87storms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the euro shifts another 75-100 miles east and fires off the trailing wave off the coast then the next snowstorm is this weekend. i'm in. a couple of days of 50s is perfectly acceptable prior to the next tracking window. edit: looking at the gfs it doesn't look entirely impossible if that 2nd wave slows down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the euro shifts another 75-100 miles east and fires off the trailing wave off the coast then the next snowstorm is this weekend. The progressive nature of things has certainly made that more than just a fantasy over the past few days of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, North Balti Zen said: The progressive nature of things has certainly made that more than just a fantasy over the past few days of model runs. Mostly a tongue in cheek post but it was closer to something. Still jacked up and unlikely but a decent shift towards a trailer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 hours ago, Ji said: Hoping for a warm pattern in the heart of winter is probably the silliest thing ive ever heard. As PSU said, try wishing for a a different pattern that still involves cold air...like the one we might be getting for the next 2 weeks. Its a different pattern but its not a warm pattern alhough their will be warm days. Hoping for a warm pattern in our areas is very risky because we may never go back to cold. Now go do something useful like checking the temps in Canada! learn how to read dude I want something to change the pattern, even if it includes a thaw but guess what? while you're here whining, the pattern HAS changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 CTL+ALT+DEL Now I know what withdraw feels like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 25 degree slide on Saturday morning to afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Ukie has the clipper on day 6 off the 12z run. Similar to Euro. But like yesterday, the EPS like to our north. BUT, it's good to see the more skilled operationals bringing it to our south a wee bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Euro went way east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Euro went way east?EURO is an ice storm... only 72 hours away. Not sure how well it would accrete given temps the day before and rain before but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, smokeybandit said: Euro went way east? It would finish as freezing rain verbatim. lol. Big shift. A long ways from snow but a shift nonetheless. Then next week is a drawn out multiple weak wave 1-4" over several days. Trough is really sharp and crawls through. In general the setup favors north of us but it was an ok run for fantasy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, smokeybandit said: Euro went way east? In a nutshell, the Euro.... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/snow-depth-in/20180117-1800z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: In a nutshell, the Euro.... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/snow-depth-in/20180117-1800z.html this is for next week, not weekend Sorry Smokey, I thought that's what you were referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I was referring to this https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/951168546054266880 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: this is for next week, not weekend Sorry Smokey, I thought that's what you were referring to. It's convoluted how it happens though. the 1-4" falls over like 30 hours. Smells like a typical weak miller b but the blocking over the pole is starting to wreak some havoc on how things progress. Interestingly...and closer in time...about half the ens members finish with some light snow on Sat. A couple with a few inches. Two more bumps and we could have one of those warm rainstorms that flip at the end and paste things around here. Seems like a major stretch but it's a weird year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's convoluted how it happens though. the 1-4" falls over like 30 hours. Smells like a typical weak miller b but the blocking over the pole is starting to wreak some havoc on how things progress. Interestingly...and closer in time...about half the ens members finish with some light snow on Sat. A couple with a few inches. Two more bumps and we could have one of those warm rainstorms that flip at the end and paste things around here. Seems like a major stretch but it's a weird year. The shoving of everything east will just not be denied I guess. Weird it is nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's convoluted how it happens though. the 1-4" falls over like 30 hours. Smells like a typical weak miller b but the blocking over the pole is starting to wreak some havoc on how things progress. Interestingly...and closer in time...about half the ens members finish with some light snow on Sat. A couple with a few inches. Two more bumps and we could have one of those warm rainstorms that flip at the end and paste things around here. Seems like a major stretch but it's a weird year. Let it fly Bob, everything is a stretch around here. Let's make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Let it fly Bob, everything is a stretch around here. Let's make it happen. The Mid Atlantic is the stretch mark of the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The h5 is so nice next week I keep waiting for an op run to go nuts and get people excited. So far they see the energy but none are really doing much at the surface. It wouldnt take much though. There are several nice vort passes with a pretty deep trough and good axis and room to amplify something if one of those decides to be "THE ONE". With our luck they will all compete for space and we will get a series of flizzards that barely whiten the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Let it fly Bob, everything is a stretch around here. Let's make it happen. Eventually something is going to break in our favor. It just has that feel. Some years are just too warm for too long to provide much hope. This year seems to want to work the other way. The control run has an insanely weird cutoff in the long range. It backs in, stalls, and then snows and it does it during a marginal base state. Very odd run. Lots of ens members have weird or unusual