ATreglown Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, ATreglown said: Move this to a different area, but this seems to be a hot topic area so I am putting this here for now. 7.6 earthquake in Honduras. An earthquake struck the Caribbean Tuesday evening, according to the United States Geological Survey Originally assessed as a magnitude 7.8, the quake was later downgraded to 7.6 by authorities The USGS said that hazardous tsunami waves were "possible" for coasts of Belize, Cuba, Honduras, Mexico, Cayman Islands and Jamaica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Now a 48-72 hour bust is a big deal. That's a big change in warning time on synoptic events. Maybe someday we can push that to 7 days with accuracy but not yet. Curious what you (and the other experts here) think the primary limiting factors are in models reaching the consistent 7-day accuracy milestone. Computing power will continue to increase, and I can see improvements in resolution and/or the physics as a higher number of more accurate calculations can be performed within a reasonable timeframe. Obviously biases get tweaked and hopefully corrected over time as well. IMO the input side is always going to be a challenge, as we could theoretically create a perfect model that still doesn't verify well out in time due to extrapolated error based on slightly incorrect (but necessary) assumptions at initialization. I guess if we finally create the perfect model and feed it real-time data sampled from every point in the atmosphere, we'd be in good shape. It will be interesting to see where this goes in the next decade or two, and if there's some kind of reasonable sweet spot with the data input that we can realistically achieve so that the margin of error is small enough to be insignificant, at least within a 7-day window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Gfs was very close to a good overrunning event. A different version of the euro and another uncomplicated look for an event. Decent jet support, gom connection, and weak surface reflection in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 And you just said "uncomplicated" event! Are you sure you are talking about the MA? I thought we did better when things were " complicated" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I don't remember if it's the ICON or the French model but one (or both) incorporate some of the euro's physics. I specifically remember reading that somewhere. With that being said, the ICON is already showing that it's not good in the med range. It's the French model, which is actually not too bad. I think the ICON is something completely different, more closely related to the NIM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, ATreglown said: And you just said "uncomplicated" event! Are you sure you are talking about the MA? I thought we did better when things were " complicated" LOL Actually the opposite -- we don't do complicated well. Uncomplicated is a much higher success ratio for us. With our climo, there is often little margin and too many things that have to go just right in a complicated setup. Rule of thumb: Complicated + MA = likely fail Complicated + NE = likely pummeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 36 minutes ago, pasnownut said: No worries bud. I know you are “one of us”. In case it hasn’t dawned on you yet (highly unlikely) I sorta dig winter. I let those guys have the summer and step away so they can gloat. I hate Summer. They win. But.....in the winter.....step aside. It’s my time and if the forum doesn’t wanna stand up for what we enjoy during that time, the crew down here is perty cool...and accepting of snow misfits (Just don’t post big snow totals.... Let them always win down here ;). The “amateurs” here are some of the best hobbyists I’ve ever chatted with. Good stuff Nut I have no problem being a misfit, as long as those see me as much of a snow lover as any on this board!! And am always wanting a storm modeled to give me a trace of snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Actually the opposite -- we don't do complicated well. Uncomplicated is a much higher success ratio for us. With our climo, there is often little margin and too many things that have to go just right in a complicated setup. Rule of thumb: Complicated + MA = likely fail Complicated + NE = likely pummeled So, just pray for a very simplistic solution to get some snow IOBY!! Got It!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Im going to go troll the ohio valley board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: Im going to go troll the ohio valley board Lol- check out the cmc first for our area. Tries like 3 times for overrunning then finally succeeds at the end. Overall the gfs and cmc look half decent for us to get some sort of event next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Im going to go troll the ohio valley board Hope you have a memorable visit!! Enjoy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- check out the cmc first for our area. Tries like 3 times for overrunning then finally succeeds at the end. Overall the gfs and cmc look half decent for us to get some sort of event next week. lets talk when the shade of blue over us isnt the lighest possible that TT model page has to offer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 still not giving up on my weekend storm. GEFS with a huge shift east since 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 53 minutes ago, pasnownut said: But like you said if you had to pick one....it would be pacific 10:1 December through February 20th yes. Late feb and march I might roll the dice with the nao. 2014 & 2015 were abnormal. Getting that kind of cold to score in march minus blocking with a non amped system is a long shot overall. Plus that late I'm usually in go big or go home mode so I'll take my chances on some big dig from a nice block and some amped up 1958 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: December through February 20th yes. Late feb and march I might roll the dice with the nao. 2014 & 2015 were abnormal. Getting that kind of cold to score in march minus blocking with a non amped system is a long shot overall. Plus that late I'm usually in go big or go home mode so I'll take my chances on some big dig from a nice block and some amped up 1958 redux. if this is indeed another 2000-01...id love to get another shot at march 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: still not giving up on my weekend storm. GEFS with a huge shift east since 12z Some weenie solutions in there. Skeptical as heck but they're mixed in there. The follow wave has a lot of support regardless. I like that chance much better than this weekend. There's one member that stalls a low off the coast and snows like 1-2' over 2 days. