should have prefaced my original post by stating for most MECS+ snows we need the ATL working. There is really no question the correlation between the -NAO and high level NESIS events. I know there are examples of a +NAO working and we could debate this for days the importance of this for MECS+ but yeah, I do agree we need some help upstream to get the cold as -AO cant work alone. Doesnt need to be an epic look on either side tho with record shattering SD's. What I was getting at was if hoping for a MECS+, history suggests we need the ATL majority of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 52 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Still rain. East doesn’t mean frozen I suppose. SE and slower is what we need. Thete is a very brief switch to snow on the Icon around the cities. So it is still trending positively. But ohhh, those poor Ohio weenies if this is correct. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018011018&fh=78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 14 hours ago, mitchnick said: Your last sentence is exactly what I said. But you missed my other statement that giving the atmosphere a relaxation then having the cold return "may" be what is needed to shake a current lousy pattern of bad luck. This is my opinion based on years of obs. You don't have to believe it. I don't need group support nor does it matter that people agree with me. We apparently disagree on the issue. So what. We probably don't like the same food either. Lol. But that doesn't mean we don't share the ultimate desire for it to snow. Mitch I like debating with you. You're intelligent. And even though we rarely agree I respect you and I don't take these things seriously. I don't have a problem with you thinking whatever you like. And I'm not trying to have a popularity contest on veiws. You offer your pov. I offer mine. That's it. Nothing more to it. One thing to consider is I am getting some snow. I'm over 10" now. It's all small stuff but if I have to choose between continuing to nickel and dime my way along and hope to get lucky or the next pattern flip is to cold/snowy I'll take that over a shutout pattern and hope the next is snowy. At least it's snowing. Maybe not a lot. But it could be way worse. (Like last year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Thete is a very brief switch to snow on the Icon around the cities. So it is still trending positively. But ohhh, those poor Ohio weenies if this is correct. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018011018&fh=78 Where's the beef? No real snow anywhere anymore except upstate ny. Amazing if what was a classic cutter bomb becomes a progressive string out garbage wave. The year of anti amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Jan 30-31 is probably the first real window of opportunity for a major snowfall event. You might grind an inch or two out of these fronts and clippers with some luck, but I expect the pattern to improve at the end of the month. Hopefully we'll get this one to take a better track than Jan 2-4 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 You know how we are always unhappy about Boston getting a lot of torrential snow, right? Well, take heart. They are going to get walloped again, HARD, by 3 to 4 inches of regular RAIN. That should sog up all of their precious snow. Then it will get cold there, it will turn to solid ICE, and many New Englanders there will fall HARD on that glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 47 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Jan 30-31 is probably the first real window of opportunity for a major snowfall event. You might grind an inch or two out of these fronts and clippers with some luck, but I expect the pattern to improve at the end of the month. Hopefully we'll get this one to take a better track than Jan 2-4 did. Roger, what is your reasoning here, is it energy related like earlier in the month, or more a typical pattern change ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 NAM flips everyone to something wintry as the storm pulls away from us. Everything continues eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: NAM flips everyone to something wintry as the storm pulls away from us. Everything continues eastward. Including the Ohio weenies who continue walking east after reaching the Atlantic City boardwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: GFS looks like the euro now. Interesting. How far east can we will this thing? 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Let's go with boob. Just 1 to 2 more boobs east and we're good. Two more big boobs east would be optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Anyone else having issues with TT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Just now, Kleimax said: Anyone else having issues with TT? Yeah, it's not working for whatever reason. It did this a few weeks back. I'm using PivotalWeather right now since the interface is better than weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Anyone else having issues with TT? 00z NAM didn’t seem to come out on it but that’s all I’ve noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Don't have the full run, but of course "Deep Thunder" is the hype model, so any good hits are highlighted on Twitter. Funny enough, it's kinda led this SE trend. When will we have verification scores from Deep Thunder? Seems pretty jumpy, that's for sure. Good news is that everything (as of now) is trending SE, this isn't as ridiculous as it would be, but it's way out there right now. Funny if verified. Have a feeling farthest NW and West burbs (you know who you are) have a better chance at any snow. 0z runs should confirm those beliefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Also @Kleimax GFS is working on TT right now. It's out to hr 24, so it may just be a NAM thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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