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January Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Isn’t JI supposed to be in the Ohio forum trolling right now? :lol:

So how far are we from something fun for Saturday?  A few more trending ticks east? Pop a secondary on the coast possible? 

The low does reform but most likely well to our northeast. 

Our most likely frozen scenario(if it occurs) would be ice instead of snow, as the 700mb low tracks well west of the surface low, therefore thermals are too warm for snow until we dry slot. 

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51 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie has the clipper on day 6 off the 12z run. Similar to Euro. But like yesterday, the EPS like to our north. BUT, it's good to see the more skilled operationals bringing it to our south a wee bit.

 

UKIE.DAY 6.5H.gif

ukie.day 6.precip.2.png

UKIE.DAY 6.SLP.png

Euro an UKMEt look  similar to the January 2005 snowstorm. Something to watch, future runs may show some decent snow from Philly north, while we get screwed with 3-6".

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05.html

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@Amped

screwed with 3-6"???  That was a win. We got 3-6" from a pure northern stream miller b. Those are typically total fails. And it wasn't some big bust once the models lost the stj idea around 3-4 days out it became obvious that's what it was going to be. Unless you believed that crazy DT map he put out the night before. 

If you think a 3-6" snow is being screwed you live in the wrong place or you just setting yourself up to be disappointed. 

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14 hours ago, MountainGeek said:

Thanks for the insight. Sounds like we're trying to use finite compute resources running imperfect agorithms to model irreducible complexity inside a chaotic system, all with pinpoint accuracy.

Rather than bashing the models, I'd say it's pretty impressive that they've come as far as they have over the last several years. And I think many people unfairly penalize a model when it gets a few minor details wrong IMBY or is off by 50 miles, completely missing the fact that it nailed all the large scale features from a few days out. 

This. That's how I feel. Rather then complain that we can't predict all the intricate variables like heat transfer between plants, soil, water, air and solar radiation input to model the entire atmosphere with pinpoint accuracy from 7 days away I marvel that we can even come close.  The level of math we're talking about requires genius level expertise. Maybe it's because I have at least some knowledge of what goes on behind the curtain here but it seems disrespectful the way some trash what to me is a marvel of modern science constructed by truly brilliant dedicated people. 

Furthermore picking out DCs next snow from 200 hours isn't the point. We do this for fun. That's fine. The point of numeric weather prediction is to try to save lives.  The warning time on life threatening weather has been extended drastically with NWP and it saves lives.  We haven't yet advanced to the point of seeing specific details at long leads.  Once in a while under the right circumstances the guidance will and it should be celebrated as a victory of our scientific advancement not a bar to declare everything else a failure. People are misusing the models.  It's fine for us to look at them and dream and discuss fantasy storms for fun but to then get frustrated when some unicorn storm doesn't work out and declare the guidance useless is ignorant.

I should probably just ignore some people.  But I get heated when people who have no idea what they're talking about are throwing stones and questioning the integrity of hard working dedicated people.  Way too much of that going on in general nowadays.

 

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6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

We can only hope, they deserve it. I'm in Rochester New York and it's 45 degrees and not really all that much snow on the ground. They need more here too

We really do here in the Boston area. I mean over 25" of powder at this point for the season is just not enough ;)

But seriously I hope you guys can cash in on something soon. Last year was just pitiful down there. Or just do like me and move up here. I know, easier said than done but climo is awesome up here

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1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said:

We really do here in the Boston area. I mean over 25" of powder at this point for the season is just not enough ;)

But seriously I hope you guys can cash in on something soon. Last year was just pitiful down there. Or just do like me and move up here. I know, easier said than done but climo is awesome up here

I'd much prefer to get less snow than live in a place like Boston. Thanks for reminding me though. 

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