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Some weenie solutions in there. Skeptical as heck but they're mixed in there. The follow wave has a lot of support regardless. I like that chance much better than this weekend. There's one member that stalls a low off the coast and snows like 1-2' over 2 days. Lol yes...i am extremely skeptical of the weekend storm but i kind of coinded it as my storm lol...so i have to go down to the bitter end. Maybe a less amped/more proggressive weekend solution would be better for the following system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, MountainGeek said: Curious what you (and the other experts here) think the primary limiting factors are in models reaching the consistent 7-day accuracy milestone. Computing power will continue to increase, and I can see improvements in resolution and/or the physics as a higher number of more accurate calculations can be performed within a reasonable timeframe. Obviously biases get tweaked and hopefully corrected over time as well. IMO the input side is always going to be a challenge, as we could theoretically create a perfect model that still doesn't verify well out in time due to extrapolated error based on slightly incorrect (but necessary) assumptions at initialization. I guess if we finally create the perfect model and feed it real-time data sampled from every point in the atmosphere, we'd be in good shape. It will be interesting to see where this goes in the next decade or two, and if there's some kind of reasonable sweet spot with the data input that we can realistically achieve so that the margin of error is small enough to be insignificant, at least within a 7-day window. Both. The partial differential equations used are not totally solvable. The tiny errors create chaos that becomes exponential over time. Current mathematicians theorize that even if we perfected a model to eliminate all biases and somehow had perfect data input for all known variables forecasts would still become inaccurate by 10-15 days at most due to the chaos inherent in the equations. Basically the equations are incomplete. But we also can't possibly achieve perfect input. We can't sample 100% of the atmosphere. And then there are things like solar and soil moisture and other variables we can't get 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 0z gefs is a weenie run. A lot of ways to combine precip with just enough cold around at the right times. Overall is wet a heck with 3" mean qpf so plenty of rain in the mix but quite a few hits of all sizes spread out through d6-16. Maybe the -ao is starting to gain more agreement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Both. The partial differential equations used are not totally solvable. The tiny errors create chaos that becomes exponential over time. Current mathematicians theorize that even if we perfected a model to eliminate all biases and somehow had perfect data input for all known variables forecasts would still become inaccurate by 10-15 days at most due to the chaos inherent in the equations. Basically the equations are incomplete. But we also can't possibly achieve perfect input. We can't sample 100% of the atmosphere. And then there are things like solar and soil moisture and other variables we can't get 100%. Thanks for the insight. Sounds like we're trying to use finite compute resources running imperfect agorithms to model irreducible complexity inside a chaotic system, all with pinpoint accuracy. Rather than bashing the models, I'd say it's pretty impressive that they've come as far as they have over the last several years. And I think many people unfairly penalize a model when it gets a few minor details wrong IMBY or is off by 50 miles, completely missing the fact that it nailed all the large scale features from a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 If models were near perfect, tracking storms would be a drag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, Jebman said: If models were near perfect, tracking storms would be a drag. How about just to 5-7 days? Just think, you could schedule epic Jebwalks in advance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 52 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: How about just to 5-7 days? Just think, you could schedule epic Jebwalks in advance.... Thats true, but tracking storms, and the anticipation of them, is so much fun. Especially the big storms, like GB 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Why is a warm period necessary to change to a snowy one? Why can't a cold dry pattern simply morph into a less cold snowy one? Say the nao tanks. Or the epo relaxes some but doesn't flip. Or the war flexes. Any of those can simply convert this pattern into a snowier one without a torch first. I don't see why going warm makes it more likely that whatever comes after is snow. That's the part I don't get and until I see actual objective data based evidence that a snowy pattern is more likely after a warm one vs coming from a cold dry one I would rather avoid extended shutout patterns. There is no guarantee things are any better and we could just waste 2 weeks. Your last sentence is exactly what I said. But you missed my other statement that giving the atmosphere a relaxation then having the cold return "may" be what is needed to shake a current lousy pattern of bad luck. This is my opinion based on years of obs. You don't have to believe it. I don't need group support nor does it matter that people agree with me. We apparently disagree on the issue. So what. We probably don't like the same food either. Lol. But that doesn't mean we don't share the ultimate desire for it to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Your last sentence is exactly what I said. But you missed my other statement that giving the atmosphere a relaxation then having the cold return "may" be what is needed to shake a current lousy pattern of bad luck. This is my opinion based on years of obs. You don't have to believe it. I don't need group support nor does it matter that people agree with me. We apparently disagree on the issue. So what. We probably don't like the same food either. Lol. But that doesn't mean we don't share the ultimate desire for it to snow. Hoping for a warm pattern in the heart of winter is probably the silliest thing ive ever heard. As PSU said, try wishing for a a different pattern that still involves cold air...like the one we might be getting for the next 2 weeks. Its a different pattern but its not a warm pattern alhough their will be warm days. Hoping for a warm pattern in our areas is very risky because we may never go back to cold. Now go do something useful like checking the temps in Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 the board was revving up for the next snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 This board sure does seem to go down a lot. And for long periods, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: the board was revving up for the next snowstorm. If the euro shifts another 75-100 miles east and fires off the trailing wave off the coast then the next snowstorm is this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 changing the oil i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 10 hours ago, Jebman said: If models were near perfect, tracking storms would be a drag. the tracking would be replaced by planning. probably lots of time saved lol. monday/tuesday could be another light event according to the latest gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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