progression right now. That stout AO popping is something that can break things our way even in a flawed pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's convoluted how it happens though. the 1-4" falls over like 30 hours. Smells like a typical weak miller b but the blocking over the pole is starting to wreak some havoc on how things progress. Interestingly...and closer in time...about half the ens members finish with some light snow on Sat. A couple with a few inches. Two more bumps and we could have one of those warm rainstorms that flip at the end and paste things around here. Seems like a major stretch but it's a weird year. I got desperate and read some "other" weather forums while the board was down. There was mentioning of the L riding up the bay and some were surprised that with this type of setup, there is usually a transfer to the coast, but that was not happening. They gave theories on why... any truth? (for the Fri/saturday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The h5 is so nice next week I keep waiting for an op run to go nuts and get people excited. So far they see the energy but none are really doing much at the surface. It wouldnt take much though. There are several nice vort passes with a pretty deep trough and good axis and room to amplify something if one of those decides to be "THE ONE". With our luck they will all compete for space and we will get a series of flizzards that barely whiten the ground. It's all slowing down too. Everything across the conus hits the brakes after this weekend. We're going to get some interesting looks over the next 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Per this site, the 32 degree line crosses somewhere between 3AM on Saturday https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/temperature-f/20180113-0900z.html and 6AM on Saturday https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/temperature-f/20180113-1200z.html according to this link, for the 6-hour period of 6AM-Noon Saturday, no precip falls around I95 so there can't be much zr I would think https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/precipitation-6h-in/20180113-1800z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Per this site, the 32 degree line crosses somewhere between 3AM on Saturday https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/temperature-f/20180113-0900z.html and 6AM on Saturday https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/temperature-f/20180113-1200z.html according to this link, for the 6-hour period of 6AM-Noon Saturday, no precip falls around I95 so there can't be much zr I would think https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/precipitation-6h-in/20180113-1800z.html Considering how warm it's going to be Friday/Fri night, even if temps dropped below freezing nothing is going to freeze. Maybe on some bushes. lol. What we REALLY need to hope for is the main low to track further east so the mids can get dragged through with a trailer. That could paste things. Again, big time long shot but it's moving that way it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Considering how warm it's going to be Friday/Fri night, even if temps dropped below freezing nothing is going to freeze. Maybe on some bushes. lol. What we REALLY need to hope for is the main low to track further east so the mids can get dragged through with a trailer. That could paste things. Again, big time long shot but it's moving that way it seems. Be nice to see some of the other guidance move that far east too. I'm more than a little leery believing the Euro when it's on its own this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Be nice to see some of the other guidance move that far east too. I'm more than a little leery believing the Euro when it's on its own this year. Yea, me too. Since the entire "event" is strung out along a strong thermal gradient with what appears to be multiple waves, we may not know exactly how it progresses until tomorrow night. The euro made a big shift by backing way down on the strength of the initial wave and is putting more emphasis on the trailing wave. I know this, if I was a weenie in OH I would be sick to my stomach right now. lol. Went from historic to advisory level in 12 hours @ 3 day leads. I know exactly how that bitter pill tastes too. ugh . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 32 minutes ago, mitchnick said: In a nutshell, the Euro.... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/snow-depth-in/20180117-1800z.html I hope the snow depth is in snow inches and the snowfall is in QPF... otherwise the maps don't make since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 I Still think we have a shot at seeing some flakes out here. Once again we have model disagreement 72 hours out from an event. But I do like having the Euro shift east. It was such a huge shift that it broke AmericanWx for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, me too. Since the entire "event" is strung out along a strong thermal gradient with what appears to be multiple waves, we may not know exactly how it progresses until tomorrow night. The euro made a big shift by backing way down on the strength of the initial wave and is putting more emphasis on the trailing wave. I know this, if I was a weenie in OH I would be sick to my stomach right now. lol. Went from historic to advisory level in 12 hours @ 3 day leads. I know exactly how that bitter pill tastes too. ugh . Isn’t JI supposed to be in the Ohio forum trolling right now? So how far are we from something fun for Saturday? A few more trending ticks east? Pop a secondary on the coast possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Isn’t JI supposed to be in the Ohio forum trolling right now? So how far are we from something fun for Saturday? A few more trending ticks east? Pop a secondary on the coast possible? Tick is out, stretch is the new word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I Still think we have a shot at seeing some flakes out here. Once again we have model disagreement 72 hours out from an event. But I do like having the Euro shift east. It was such a huge shift that it broke AmericanWx for a few hours You definitely have a shot. Near the cities is a major stretch. I'm rooting for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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